20-Nov2011 Nifty Outlook: We were assuming short term uptrend to be continued until important neckline 5150 line breaks down before we come to any conclusion that an intermediate top has been formed. On Friday, nifty broke all imp support levels suggesting that selling pressure has resumed in nifty.
Analysis: On Thursday Nifty touched very important support level 5000 but on Friday it broke this level decisively with rising vol more than 10day average giving sign of strong selling pressure. Important observations are:
>>Nifty has broken 5000 level decisively and weekly closing suggests that intermediate rally is over.
>>RSI levels broke their neckline and are trading well below their 20day short moving averages.
>>Nifty broke all the important support levels with rising volumes suggesting strong downtrend.
>>Nifty has cut its 50day SMA line on thursday and weekly closing confirmed this.
Conclusion: In view of the above observations, we are having prediction that the intermediate downtrend has begun. Currently Nifty is oversold for short term, pullback rally upto 5000 cannot be ruled out. But it will encounter resistance at 5037-5065 and 5200 resistance should prevent any further upside rallies.
We have two strategies:
Positional trade: Go short in Nifty at 5030-5060 levels with Stop loss at 5200 and target of 4700.
Short term trade: Short at 5050 levels with stop loss at 5150 and target of 4850.
*Disclaimer: Trading markets involves potential risks. Technical analysis deals in probabilities only not certainties. We will not be responsible for any financial loss.
Analysis: On Thursday Nifty touched very important support level 5000 but on Friday it broke this level decisively with rising vol more than 10day average giving sign of strong selling pressure. Important observations are:
>>Nifty has broken 5000 level decisively and weekly closing suggests that intermediate rally is over.
>>RSI levels broke their neckline and are trading well below their 20day short moving averages.
>>Nifty broke all the important support levels with rising volumes suggesting strong downtrend.
>>Nifty has cut its 50day SMA line on thursday and weekly closing confirmed this.
Conclusion: In view of the above observations, we are having prediction that the intermediate downtrend has begun. Currently Nifty is oversold for short term, pullback rally upto 5000 cannot be ruled out. But it will encounter resistance at 5037-5065 and 5200 resistance should prevent any further upside rallies.
We have two strategies:
Positional trade: Go short in Nifty at 5030-5060 levels with Stop loss at 5200 and target of 4700.
Short term trade: Short at 5050 levels with stop loss at 5150 and target of 4850.
*Disclaimer: Trading markets involves potential risks. Technical analysis deals in probabilities only not certainties. We will not be responsible for any financial loss.
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