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#1
20th July 2006, 04:05 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast for '06
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Wednesday, July 19th 2006 Short Term Trend - Bullish 11700-11750 Long Term Trend - Bearish 9800 - 10000 Dow - Short Term Outlook Today was just one of those days that makes you appreciate technical analysis. If you scroll below, you can see my post from Monday where we stated that we could potentially set a lower low in the next few days, but that there would be a major price shift to follow. Today was critical because we showed follow through to the upside after Tuesday's (7/18) sign of strength. Another key item to point out is that we surpassed above the 200-day moving average and we did so with an increase in volume. The key resistance point now is around 11,150 which is the downtrend line from the 11,670.19 high. Dow - Long Term Outlook The Dow is currently setting up a violent double bottom. Odds are we will make a minor penetration through the 10698 low (Actually Occured on Tuesday 7/19). Once we put this low in place, expect the Dow to make a new high for '06. This high will be in the 11,700 - 11,750 range. This high will be reached as early as August 14th and no later than September 1st. Once we reach this target area, the Dow will begin it's 8-year cycle low descent. This sell off will take us down to the sub 10,000 level. Expect the '04 low of 9,708.4 to be tested. This low will come on October 12th. Once this low is in place, the Dow will be ready to begin another multi-year impulsive move up that will take the Industrials to 12,000 and beyond. 
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