Forex Alerts!!!

Hi everyone
This thread could be applicable to anyone who is day trading/swing trading/position trading the forex markets.

I thought I could start to help us alert each other in case we see price on the daily chart goes to extremes(exhausts)so we can take advantage and get a low risk entry.....for swing and/or position trading.

Today, USDCAD pair is tanking and we have had four down days....Market is exhausting on the daily and weekly chart and now very close to key support levels on the quarterly and yearly charts.

For TODAY,
the levels I'm watching to go long are
On the daily chart(1.1384 area) in conjunction with two critical levels on the
quartely(1.11286) and on the yearly(1.11307).

If these levels hold especially the last two, then a long could be considered.

Not sure how many of you trade currency pairs. We can also talk about EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY...yada yada yada.

Note: This thread is not meant as a trade recommendation. It's more to alert each other to keep an eye when price levels reach extremes so we can hopefully take advantage of the impending moves...... we can also educate each other on the currency market in general.

Regards
Shreenath

USDCAD,
Market broke all the three levels I mentioned in my first post earlier today.
Now the question is - is it going to hold at any one of those levels?
If yes, then how far away from the low, will be today's close......closing at 4PM/5PM eastern time(on my charts, July 15, starts at 5pm eastern usa time).

If price doesnt hold those the lowest of those levels, I would wait.....wait for tonights end of the day analysis......

Will likely include Euros for tomorrows trading. If anyone is interested in any other pairs let me know.

I haven't done any research on USDINR. To trade the Rupees we must have enough liquidity;otherwise these dealers will take us to the cleaners........coz the spread will be too wide.....

Regards
Shreenath

Oh..one more thing related to Canadian dollar - volume is comparatively lighter, so spread is too wide between bid and ask.........I tend not to do this for day trading...only for multiple day swings........only Euros, BPs, JYs, CHF seem to be volatile enough but among them probably Euro's the only one I don't mind intraday......

I wouldnt even include USDINR in Forex....it stands nowhere when compard to other major pairs of the world....

Btw, take a look at the USDCHF pair. It has been in a congestion for a really long time on Daily TF now. No levels to watch as such here, just the pattern. A breakout could yield some good pips.


Happy Trading

Ankit
Will look at chf after 4pm eastern here.

I agree;based on some of the posters here INR has prolly years to go before it becomes suitable for forex.

USDCAD seems to be holding both the quarterly and yearly support on my charts. Already in with 1/5 of my overall position for a swing or even a position trade. If it continues to hold might add more tomorrow based on tomorrows price action. Stop already in place for today's entry..

Regards
Shreenath

Ankit,
I did a preliminary mutliple time frame analysis on USDCHF and I fully agree with what you are saying.........
USDCHF has been in a trading range after completing a weekly trend run down on the weekly chart about 7 weeks ago.

When you get a prolonged range contraction like this on higher time frames, this could develop into a huge position trading situation where you wait for the breakout and enter using certain parameters and hold it for days/weeks whatever. Of course we would need a lot of patience because a lot of breakouts tend to be false. But one of my objectives in trading is to make every trade a free trade...wherever possible. I will try to explain this short term pinging situations through canadian dollars soon......

One way to handle this situation is to catch the extreme end of the range and keep pinging until we get a breakout and use the profits from pinging for a wider stop to stay in the trend once it develops. But we've to be careful while we do it since we shudnt be doing when the range on the DAILY chart is contracting to develop into an NR7 or an ID/NR4 situation.

I ran into a nice trading range breakout system by an outstanding long term trader here in the United states; its a very simple system and can be applied manually. I keep wondering whether we can find someone here to code it so we could use it on tradestation and other platforms. I will go search on tradestation forums in case anyone has posted the code for that system.

If you and anyone else is interested I will post that trading plan here soon and then we can alert each other should we get a breakout on the daily/weekly chart out of that trading range. It's generally paintful to monitor each and every market this way and I prefer to use my indicators to alert me during my EOD analysis since I can scan any number of issues as long as I have the data......

If and when this develops into a truly trending situation where you get a move from one end of the extremes to the other on a monthly chart, it could make us a lot of money.

I will post some rudimentary charts tomorrow based on my cursory analysis...
Warm Regards
Shreenath

USD/CAD Update

Hello again everyone,
USD/CAD held its overnight lows.

As long as it holds those levels I mentioned yesterday or even the overnight lows, this market can be milked to take intraday profits to build a cushion when it gets ready for a retracement back up.

Took two units last night at overnight lows(those yearly and quarterly levels might become good support today) and pinged them for a cool 150 pips.....

Strategy now is to wait to see if market tests its overnight lows. Today's support on the daily chart is located in 1.11403-1.11484 area. If this level holds which could happen in today's session anytime, then will use the 150 pips as a potential stop to ping for more.

Just a titbit on Forex markets
These markets tend to have four major intraday trends during the 24 hour session including
1. When Japan market opens
2. When UK Market opens
3. During close of UK Markets
4. When the US markets open and sometimes rally late into USa market hours

For Indians living in India, if unable to participate in US futures markets(due to margin requirements although that has changed since a lot of brokerage firms offer low intra day margins)Forex is a wonderful vehicle to build house capital. YOu don't have to trade big lots; you can trade the mini or micro lots and open an account for as low as $250. But before you do all this
never forget to have
1. A business plan(always treat trading as a business and not a hobby)
2. A clear cut trading plan with entry, exit and risk management rules specified.
3. Self disciplinary rules(not taking a trade = taking a position) including when not to trade; if you are not feeling well, or fought with your neighbor or your wife, or if your cat/dog peed on your keyboard.....and you're feeling bad,,,, you shoudln't be trading..IMO.
4. Never trade intraday in forex pairs with low liquidity or wide spreads. This applies to any market.

Make sure you stay away from GAIN capital.

If anyone is interested in currency pairs involving EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP, we can initiate some daily updates for everyone's benefits.

Thanks
Shreenath

Hi Shreenath,

I am not really an FX trader, have dabbled in some quick scalps, but I am interested in doing some FX trading on the majors with mini contracts.

I am all set up and ready to go, so we can start looking at some charts when you see fit.

Rgds,

UST

Hello US
Mini contracts are the way to start on Forex.

Commission free trading houses for Forex are dime a dozen everywhere. It's hogwash coz spreads are wide and they make their money with the spread.

Best thing about Forex is it helps a small trader to make use of the leverage and build house capital.

If you are interested we can chat about EUR/USD, GbP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF.....among these pairs only the first four appear to have day trading potential; in fact EUR would be ideal if you are into day trading. I tend to do swing trading for Forex and limit my day trading to S&P Emini and sometimes Treasury bond futures and YM futures.

I won't be posting for another three hours since Markets are already active here and S&P opens at 9:30.

Cya later
Shreenath

NP Shreenath,

I fully understand, as trading is a serious business and requires full concentration, no matter what market.

We will speak later and I will have a look at the EUR/USD chart in the meantime and post some levels as to what I think might be areas to watch for targets, probably way off, but lets see what comes out, after all, that is what we are here for-to learn a bit from those with more experience.

Rgds,

Daithi

Nice observation on USDCAD mate....Looking forward to your charts...The US opens in another 7 minutes....So lets see how it goes...