Real Time Eur/Usd Live Trade

Saint · #21 18th October 2005, 09:35 PM

I apologise for this intrusion,I really have nothing to add here,being a total ignoramus on Currency Trading..........but I just have got to say this:Nautilus and James Alex,Great stuff,guys..............Super Stuff,and a super thread!!

Very nice!!

Saint

nautilus · #22 18th October 2005, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saint

I apologise for this intrusion,I really have nothing to add here,being a total ignoramus on Currency Trading..........but I just have got to say this:Nautilus and James Alex,Great stuff,guys..............Super Stuff,and a super thread!!

Very nice!!

Saint

Thank you Saint.

Nautilus

psrikant1978 · #23 28th October 2005, 11:21 PM

Nautilus / James,

I have started to trade in the FOREX market. What tools should I be using.?
For Charting ?
Indicators?
Do you have any trading system developed.?

I have a demo account with FXCM.

Your inputs/suggestions on how to get started are very much appreciated.

Thanks
Prashanth

psrikant1978 · #24 28th October 2005, 11:47 PM

Nautilus

Now, the EUR/USD is trading at around 1.2054/6 as i write this. What is your stop-loss now according to your long term target of 0.9650 to 0.9700. How did you calculate your stop-loss.? When do you think this target be acheived.?

Do you mind giving me your email address to discuss further? You can mail me at psrikanthan at ***** dot com.

Thanks
Prashanth

Quote:

Originally Posted by nautilus

Hi commerciante_inde:

This is a difficult question to answer - reason being that I am a trend follower and I trade what I see (in terms of the market behaviour). As per my analysis the Eur/Usd turned bearish around March/April of this year and since then I have been trading the short side of Eur, and as yet nothing tells me that the trend in Euro has turned bullish and my long term objective on Euro is around 0.9650 to 0.9700 and I have brought the stop-losses on my long term positions down to 1.2275.

This is the current state of play as far as my trading is concerned.

Alternative Scenario:

However while trading I also work out an alternative scenario (which keeps me sane) - which is as follows:

1) Among the patterns I study the alternative scenario suggested by one of the patterns is that the Eur/Usd market has the potential to break above 1.2600 and possibly approach 1.27 - 1.28 (as suggested by you) from the current levels of just over 1.2100. This will result in liquidation of all my long term short Eur/Usd positions at 1.2275.

2) But this pattern also suggests that if the Eur/Usd fails around those levels (1.26 -1.28) no damage has been done to the prevailing bear trend in Eur/Usd and further that this bear trend will re-emerge quite aggresively and the Usd will gain an upper hand. The price failure will also be confirmed by some more price patterns - this will also result in a Euro bull trap - Euro bulls will start entering the market just above 1.2600.

3) However if the prices hold quite well above 1.26 and make further progress on the upside- then this will result in Eur/Usd bear trend reversing and Euro going into a bull trend against Usd - at which point I will start trading long Euro against Usd.

I will just trade what I see - no loss of face here!Emotions do not feature in my trading - just execution of the plan.

So to answer your question whether Eur/Usd will reach 1.27-1.28 by Christmas - Its distinctly possible according to the alternative scenario!

Regards

Nautilus

gvnarendra · #25 4th November 2005, 05:52 PM

can any body tell me from where i can download historical datas online freely? I tried with ***** finance where they have not kept any historical datas. I need 5min and daily datas.
gvnarendra

nautilus · #26 5th November 2005, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psrikant1978

Nautilus / James,

I have started to trade in the FOREX market. What tools should I be using.?
For Charting ?
Indicators?
Do you have any trading system developed.?

I have a demo account with FXCM.

Your inputs/suggestions on how to get started are very much appreciated.

Thanks
Prashanth

Hi Prashant:

I would suggest that a reasonably good charting package like Metastock would help you - as it is quite versatile. However there is a free charting software which also provides simple tools as well as free real time FX data called www.netdania.com which you may find useful.

To answer your second question - no I do not use any trading system for trading FX - however it does not mean that one cannot try and develop one.

As regards how to get started - much has been written by many on this forum - if you take time and if you look through different threads on technical analysis on this forum you would find you would get many ideas.

But you will have to look for them - this forum is now becoming a repository of many ideas - so do look through it.

Regards

nautilus

nautilus · #27 5th November 2005, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by psrikant1978

Nautilus

Now, the EUR/USD is trading at around 1.2054/6 as I write this. What is your stop-loss now according to your long term target of 0.9650 to 0.9700. How did you calculate your stop-loss.? When do you think this target be acheived.?

Do you mind giving me your email address to discuss further? You can mail me at psrikanthan at ***** dot com.

Thanks
Prashanth

Hi Prashant:

As of this writing the Eur/Usd closed at 1.1810 on Friday 4th Nov. I will explain in detail how I work out stop-losses on my trades which may or may not help you and other members of the forum.

The stop-losses I use are not arbitrary and they are trailing. I always try and work out a significant point (according to me) on the chart and then the stop-loss is placed.

Here is a realtime example: (for confirmations and further study look at the hourly chart on Eur/Usd at www.netdania.com - the explanation here would make more sense if it is read in context with the chart)

This is how the market dynamics worked on 4th November: If you look at the hourly chart on Eur/Usd you would find that after around 0.30 am on 4th November the Eur/Usd market was not going anywhere and was trading in a very narrow range - this small trading range continued for another 18 hours - then at 18.30 in the evening there was a strong up-thrust making a high of 1.1978. What this did was that all the stop-losses that were placed by traders during the day above the 18 hours of congestion were washed out and the market got rid of most weak shorts. This bar then was followed by another bar (19.30) that made a still higher high of 1.1993 - clearing out further short participants- and then the market started making lows continuously during the entire hour and finally it breached the low of the previous bar at 1.1921 - this resulted in an hourly "key reversal" preceded by a long price congestion - followed by sharp up-thrust resulting in many weak hands being taken out of the market - a very good pattern indeed for a stop-loss placement, so I moved my stop-loss down from 1.2275 to 1.1996 (three pips above the high of 1.1993).

IMPORTANT:

The above action of the market which saw long congestion followed by an up-thrust and then ending up with a massive break down in price is referred to as the PERVERSITY of the market - what this means is that the market makes participation so frustrating that most people end up losing for the day - and those who tried to participate - are shaken off before a LARGE move commences - perversity just prevents people from participating in strong profitable moves. The areas of perverse actions of the markets are significant from the point of placing stop-losses.

I can also suggest that a five day high (if you are short) or a five day low (if you are long) trailing stop works reasonably well. There are many other methods used by different people on this forum - again check out the threads - they will teach you a lot. But most importantly your stop-loss levels must be placed at significant levels.

As regards when the market may or will reach my objectives - the simple answer is I do not know - the market takes its own course - and if it decides that it will not reach my objective then I have an alternative scenario planned - in the meantime if the trade is going in my favour I just manage the trade.

Hope this helps.

Regards

Nautilus

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