I want to sell SBI @ Rs.10000 per share - Not kidding

Parv · #91 4th November 2007, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Parv,
Please do not misunderstand this post. I tell you again. My intention is not to redicule you or to find fault with you. I do not intend to annoy or downgrade you in any manner.

Let me explain a little bit more. Just see how much an obsession cost you already. If you analyse it carefully and think over and over again, you will notice that you have an ego to prove that you are right with your analysis. You are concentrating all your energy on one single stock

Instead why can't you think in this manner?

It is my money. One day it assumes the name SBI and on the other day it assumes the name Reliance and on the next day TISCO. Whatever the name may be, ultimately it is my money. There is just the change of the name. That is all. My whole and sole intention is to grow it. As fast as possible and as large as possible and as safe as possible by taking minimum risk. I am not bothered about the temporary names that my money assumes. I am in the market only for this purpose. To grow my money as I said earlier.

Many think it in this manner. I am owning shares of SBI. SBI is a best company. SBI is a best share. It will grow from Rs. xxxx to Rs. xxxxxxx in xxxxx period. While think so and without being aware of it, these persons fall in love with SBI. They stop thinking that it is your money and not SBI. The trap is here. By the time you make Rs. x amount money in SBI shares, there are many other shares like RIIL, Wlachandnagar, Jindal Steel, India Info etc. which have rocketed many times ahead. Had you invested in these companies you would have made 5x money than what you have made in SBI. Got the point. Still confused? You made your first post in this thread on SBI on 25/08/2007. Just see the chart of SBI from that day to today. By investing in SBI, from 25/08/2007 to 03/11/2007 you would have made about 50% gains. Had you invested in RIIL, walchandnagar etc. what would be the money that you might have made?

Think again. What do you have to prove? To whom do you have to prove? Do I know you? DO you know me? For that matter whatever amount of money that you might have made or that you may make here after, does it really matter to me or to anyone in this forum? Think carefully. You will notice that it is nothing but a question of ego and pride. Keep it aside. You will be able to see many new things. You will be able to learn many new things.

Last but not least. Trading is a business. Note that there is no quarrel in business. Only compromises in business. If you quarrel with your customer/partner/supplier or for that matter with any person who is even remotely connected with your business, will you succeed?
I hope I have clarified the matter further.
Thanks and reagrds
R. S. Iyer

Hi RSI,
I read your post, and I am unable to understand why you have got an impression that I am sticking on to only one stock and just because of that I have an ego. I have not mentioned in any of my posts that I have invested in only one stock. Secondly, I appreciate your concern over the caution, but I feel that is because you are not convinced about the fact that SBI can reach Rs. 10000 per share.
You are also saying that Reliance and other stocks have done better than SBI. If I had the conviction that it would have doubled or trippled I would have definitely invested and even now if I am convinced that Reliance can touch Rs. xxxxx per share due to so & so reasons I will definitely invest. Unless and untill we are convinced about a stock whether trading intraday, short term or long term we should never invest. I am definitely not a short term player as far as SBI is concerned. Still I stick to my target and wait patiently.
Also I dint mean to ridicule you too. Since you gave a figure of Rs. 500 for SBI and then stagnate there, I wanted you to come out with the reasons why it will / should stagnate there?

Parv

RSI · #92 4th November 2007, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parv

Hi RSI,
I read your post, and I am unable to understand why you have got an impression that I am sticking on to only one stock and just because of that I have an ego. I have not mentioned in any of my posts that I have invested in only one stock. Secondly, I appreciate your concern over the caution, but I feel that is because you are not convinced about the fact that SBI can reach Rs. 10000 per share.
You are also saying that Reliance and other stocks have done better than SBI. If I had the conviction that it would have doubled or trippled I would have definitely invested and even now if I am convinced that Reliance can touch Rs. xxxxx per share due to so & so reasons I will definitely invest. Unless and untill we are convinced about a stock whether trading intraday, short term or long term we should never invest. I am definitely not a short term player as far as SBI is concerned. Still I stick to my target and wait patiently.
Also I dint mean to ridicule you too. Since you gave a figure of Rs. 500 for SBI and then stagnate there, I wanted you to come out with the reasons why it will / should stagnate there?

Parv

Parv,
That itself is the point I am trying to convince you. You are "convinced" that SBI will goto Rs. 10000/-. Remember trading is not getting "convinced" that a particular share will reach a particular figure or landmark. Your "feel" and "conviction" will turn in to "hope" and lateron to "greed". Trading is all about entering a trend and staying with the trend and trying to get as much as profit as possible from the trend. Trading does not have any scope for having a conviction. When your analysis states that a particular stock is trending and it is time to enter, you enter the trend, stay with it as long as you are making more and more profit and when the market tells you to get out (usually by hitting stop loss) get out. The forget that stock until it qualifies your criteria. Now which stock you select for trading and the method of your trading stock selection, entry, managing stop loss, exit etc. are your own methods and your own parameters. This is where a novice trader is seperated from professional.

You say that you are an investor. Well all right. I do admit that there is a difference between trader and investor. But please note that even in investment also there is no scope for hope and conviction. It is only cool and hard analysis of all available data and all available information about that particular company, its industry etc. to determine its future prospects. Many of us (including myself) do not have enough information to make these types of investment analysis. Whatever analysis we (as an ordinary person with publicly avilable information) make is already discounted in the share price. What we do as analysis such as P/E, PBV, several ratios, cash flows etc. etc. are all based on past and historical data. Market discounts the future and not the past. I sincerely hope you are aware of the difference between the two since you say you are an investor.

This is a hypothetical example. A stock may worth Rs. 20/- today. You think that it is a worthy investment at Rs. 15/- and you are convinced that two years down the line it will be worth Rs. 30/-. So you buy it at Rs. 15/-. But by the time two years elapse, buisness environment has changed so much that the company is in a disadvantageous position. Its future is bleak and now its shares trade at Rs. 10/-. Will you still stick on to your conviction? Will you still buy at Rs.8/- thinking that it is worth at that price? What happened to the conviction which prompted to buy the same shares at Rs. 15/-?

More on this later. It is time to go
Take care
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

mayavi99 · #93 4th November 2007, 04:55 PM

Very good advice Iyer. I await your next post of lessons for new comers like me.

Parv · #94 4th November 2007, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Parv,
That itself is the point I am trying to convince you. You are "convinced" that SBI will goto Rs. 10000/-. Remember trading is not getting "convinced" that a particular share will reach a particular figure or landmark. Your "feel" and "conviction" will turn in to "hope" and lateron to "greed". Trading is all about entering a trend and staying with the trend and trying to get as much as profit as possible from the trend. Trading does not have any scope for having a conviction. When your analysis states that a particular stock is trending and it is time to enter, you enter the trend, stay with it as long as you are making more and more profit and when the market tells you to get out (usually by hitting stop loss) get out. The forget that stock until it qualifies your criteria. Now which stock you select for trading and the method of your trading stock selection, entry, managing stop loss, exit etc. are your own methods and your own parameters. This is where a novice trader is seperated from professional.

You say that you are an investor. Well all right. I do admit that there is a difference between trader and investor. But please note that even in investment also there is no scope for hope and conviction. It is only cool and hard analysis of all available data and all available information about that particular company, its industry etc. to determine its future prospects. Many of us (including myself) do not have enough information to make these types of investment analysis. Whatever analysis we (as an ordinary person with publicly avilable information) make is already discounted in the share price. What we do as analysis such as P/E, PBV, several ratios, cash flows etc. etc. are all based on past and historical data. Market discounts the future and not the past. I sincerely hope you are aware of the difference between the two since you say you are an investor.

This is a hypothetical example. A stock may worth Rs. 20/- today. You think that it is a worthy investment at Rs. 15/- and you are convinced that two years down the line it will be worth Rs. 30/-. So you buy it at Rs. 15/-. But by the time two years elapse, buisness environment has changed so much that the company is in a disadvantageous position. Its future is bleak and now its shares trade at Rs. 10/-. Will you still stick on to your conviction? Will you still buy at Rs.8/- thinking that it is worth at that price? What happened to the conviction which prompted to buy the same shares at Rs. 15/-?

More on this later. It is time to go
Take care
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

Hi RSI,
its easy to talk but very difficult to hold a stock with conviction which I feel you strongly lack. If I can read your mind with your writing you are only a short term trader and not a long term trader. Time only tells whether SBI will reach Rs.10000 or not. If I had taken your advice I would have booked SBI at Rs. 2000 and would have still been waiting for Rs. 500 to come. Your conviction of Rs. 500 for SBI is yet to be substantiated by you and why it has to stagnate from there.
There's a lot of difference between conviction and greed. Just because someone is convinced that SBI will reach Rs. 10000 per share does not mean that he/she is greedy. Just because Rs. 10000 for you is unimaginable does not mean that I am greedy. Moreover I have myself given 3 to 5 years time for SBI to reach the 5 figure mark, then why should I give a stoploss for that. I know people who are convinced that Reliance will reach 5 figure mark, SAIL will reach Rs. 2500 in another 3 years, IDBI will reach Rs. 600 in another 1 year, VSNL now they are telling that it should reach 1300 by another 6 months . I have them too but not many as there are no reasons substantiated as to why it has to go there. SBI I am convinced so I have applied full throtle.

Parv

rajeins@yahoo.com · #95 4th November 2007, 09:02 PM

R s Iyer has given sage counsel in this his post. I would even put it more bluntly. Agree or not shares are like prostitutes unless you own the company your self or gain a controlling interest by investing enough. As you don't control a share otherwise ,market demand genuine or artificially created through money power or deceit can be disastrous on those who exclusively depend on any one share however great it looks. They come the go. Study US market history for better understanding of market dynamics as it is a mature market rather than a growing one like ours.

Parv · #96 4th November 2007, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajeins@*****.com

R s Iyer has given sage counsel in this his post. I would even put it more bluntly. Agree or not shares are like prostitutes unless you own the company your self or gain a controlling interest by investing enough. As you don't control a share otherwise ,market demand genuine or artificially created through money power or deceit can be disastrous on those who exclusively depend on any one share however great it looks. They come the go. Study US market history for better understanding of market dynamics as it is a mature market rather than a growing one like ours.

Shares look like prostitutes only for short term holders. Fundamentally strong companies also do have thier ups & downs but in the long term will always yield good results. One more thing why short term traders look shares as prostitutes is because of the FEAR factor. They are afraid of losing the money. Hence again the conviction factor comes into picture.

Parv

karvy · #97 4th November 2007, 10:50 PM

dear parv,

while advocating investment in SBI for a duration as long as , say 5 years, do you recommend applying stoploss or not?

thankyou

karvy

RSI · #98 4th November 2007, 10:52 PM

Parv,
You have given your time frame as three to five years. I sincerely hope and pray you will have conviction and courage to hold it that long. If SBI touches Rs. 10000/- I will be the first one to congratulate you. Mark my words. It is a promise. I have no hesitation in lauding anyone who is intelligent. As it is I am temporarily halting my postings in this thread. Wish you all the best.
Take care
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

Parv · #99 4th November 2007, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Parv,
You have given your time frame as three to five years. I sincerely hope and pray you will have conviction and courage to hold it that long. If SBI touches Rs. 10000/- I will be the first one to congratulate you. Mark my words. It is a promise. I have no hesitation in lauding anyone who is intelligent. As it is I am temporarily halting my postings in this thread. Wish you all the best.
Take care
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

Thanks RSI

pkjha30 · #**100** 5th November 2007, 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Parv,
You have given your time frame as three to five years. I sincerely hope and pray you will have conviction and courage to hold it that long. If SBI touches Rs. 10000/- I will be the first one to congratulate you. Mark my words. It is a promise. I have no hesitation in lauding anyone who is intelligent. As it is I am temporarily halting my postings in this thread. Wish you all the best.
Take care
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

Well Mr Iyer

I have seen SBI when it crossed 125 and people went absolutely gaga over it and then it fell from those lofty heights during scam periods.That is around 12-14 years before and market was at 2500-3000.

SBI is now above 2000 or more than 20 times, shall I say.

There are many fundamental strengths available to SBI. If Parv continues to hold it irrespective of ups and downs, he will surely be a winner. SBI is not in those category of stocks which you pointed out in your lucid post.

In fact I would go a step further and say that target 10000 is little pessimistic for SBI.If it fails, I am sure other would be in dumps long before and India would again be selling Gold to UK.

Though I have no exposure to this stock, so I am not "Married "
to it nor do I have ego but Such stocks are mainstay of anybody's portfolio.

Short term/intermediate term investment or trading requires different strategy and different mix. In the longer run if one's portfolio gives 20 % return one should be extremely happy unless one only looks for multi baggers like Unitech/RIIL/Jain Corp. But how many are privy to such insider information since fundamentals do not justify prices, expectations do and sometimes they do come true in the hands of able management.

So Parv don't feel ashamed to hold SBI or about telling its likely target or any stockfor that matter ,if you are convinced and know the target price and stop loss (even long term portfolios have stop loss and if you are convinced you can always sell and reenter even at 8 rupees

)

But remember for anything you require a systematic approach and discipline to follow through it.Don't give in to sentiments and panic, fear or greed while investing. You should have clear idea of what it entails and the amount of risk you can carry.

pankaj

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