Hello,
Those who don't learn from the past are condemned to ..
Is historical price movement relevant for the future? if yes can we learn from the past?
What can we learn from the historical falls during the past few bull runs...
I was looking at the past 3 falls in the last 6 yrs...
Height of bull market: March 2000: PE of 27.4
Bottom of market: Oct 2001: PE of 13.1
Time from height to bottom: 19 months
Height of bull market: March 2002: PE of 19
Bottom of market: May 2003: PE of 10.9
Time from height to bottom: 14 months
Height of bull market: March 2004: PE of 21.6
Bottom of market: Jun 2004: PE of 12.1
Time from height to bottom: 3 months
Height of bull market: May 2006: PE of 20.5
Bottom of market: PE of ??
Time from height to bottom: ??
Did we really see the bottom in 10-12 sessions ?? or we should give it a month or 2 before bottom fishing?
To take the discussion forward I would like know about
What is the phase of market we are in currently?
Please share your views here.
Regards
Sanjay
PS: I find PE values more relevant for value interpretation than index values which can be misleading.
Those who don't learn from the past are condemned to ..
Is historical price movement relevant for the future? if yes can we learn from the past?
What can we learn from the historical falls during the past few bull runs...
I was looking at the past 3 falls in the last 6 yrs...
Height of bull market: March 2000: PE of 27.4
Bottom of market: Oct 2001: PE of 13.1
Time from height to bottom: 19 months
Height of bull market: March 2002: PE of 19
Bottom of market: May 2003: PE of 10.9
Time from height to bottom: 14 months
Height of bull market: March 2004: PE of 21.6
Bottom of market: Jun 2004: PE of 12.1
Time from height to bottom: 3 months
Height of bull market: May 2006: PE of 20.5
Bottom of market: PE of ??
Time from height to bottom: ??
Did we really see the bottom in 10-12 sessions ?? or we should give it a month or 2 before bottom fishing?
To take the discussion forward I would like know about
What is the phase of market we are in currently?
Please share your views here.
Regards
Sanjay
PS: I find PE values more relevant for value interpretation than index values which can be misleading.
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