Forex-Science daily Forex report

Daily Currency report for Tuesday Jun 26 2007

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 5.85M 6.00M 5.99M
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 105.5 106.0 108.0
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 900K 925K 981K
Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May -2.0% -1.0% 0.8%
Jun 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/22 NA NA 6902K
Jun 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Jun 28 08:30 Initial Claims 06/23 315K NA 324K
Jun 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 29 29 29
Jun 28 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Income May 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Jun 29 08:30 Core PCE Inflation May 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 58.0 58.0 61.7
Jun 29 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 83.7 84.0 83.7

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3360

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: An amazingly small 35 pip range yesterday did little to change the analysis, and hopefully serves as a continuation of the rally: A bullish week last week after the previous week's "spike low" from support, and now we are holding up around 1.3470 rather nicely. We need to break through tough resistance at 1.3500 early this week (786 Fibonacci resistance, previous barrier, and 10 week SMA) and then on towards 1.3550, and it's probably only a matter of time before we get a new all-time high at 1.3700. Continue to look to buy into dips this week whilst above 1.3360, with key support at the weekly low near 1.3370. Only below here changes our outlook.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3370

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: