________________________________________________________
HI
I understand the logic of your arguments.Some say that the Markets are perfectly logical and discount all available information.
**The second school of thaught postiluates that the Markets are irrational and tend to the INTRINSIC VALUE now and then.This implies that the Markets are generally overoptimistic or over pesimistic and swing to the INTRINSIC VALUE eventually.
***I remember many people who in 1994/1995 were of the firm view that their is a big bubble and the Markets are going to crash any day to 3000 levels.For then 3000 was the level forever.Then they were afraid at 10,00 12,00 13,000, 14,000 and now 15,000 levels today.They were all Retail Investors.Some of them i do not find on any board at all today.WHY?
****The theory is simple i.e it is the insiders who set the market levels as they have the best of research and industry dynamics.They stop and consolidate when they are not sure.They accumulate slowely when they become bullish .They release the news after acumulation is over so that the retail can jump in.They help in bidding up the price.The biggest insider is the promoter and his cronies.I can give you many examples of this manipulation.
*****So do i stand a chance against them -- guessing their moves all the time.
******Exceptional situations aside, which are rare, Keynes theory holds the test of time.
*******Hence to have an indipendent view that you can stick by thick and thin you need to know the INTRINSIC VALUE at different periods of time.If the Inerest rates change or Inflation goes up i have to adjust my value.It takes a second on excell.
******** I am a beleiver of the fact that the market swings from one extreme to another.If someone beleives differently i agree with his right to differ.