Market Watch

Madosiva · #1 16th June 2006, 06:44 PM

Markets Next Week (June 19 - 24)

The Markets did get some steam back in to it during the last two days however the Nifty Future is still trading at a discount of around 15 points to the Nifty spot at close today. Inspite of the pull back this gap between Nifty Future and Spot remained throughout the last two trading days and this shows a build up of Short Positions in Nifty Future. Moreover the open interest (Options) in Nifty 'Put' kept adding up and the 'Calls' could'nt keep up indicating that we could witness another fall next week that could ulimately take the market to its bottom.

Moreover FTSE, DAX, CAC and other european market has not witnessed a rally today like the Asian Markets did and this indicates that this relief rally in global markets over the last two days may not last through next week.

So play safe next week and book profits as and when possible as it can help you to do some real bottom fishing.

Thank You,

A.K.Siva

Madosiva · #2 16th June 2006, 07:49 PM

In line with my prediction a couple of hours ago, European Markets are correcting currently from their day's high and many have fallen in to the negative territory.

DOW has opened weak inspite of the enthusiasm shown by the Asian Markets and it may not recover as US Federel Reserve says that they may keep increasing the interest rates till the inflation is contained.

This may have negative impact on Asian/ Indian Markets on Monday and don't be surprised it BSE falls by over 350 points on Monday.

Thank You,

A.K.Siva

Madosiva · #3 19th June 2006, 06:44 PM

Fortunately the Indian Stock Markets moved up and have ended strongly inspite of weak Asian Markets, taking cues from the European Counterparts. The Consumer Spending data released by the Fed in US last Friday helped DOW to cut down its loses and close flat. European Markets are trading firmly right now based on DOW's closing on Friday. Now it will all depend on how DOW behaves today.

The bearish sentiment in global markets seems to be giving way to more positive sentiments. The global markets seems to have digested the news on Interest Rate hikes across many countries and have begun to consolidate. So if the DOW closes strongly today then we can see a run in all major global markets including that of India tommorrow and let's hope the DOW will move up today.

The open interest in 2900, 2950 & 3000 Nifty Call Options has increased considerably today and the Open Interest in Nifty Puts have not increased sharply. This indicates that the market could move up in the days to come, however the discount between Nifty Spot and Futures, which is around 20 points, is still a concern. Thus the Cues from the F&O side is not throwing a clear picture on what we can expect from this market. So global sentiments will continue to rule from some time now and you can expect the markets to move in line with it's global counterparts.

Thank You,

A.K.Siva

Madosiva · #4 23rd June 2006, 09:24 PM

Market Next Week (June 26 - 30)

Nifty has managed to stay above the 3025 level inspite of being range bound through out the day. The discount between the Nifty Futures and Nifty spot closed down and at the end of the day the Nifty futures has been trading at a premium of over 22 points to that of the Nifty Spot. Indications from the the F&O side are positive and signal a trend reversal in the Market. Based on the cues we can expect a strong rally in the market next week. However F&O expiry on Thursday could bring in some volatility, but the indicators as on now indicate a stronger up trend in the markets.

However global markets are not looking that strong. Crude prices are hovering around $70 and have shown no signs of easing in the near future. DOW is trading weak when i am writing this comment. These signs are a bit worrying. Even the inflation data realeased today by the Indian government is not encouraging (the inflation has rised to over 5.2% from 4.72%). So considering these factors we can expect a correction starting from early July. So please book profit whereever possible and have cash in hand to capitalize any further steep corrections in the market.

Stocks to watch: Cosmo Films (is trading near is 52 week high and has given a break out in Price with good volumes today, expect it to touch Rs.135 mark next week)

Indian Infoline - Buy on declines at around Rs.100/-. Can give 50 - 60% return within the next three months.

Neyveli Lignite - This stock corrected by over 50% from its 52 week high during this correction. The 10% divestment by the Government in this company can help its course. Accumulate at Rs.65/- levels with a target of Rs.85/- within a month's time.

Thank You,

A.K.Siva

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