A tool for Fundamental Analysis

thanks so much suresh!!!

u made my life so easier!!!
keep up d good work :-)

thanks and regards
ritesh

P.S a sincere appreciation

Nice Presentation Keep it up

Automotive Axels

Amazing consistency in EPS/ Dividend growth for the last 6-7 years.
The extract from ICIC direct report provides further info

May 9, 2007
Automotive Axles
Current Price
Rs 575
Potential Upside
24.5%
Target Price
Rs 716
Time Frame
12 months
ICICIdirect Code: AUTAXL
Stock Data
Market Cap (Rs cr) 829.0
Shares Outstanding (crore) 1.51
52-week High (Rs) 684.0
52-week Low (Rs) 336.0
Average Volume 5,294
Absolute Return 3 mth (%) -5.9
Absolute Return 12 mth (%) -10.3
Sensex Return 3 mth (%) -4.1
Sensex Return 12 mth (%) 11.4


Performance
Automotive Axles Ltd (AAL) reported a whopping 57.1% growth in net sales to Rs 157.4 crore while net profit surged 41.8% to Rs 14.4 crore for the quarter ending March 31, 2007 (Q2FY07). EBITDA margins dipped marginally from 17.9% to 17.2%.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
•The strong volume growth from domestic OEMs and surging exports, up 210.5%, supported revenue growth for the company. Net sales were up by a strong 57.1% to Rs 157.4 crore
•Raw material costs-to-sales ratio increased to 260 bps to 68.6%, mainly due to higher inventory. The effect of higher raw material costs has been mitigated by savings in operational and staff costs
•Margins on exports declined, resulting in a dip in EBITDA margins to 17.2%
•PBIT margins dipped 90 bps to 12.6% on domestic sales while it was down by 420 bps on exports
•Interest expenses doubled from Rs 1.1 crore to Rs 2.1 crore while taxation provisions increased by 63.4% to Rs 7.6 crore, restricting net profit growth to 41.8%. AAL reported a net profit of Rs 14.4 crore, translating into an EPS of Rs 9.5 for the quarter
VALUATIONS
We had projected an EPS of Rs 37.5 for FY07 and the company has delivered an EPS of Rs 18.5 in the first six months. We are confident the company will achieve an estimated revenue growth of 26.7% (CAGR) and net profit growth of 25.7% over FY06-08E. We maintain our revenues estimates and reiterate our OUTPERFORMER rating with a target price of Rs 716. At the current price of Rs 575, the stock is trading at 15.3x FY07E EPS and 12.9x FY08E EPS.

HALF-YEARLY PERFORMANCE
ATTRACTIVE VALUATIONS
•Net sales surged 50.5% to Rs 302.7 crore on the back of surging demand from domestic and
export market
•Domestic gross sales grew 38.6% to Rs 300.6 crore while exports surged 277.7% to Rs 45.6
crore
•Higher raw material costs pulled down EBITDA margins by 80 bps to 17.2% despite 43.6%
rise in EBITDA
•Interest costs doubled to Rs 3.9 crore due to the funds raised to finance its capex plans
•Capacity addition resulted into higher depreciation provisions, up 31.9%
•Taxation provision was up 49.8% to Rs 14.5 crore
•Net profit growth was restricted to 40.3% as against EBITDA growth of 43.6% due to higher interest, depreciation and tax provisioning. Net profit margin dipped by 70 bps to 9.2% We had projected an EPS of Rs 37.5 for FY07 and the company has delivered an EPS of Rs 18.5 in the first six months. Considering the strong volume growth from domestic OEMs and buoyant exports, we believe the company would achieve an estimated revenue growth of 26.7% (CAGR) and net profit growth of 25.7% over FY06-08E. We maintain our revenues estimates and continue to rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER with a price target of Rs 716. At the current price of Rs 575, the stock is trading at 15.3x FY07E EPS and 12.9x FY08E EPS.

looks a promising investment for the long run

Risk include the rising interest rate that can dampen the prospects of the auto industry and the rising rupee affecting profitability of the export busness

Attached Files

Automotive Axels.xls (24.5 KB, 109 views)

I have a fundamental perhaps silly question. what is meant by year i 1in rows 20 to 28 of Buffet's tables. . I suppose Year 1 is meant current year 2006-07 at present? Is it ok?

hi

yes you are right year 1 is the most recent year

regards
Suresh

im new to the share market ...can anyone plzz tell me how this tool can help me....as in how do i know tht the company will giv gud returns after i enter all the data in the tool....????

Please find the link below that will give you the theory behind the tool

http://www.sigma-cap.com/wwwhome2/warren_buffet.htm


please use if you find it useful only as a stock screener, In one glance you can get some critical info about the status of the company and stock price.

1. it tells you the current PE and historical PE highs and lows
2. gives the ROE, PBV, Dividend yield current and historical
3. With little additional work one can calculate EPS growth rate
4. A simple Projection based on historical growth
5. and a projection based on ROE and reinvested capital

In most cases the model tells you clearly reasons for a stock quoting at the price that it is quoting

Please bear in mind
1. All the calculations are based on historical values and with no consideration for future
2. Needs adjustments if the stock had bonus/split in the last 7 years
3. You will need many years to realize if the model works or not

Regards
Suresh Kumar

Hi Suresh,

It's simply great that you have developed such a tool and selflessly shared it with all.... This will surely help the lot of the retail investor prune out good quality stocks.... Thanks a million.

If it is ok with you, I would like to share the same on a few other members-only forums of which I am a part of. If its not ok, please let me know and I will certainly not publicise it on other forums.

Thanks a lot & Warm Regards,
-feltra

Thank you suresh for the tool.I am just getting to learn to use it.What do you think about maricoindustries and madras aluminium

Hi Dinesh

Madras aluminium Projection looks very attractive.

but the theory discourages commodity stocks

Regards
Suresh

Attached Files

Madras Aluminium.xls (20.5 KB, 60 views)