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#1
26th June 2006, 05:14 PM
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Previous Tops and Corrections!
Hello,
Those who don't learn from the past are condemned to .. Is historical price movement relevant for the future? if yes can we learn from the past? What can we learn from the historical falls during the past few bull runs... I was looking at the past 3 falls in the last 6 yrs... Height of bull market: March 2000: PE of 27.4 Bottom of market: Oct 2001: PE of 13.1 Time from height to bottom: 19 months Height of bull market: March 2002: PE of 19 Bottom of market: May 2003: PE of 10.9 Time from height to bottom: 14 months Height of bull market: March 2004: PE of 21.6 Bottom of market: Jun 2004: PE of 12.1 Time from height to bottom: 3 months Height of bull market: May 2006: PE of 20.5 Bottom of market: PE of ?? Time from height to bottom: ?? Did we really see the bottom in 10-12 sessions ?? or we should give it a month or 2 before bottom fishing? To take the discussion forward I would like know about What is the phase of market we are in currently? Please share your views here. Regards Sanjay PS: I find PE values more relevant for value interpretation than index values which can be misleading. Last edited by SGM; 26th June 2006 at 05:26 PM. 
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#3
26th June 2006, 05:28 PM
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Re: Previous Tops and Corrections!
Quote:
I completely agree with your second line  Regards Sanjay
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#4
26th June 2006, 05:41 PM
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Re: Previous Tops and Corrections!
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#5
26th June 2006, 06:08 PM
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Re: Previous Tops and Corrections!
Quote:
What is the current PE value of index? How to calculate it? Quote:
1. Time from hieght to bottom decreasing so this time market fall could not be last for a long period of time (may be we r already bottomed out at 8800). 2. If u see the difference b/w bull and bottom PE it is 14.3, 8.1, 9.5 so u can see when PE is very high fall is also more and this time PE is 20.5 so fall may be b/w -8.5 to -9.00 (I don't know how much we have fallen) which is a PE of 12 or 11.5 (I don't the current PE). What Seniors say. Thanking You wrgrds Ahmed
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#6
26th June 2006, 06:17 PM
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Re: Previous Tops and Corrections!
Quote:
Thanks for your reply. Sirji, it’s such a nice feeling to get feedback from you. I would like to thank you for providing all of us in the Tradeji Community such an excellent platform to enrich ourselves in so many ways. Regards Sanjay Mehta
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#7
26th June 2006, 06:45 PM
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Re: Previous Tops and Corrections!
Quote:
Please chk out the link http://www.bseindia.com/about/st_key/index_ratios.asp Quote:
But as they say, If Wishes were Horses, ........ The question, still remains are we in an accumalation phase or distribution phase? Regards Sanjay Mehta
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