BEAT the market with these three factors

CreditViolet · #11 7th December 2006, 08:42 PM

I think I originated it

. Seriously I wasnt quoting anybody, its something that I personally believe in

CV

kkseal · #12 8th December 2006, 02:04 AM

Hi friends,

And how do you think you get to see those upmoves/trend reversals on the charts? If everyone was just glued to the charts watching for the next pivot/swing hi, breakout etc would prices ever move up??
It's only because value buyers start buying into a stock at lower levels (where they find more value) that you get to see those upmoves in the first place (traders add to the momentum).
That is why i feel that even if you were doing short-term Technical Trading it pays to have an eye on the Fundamentals of the stock(company) you're buying into (including valuations) because that way you stand to gain from the accumulation by value investors which reduces the probability of your move turning out to be wrong.
Fundamentals can provide one of the best (& zero cost) hedging to your positions.
That is to say Technicals help with the Timing while Fundamentals provide the Insurance.

Regards,
Kalyan.

CreditViolet · #13 8th December 2006, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

That is to say Technicals help with the Timing while Fundamentals provide the Insurance.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Thats exactly the reason one shouldnt look at fundamentals Mr Kalyan.
If I am wrong I want to get out, save my capital and move on to next opportunity.I dont want any insurance. Insurance means ' Oh it will come back.It has to, just look at the balance sheets' Over the years I have seen innumerous amount of sheep taken to the slaughter with those lines.But hey, I am not complaining, as Ed Seykota says ' Fundamentalists try to figure out ways to make trend traders rich'

CV

Agilent · #14 8th December 2006, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

Hi friends,

That is why i feel that even if you were doing short-term Technical Trading it pays to have an eye on the Fundamentals of the stock(company) you're buying into (including valuations) because that way you stand to gain from the accumulation by value investors which reduces the probability of your move turning out to be wrong.
Fundamentals can provide one of the best (& zero cost) hedging to your positions.
That is to say Technicals help with the Timing while Fundamentals provide the Insurance.

Regards,
Kalyan.

All very well in thoery, except, KKS, FA will only talk abt the past and rarely the future ...which could be markedly different

the latter is known only to insiders and their relatives (and maybe to some analysts).

And that's why u have sharp rallies (prompted by imminent or emerging turnarounds) in scrips which have dismal financials and weak balance sheets ... look at Nirlon for example (have u seen their chart ?)

AGILENT

lohiya · #15 8th December 2006, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

And how do you think you get to see those upmoves/trend reversals on the charts? If everyone was just glued to the charts watching for the next pivot/swing hi, breakout etc would prices ever move up??
It's only because value buyers start buying into a stock at lower levels (where they find more value) that you get to see those upmoves in the first place (traders add to the momentum).

Charts depict the supply-demand battle... nothing more, nothing less.
Breakout, trend reversal, momentum etc. is the terminonlogy coined for the analysis of how the supply-demand equilibrium shifts. If every one is glued to the charts I dont think the supply-demand battle will end.
just my 2 cents.

kkseal · #16 8th December 2006, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lohiya

Charts depict the supply-demand battle... nothing more, nothing less.
Breakout, trend reversal, momentum etc. is the terminonlogy coined for the analysis of how the supply-demand equilibrium shifts. If every one is glued to the charts I dont think the supply-demand battle will end.
just my 2 cents.

Right, and may take the liberty to add that the Demand & Supply is created by nothing other than the performance & future prospects of the underlying company.
It's strange how some people are so obsessed with their charts that they fail to recognize or acknowledge this basic fact.

Regards,
Kalyan.

CreditViolet · #17 8th December 2006, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

Right, and may take the liberty to add that the Demand & Supply is created by nothing other than the performance & future prospects of the underlying company.

Disagree. How would you explain the boom and bust cycle of the markets with that theory? What about the recent May crash? What happened to the company fundamentals during that period?

CV

Agilent · #18 8th December 2006, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Disagree. How would you explain the boom and bust cycle of the markets with that theory? What about the recent May crash? What happened to the company fundamentals during that period?

CV

Two of u are on different wavelengths , and each is correct.

Even during the may/June crash, there wd have been nmany individual scrips which may have been steady (or even gained) ... those are the ones whose fundamentals ... I mean future outlook ... wd have been unduly promising , leading to that demand supply mismatch which KKS is talking abt

AGILENT

CreditViolet · #19 8th December 2006, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

Two of u are on different wavelengths , and each is correct.

Even during the may/June crash, there wd have been nmany individual scrips which may have been steady (or even gained) ... those are the ones whose fundamentals ... I mean future outlook ... wd have been unduly promising , leading to that demand supply mismatch which KKS is talking abt

AGILENT

Hi Agilent...
There is no talk of mismatch or anything here..

KK said - the Demand & Supply is created by nothing other than the performance & future prospects of the underlying company.

which is utterly false. The demand and supply is created by the 'perception' of market participants at that time which includes a lot of variables like the economic environment at the time, global macro events etc.Value is a perceptive variable and not something fixed by company fundamentals.

CV

Agilent · #20 8th December 2006, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Hi Agilent...
There is no talk of mismatch or anything here..

KK said - the Demand & Supply is created by nothing other than the performance & future prospects of the underlying company.

which is utterly false. The demand and supply is created by the 'perception' of market participants at that time which includes a lot of variables like the economic environment at the time, global macro events etc.Value is a perceptive variable and not something fixed by company fundamentals.

CV

So u r throwing out FA (and all those fundas abt EPS and PE and all that) into the dustbin ?

So sad

AGILENT

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