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| Discuss BSE short term top? at the Equities within the Traderji.com - Discussion forum for Stocks Commodities & Forex; Hi! I live in the states but have been tracking the BSE, plus several other ... |
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#1
8th April 2006, 11:58 PM
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BSE short term top?
Hi!
I live in the states but have been tracking the BSE, plus several other country's stock indices for some time now. A friend suggested I post my findings here for your review from an outsiders perspective. The bull market in the BSE started in Oct 2001. Primary wave 1 peaked in the spring 2002 and Primary 2 ended in the fall of the same year. From that point on, the BSE rallied in a Primary wave 3 which topped in Jan 2005. Then an irregular Primary wave 4 correction ended in the spring of 2005. From the April 2005 low I can now count three Major waves: Oct - Nov - Apr, with two more waves to go to complete Primary wave 5. Short term: the BSE might have just ended Major wave 3 on friday with its attempt at 12,000. A close below 11,000 will confirm that count. Major support is at 10,000 - 10,500. For a look at the BSE charts and many others visit my blog: http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroew/ And click on the chart link to the right. Best to your investing! tony 
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#2
9th April 2006, 07:31 AM
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Re: BSE short term top?
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#4
9th April 2006, 10:02 AM
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Re: BSE short term top?
Hi Tony,
I am fine . thankyou. It would be a great experience to have you on the forum. Your vast experience in the field of technical/ eliottwave analysis would be of great benifit to the trading community here . As far as bse sensex is concerned I think the uptrend is not done yet. I am counting the recent high as subminute wave (iii) of minute iii (circled) of minor wave 5 of intermediate (5). So you see I have not changed my count yet, though I have an inkling of a possible extension of the minor wave 3 of (5). So i am sticking to my old count still and also updating my alternate count regularly. Regards, vinay
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#5
9th April 2006, 10:08 PM
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Re: BSE short term top?
Hi Vinay,
Yes we have a slightly different count. But it is good that you stay with what is working for you. You appear to still have the BSE in primary wave III correct? And we're approaching the end of primary wave III, with subdividing waves in Intermediate wave 5, yes? This is what I summized from your charts  tony
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#6
10th April 2006, 08:43 PM
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Re: BSE short term top?
Hi tony,
No. I think sensex is in last wave of the bullrun which began in sept.2001. The possibility of extention of this last wave is there. On the large time frame I am of the view that India began a new GSC in the 1930s and we will be finishing the first SC wave of this new GSC as we entered in last cycle wave V at 2001 lows. This is my area of study nowadays. Moreover, read your China views, on your space . Really of great interest. Agree fully with you on china entering new bull phase. But I hear people (Guru's) saying "China is a Bubble India a real story". May be in the long run ! As India is catching up. But a lot to be done here. Your views on India? Regards, vinay
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#7
10th April 2006, 09:10 PM
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Re: BSE short term top?
Hi Vinay,
I see the BSE completing Major wave 3 of Primary wave V from the 2001 low. Would expect a correction soon to complete Major wave 4, then a rally to new highs to complete the bull market. Agree with your views of the Supercycle. Yes, I have this entire 2001 - 200? bull market as cycle wave [1]. In regard to China. The bubble has already been deflated over the past few years. Now, their market is rising from reasonable evaluation levels. Expect the negative sentiment to continue for a while. It helps feed the rally. best regards, tony
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#8
17th April 2006, 06:01 AM
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Re: BSE short term top?
Hi!
As expected, the BSE appears to have completed an intermediate term top. Since this was quite an extended wave: Oct '05 - Apr '06 (7,656 - 11,931) we could witness quite a correction. I have EW support pivot points at the following levels: 10,784; 10,377; 9,897 and 9,713. One of these levels should hold and provide support during this: Major wave 4. For a view of the charts, visit my blog: http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroew/ and click the chart link on the right; the BSE is the third and fourth chart down on the first page. Good luck and good trading! tony
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#9
17th April 2006, 06:25 PM
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Re: BSE short term top?
With due respect to the seniors here,
I think from what i have gathered if in the wake of this movement on Monday,if 11660 holds out then we r again looking at new highs. What do you people suggest?
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#10
17th April 2006, 07:17 PM
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Re: BSE short term top?
Hi Amit,
The market was surely oversold going into today. Not sure how 11,660 works into the scenario, maybe you can explain. Lets see what the rest of the week brings. tony
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