FII's the Smart money

swagat86 · #1 17th September 2006, 05:21 PM

HEllo FRnds,
Im Just tryin to play a bit Contrarian to the normal viewpoint. Hope no one will mind. Im enclosin a chart which shows the Bar chart of the FII flows in Equities in Las few days. Have a look for urself. The data beginns from September to July end (from left to right). There are hardly any sellings. Last two days are big bars. Just check it Guys.
I have a feeling which i wanna share wid u all. After MAy 06 the memories in the mind of the retailers were bad, no questions about that. Now at this point they were very cautious. So as soon they heard that FII s were selling. The retailers sold off. Now the point im tryin to make. is that If i were an FII will i ever let the commom people know wat is in my mind. ( Told to me By JOy da-JDM).

Excess of any thin is not gud. Being over caustious is a sign of Fear settin in.

We know wat damage greed and Fear can do.

Thanks

karthikmarar · #2 17th September 2006, 08:14 PM

Dear Swagat

A few points to share

Also look at volume in relation with price action. If you can plot the same FII volume with price it will give a nice picture

Over cautious... who ? the few in this forum advocating caution ? The newspapers screaming on the front page about sensex crossing 12000 after four months and market moving smartly after global cues..

Also where do we draw the line between caution and over caution.... rather a thin one ... isn't it?

more on it later after hearing more views ...

regards

Karthik

Czar · #3 18th September 2006, 01:11 AM

i think you have only plotted cash figures ?

also caution or over caution both are good in this market (i.e. if people are doing that) we are just 4 months away from a hugh fall & 90 % of the retailers are bruised burned & battered...they may forget the oct or earlier falls but by any standards this was the worst & it showed to many that valutions were streched... & the market had become insane... I mean any T.D & harry would just buy futures & hold on keep adding will the profit difference & life was a holiday... do we think thats stock market ? the people have tasted the easy money & this hugh rally back up has got the bees buzzing again - the bull markets usually are addictive & the caution which you talk about is a meagre whisper now... everybody looking for a correction & none coming do we want our neighbours to earn & we miss the rally attitude is back without doubt, especially the last monday fall & rise means the biggies are training the mob to buy on dips without the scare of tanks, IMHO. I would suggest again - its better to miss a thousand pts than take a hit of the same, cause a thousand up is majority index dragging but a thousand down hits every darn stock.

you know I heard many people after the fall & many said they lost more than what they made in the entire 3 years ??? stoploss is king & we are supposed to be their slaves not the other way round... but unfornately its usually the other way round... I still hold my targets given by my earlier ID...though time lag but never the same I feel thats where we are headed eventually

PS: dont get me wrong I am not talking about our forum friends, we have been fortunate few to have many wise men around, but the market mob is big & brave but not so wise as them

karthikmarar · #4 18th September 2006, 01:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Czar

the people have tasted the easy money & this hugh rally back up has got the bees buzzing again - the bull markets usually are addictive & the caution which you talk about is a meagre whisper now... everybody looking for a correction & none coming do we want our neighbours to earn & we miss the rally attitude is back without doubt, especially the last monday fall & rise means the biggies are training the mob to buy on dips without the scare of tanks,

Exactly, Czar. That is what I am also trying to get at. Look at the newspaper.
The front page screeming about the bullish market... The sharks are known to use the media very well to their advantage... now is the time for caution..
I wont be surprised if we see some big up moves with huge volumes. Then the sharks could be selling... and down the market will go...

Well.. Just sharing my opinion ...I could be wrong... and do hope I am..

regards

Czar · #5 18th September 2006, 08:58 AM

yup agreed Karthik...the fii's sold in derivatives 251cr (nifty) 151cr (stocks), m.fund were also sellers & we conquered 12K, so I ask who bought ??? Its april deja vu... guys take a break & enjoy till diwali cause there are gonna be lot of fireworks in the market... enjoy the money made from 8.8K to 12K... after all you earned it

as I have been saying earlier, these ops + FII + MF are working together, just on sat I read in eco times... OLD banned bull is very active thru P.notes.... exactly what I had been stressing

swagat86 · #6 19th September 2006, 11:25 AM

FII are had put in another $ 100 million on 18 th again. Maybe this is to Entice the retail guys. But still market sluggish. y is that so? Not much movement at all.Lets c wats is happening. And maybe caution will pay.

But i think still not decisive.

swagat86 · #7 22nd September 2006, 12:30 AM

Check out the latest chart, get ready for New highs but wid an AIR OF CAUTION. Dont throw caustion into the Air.

Thnanks

pkjha30 · #8 22nd September 2006, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Exactly, Czar. That is what I am also trying to get at. Look at the newspaper.
The front page screeming about the bullish market... The sharks are known to use the media very well to their advantage... now is the time for caution..
I wont be surprised if we see some big up moves with huge volumes. Then the sharks could be selling... and down the market will go...

Well.. Just sharing my opinion ...I could be wrong... and do hope I am..

regards

Hi Karthik

This is exactly what happened earlies. Retail investors get caught in because the discipline and swiftness coupled with knowldge which is required, is not present. History has also shown that people are either unwilling to learn or forget the lessons quickly.. But somehow my instinct tell me that if one is not lured by promises of riches, then most of the strong midcaps and Sensex stocks would be doing well over the horizon of six months to one year. Temporary trawling will always be done by the sharks of the market to catch small fishes

Pankaj

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