Informed traders : how they make their Judgment ?

#12
I think you are confusing the fact that stock-markets discounts economic news 3 to 6 months before an event happens. Traders who follow FA are the one who discounts this. FA traders are very big players, like LIC HNI etc. they support the market when its falling. At the very bottom, its the FA traders who are buying and the TA traders who are selling. Same is true at the peak.

I think FA traders make advanced decisions simply because their perspective is 1 to 5 years and only when the event happens and the same is reflected on the charts, TA traders jumps in for the kill. but its the FA traders who make the big money. its like you take something too close to your eyes and the picture becomes myopic. any decision taken based on that will give a good short term profit.

I accept that TA gives you good entry points and exit points. no doubting that. but when it comes to bigger picture and the bigger profits... its FA all the way...

A good trader will have a mix of both though
Now you are the one who is confusing:confused:.What you are telling is not fundamental analysis rather it is Insidertrading.Fundamental analysis is done on past and present information only like earnings,pe ratio,balancesheet analysis,News etc
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#13
Now you are the one who is confusing:confused:.What you are telling is not fundamental analysis rather it is Insidertrading.Fundamental analysis is done on past and present information only like earnings,pe ratio,balancesheet analysis,News etc
now, what kind of traders would you call LIC, DII, HNI and others who bought at 2500-2600 levels this fall. I doubt they are inside traders...:cool:
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#16
They are long term buyers they buy at every reasonable decline,that is their job.

I didnt say they are insiders.
the point here is those who believe in the company and buy them when they feel the company will give reasonable returns and are trading at reasonable price to book ratios are fundamental investors / traders and they are the first ones to buy a stock. You'll recollect that reliance looked very ugly on the charts at 2500 levels and TA traders were looking for sub 900 levels at that time. It was the FA investors / traders who bought it at 1100 levels and TA traders jumped in when it broke away from 1400 levels.

My point is the candle sticks that make the reversal pattern are made by those who buy on fundamentals. those who buy after the reversal patterns are formed are the one who follow technicals.
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#18
Fundamentals say that it will take multi years for the American Economy to get out of the problem then who bought at 6500 levels?:confused:
true... but those who bought at 6500 levels didnt buy because the rsi or stochastics was saying it as oversold. They bought because they believed that the economy will slowly improve and they are buying very good stocks at a very cheap price. they dont foresee the economy getting worse than it is and believe in the stocks they are buying. they believe in the Fundamentals....
 

riser3

Active Member
#19
some times simple logic works

my friend asked me to buy large amount of shares of gvk power and infra as he too was accumulating @ 19. I din't believe him

his logic was reliance will pump gas one day and gvk power's gas plants in andhra will definitely get a share and hence will get some profit even in margin (nafta to gas conversion) atleast for one quarter

his logic was write and gvk is swinging in 26- 29 sheer 33% profit
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#20
some times simple logic works

my friend asked me to buy large amount of shares of gvk power and infra as he too was accumulating @ 19. I din't believe him

his logic was reliance will pump gas one day and gvk power's gas plants in andhra will definitely get a share and hence will get some profit even in margin (nafta to gas conversion) atleast for one quarter

his logic was write and gvk is swinging in 26- 29 sheer 33% profit
what most people forget is that the charts are just reflection of what traders and investors of a stock think of the economy and how the stock will be affected by the economy. They key word here is think, and is not a reflection of the actual company's performance. Its just the emotions of a lot of people and not the company's P&L account.

When people are **** scared and are selling whatever they have, smart sharks buy and finally when the emotions turn around these sharks sell it back to the same people who are now more than happy to buy it at a much higher price.

e.g. RIL was a stock destined for 700-600 levels as per TA experts just 2 months back. the same experts are giving a projection of 2500-2800 now. exagerated emotions on both sides....
 

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