is fundamental trading in forex is all luck??

I have a question about fundamental trading .i feel trading on fundamental news in forex is all luck.you have a position if news come right then u have profit if its opposite then loss.also i noticed not all news will have equal response for e.g. I kept a buy order on euro thinking that ECB will hike rates and i expected the euro to increase atleast by 100 pips but to my surprise the euro only increased by 20-30pips.I am really into puzzled situation .Also
applying techical studies in high periods of volatility will be a foolish game.Can anybody tell me how to trade volatility and how to predict the outcome of fundamental news and be succesful in forex trading??May be AM I ASKING THE BEST KEPT SECRET IN FOREX TRADING??????

Nothing is luck, everything is expectancy.Even what we call random or luck is just negative expectancy.

b/w there is nothing like Fundamental Trading...what you describe is called Event trading.


CV

Hi Bhatia,
I have purchased forexmentor course and Peter Bain advises the new traders not to trade the news, but trade the aftermath of news depending on the candle pattern after 15 minutes.If you still want to trade the news ...you can join Felix on www.secretforexsociety.com or www.forexbastards.com where he gives you signals and you have to act within seconds....I guess you have heard about him.....Or you can sraddle the news 10 pips away on both sides adn cancel the order that doesnot get filled and take profit on the order that gets filled.I am also new to forex and I keep trying different strategies with oanda and fxsol.----KK

Fundametal trading is not luck, you have to forecast the news , then wait for the news to come out then if it moves in ur direction, then you make profit.
Some pple ask this question often , " how do i trade the new" there are lots of books out that treats that issue.

Fundamental trading is not luck, you have to forecast the new, that is what is called market consensus, then the market react based on the deviation
if the actual deviated higher than expected or below expectation, then you have oppportunity to profit, so the issue is the expectation game,
Some pple often ask this question " how do i trade the news"
There are lots of books on this issue, that can help
groups.yahoo.com/group/beton4x

Hi,

It highly depend on current scenerio and market preception of news wether it is already priced in or some thing happened surprise. 1st i advice you to decide a strategy to trade than trying a tossing coin game with even trading.A strategy at same time can be anything based from simple tossing coin to lunar phases ( eg The delta phemenon ) or Indicator based system's that you preceive /belive have +ve statistical expectency else you have to cry after loosing capital and think does sucessful trading is possible yes it is possible and done and i proved by public calls on public forums that i can make consistent return and i always focust to make 80 to 150 % per yoy consistently with relatively low drag down on forex and futures . Good lucks Good trading

ps: trading fx with 500 to 1000$ with hyper leverage is waste of time and bandwidth as your forex broker have your edge in his pocket.Also i know this is not answer your are looking for exactly but for clear and correct answer to your question we need to understand wether we observer news from econometric point of view or trader point of view or from our position point of view

Hi,

Its easy to be said than done, i mean straddle type of strategy most of broker misfill during news and stop hunt your account even if you make money randomly during such cases, most of retail forex brokers will reverse your trader later or slip your account with their dealing desk unless your are trading with ECN broker with currenex or Semi ECN atleast dont attempt such strategy and loose your shirts.

ps: Most likely they will warn you if they notice your account grows and if you keep repeating they will ban you and close you account and most of fx broker's are just like casino's they want you to loose for them to make money

His question is not exactly how to trade news but how to forecast impact of news say how can you define a stoploss point before hand based on news or a target price or entry price exactly based in news alone i wonder if any books or course teaches it

The first mistake that traders make is trading news on the extreme short term. That is almost always a gamble and is very unpredictable. Trading fundamentals on the longer term is also very vague and often leads to loss. Warren Buffet and Bill Gates both lost by attempting to predict the U.S. Dollar would go down based on the trade deficit. It is human belief and natural pattern that really govern the markets more than the so called fundamental data. Technical analysis is 100% accurate at revealing what the market is currently in the process of doing. Simple trend following methods on the longer term can be highly accurate with very little emphasis on making predictions just due to the momentum of longer terms and the signals that show reliable entries and exits during a trend.