* Deep Thoughts on Market *

Saint · #21 5th June 2006, 01:05 PM

Hi NK,

Quote:

Real estate is another sector where excessive froth has got built in, and I fear people may get even more badly hurt there. Another issue is that real estate sector is totally leveraged, and hence froth unwinding there can be very unsettling for common people. Let me clarify, I am no real estate expert, and so I may be wrong.

Well put,my friend.......an area where people believe in its infallibilty.Can be more hurting to the common man if and when we get a "correction" here.Well,as you put it,no expert on real estate issues either,but time for caution on that front too.

Saint

Saint · #22 5th June 2006, 01:07 PM

Quote:

26 May 2006 !!!

This post is not a signal to buy : -

It’s a bright morning if you are bulls, and very bad morning, if you are bear. Global Asset markets are rallying in unison, be it US, Asia, Commodity, Crude, and Gold. It’s a strong bounce back from oversold equity markets across the world. Remember, few days back I mentioned in my newsletter...........

Great stuff,NK, as always.........

Saint

nkpanjiyar · #23 6th June 2006, 12:11 PM

Thanks Saint and Pankaj for kind words.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

nkpanjiyar · #24 6th June 2006, 12:16 PM

What a market we are in. It appears as if bulls and bears have become friend, and are playing see-saw in India. As a result, we can see lots of pigs on the street. Hey, no offence to anybody – I am referring to – “Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered”

My understanding of what market is trying to say – “Any future market directional decision will be taken by Global Equity market Head Quarters (HQ) –Wall Street”. Does this sound confusing? Let me explain - There is nothing new or unusual in this. We see this all the time in politics, where state units of the political party say that decision on poll alliance or Chief Minister will be taken by party HQ. Sometimes, HQ overrules local considerations while making decision keeping national level perspective in mind.

The same story is happening in Indian equity market. International equity market is not looking at local factors while making asset allocation decisions. Hence, there is no point in talking about GDP growth, and mouth watering valuations; when decision is happening on other macro economic factors. The entire focus for time being is on Fed’s decision on interest rates and its impact on world economy. We receive their money, and are part of global economy, hence we cannot complain.

The moral of the story – Be a good listener. Don’t fight with the market. Understand the factors that drive the market.

Markets do not exist to oblige anyone. Markets will not start rallying because value investor says it’s undervalued, or will start correcting, because value investors are worried on valuations. Markets don’t take dictation from experts. Market has its own logic, and the focus should be to understand the logic. There is no point fighting with market. It can hit you very hard financially.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

pkjha30 · #25 6th June 2006, 01:04 PM

Hi nkp

Don't give market a supernatural aura.It is but one part of the system. If it fails to keep up with the system it will become irrelevant. FIIs are calling shots because we lack the depth due to various factors.At some point of time this situation will change. When equilibrium is lost market will swing.

But it will come back to equilibrium state. What is that state for the market :- to continue to reflect the economy and well being of the people.
If country is stagnant or in dire strait such a situation will get reflected.

I don't see any of that. So it will regain its posture.

As for WEHQ-Wall Street, FIIs selling are concerned we are integrated into world system like never before so we will be affected when rest of them are affected.Remember what FIIs are investing is the confidence of their investor and their need to see money grow. If we fail to grow they will look elsewhere.

For that we can't blame others.

What we can blame is the kind of manipulations in the market which happens due to money power. This is true ever since market come into existence.

The necessity to have a proper regulation is an ever evolving need.

Lastly the kind of money which is invested by FII even now is much more than these tiny withdrawals. Market gyrations are due to lack of depth.

If they were to withdraw now or in three-four months they may loose equally and when nothing else remain to defend bear can also be a good thing for dinner.

Pankaj

nkpanjiyar · #26 7th June 2006, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkjha30

... supernatural aura....

Liked the word

. Hey Pankaj no intention of that! By the way things are very choppy at present and requires steel nerve. Testing my patience tooo

.

Came across very nice article.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...etheWorld.aspx

You will appreciate the neutral view of author.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

pkjha30 · #27 7th June 2006, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nkpanjiyar

Liked the word . Hey Pankaj no intention of that! By the way things are very choppy at present and requires steel nerve. Testing my patience tooo .

Came across very nice article.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...etheWorld.aspx

You will appreciate the neutral view of author.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

HI NKP

You have a nerve of steel. With your insightful articles I understand that your clarity of thought able to pierce through the fog and darkenss.

One need to be aware of things other than the market scenario to appreciate what is happening.

I have stopped watching business tv channels for about six months.This has calmed my nerves which used to be jittery after seeing my portfolio jump heaven and hell. Now it is fine with me. FIIs have no other choice. I have seen them buying while trying to keep indices down to keep sentiments of investors in tune with global sentiments.

In all development indicators, India is showing great progress yet the distance to cover is long. So we will be firmly on growth path unless Govt does something stupid.

I had reviewed Jubak's article on the role of bank of japan in current meltdown few days ago in this forum. Now jubak says it is not a global melt down. I tend to agree. Financial market tend to exaggerate the crisis as per their perception. His perception about interest rate is in line with the theory.Unique situation in japan will force BOJ to raise the interest rate.Cheap money will no longer be available . Higher interest rate will slow the growth. But if it is not raised in tendem with USA there will be flight of capital from India to USA. Secondly rupee support operation will attract money speculators. Lastly , liquidity is not easily sucked out of the system without damaging growth.

So if Central banks take any false step they will only endanger world economy. Ultimately motive is to grow at a sustainable pace. FIIs would be the last one to endanger this. So when inflow is slow the market will meander. Soon others will realise what FIIs are doing and we might see the bottom and then try to pick up some pearls

If I am not able to get some points please forgive me, economy is not my forte. By next crisis it will be

Pankaj

nkpanjiyar · #28 8th June 2006, 09:39 AM

For all dear friends/forum members out there:

"When in panic, fear or doubt"
Drink in barrels, eat and shout"

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

pkjha30 · #29 8th June 2006, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nkpanjiyar

For all dear friends/forum members out there:

"When in panic, fear or doubt"
Drink in barrels, eat and shout"

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

No Bear for me

I am tetotaller.

Pankaj

pranayd · #30 8th June 2006, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkjha30

No Bear for me

I am tetotaller.

Pankaj

You dont need beer when you can get a highs (when the market is up) and kicks (when the market is down) from the market itself

Pranay

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*** Deep Thoughts on Market ***

* Deep Thoughts on Market *