Financial Analysis - required

#1
Hi All,

I have invested a lot of my savings in the Stock Market for the last 4 months. During this time market has seen ups and downs so as my scrip values. At this moment, I need someone to please take a look at my investment portfolio and suggest what I could have done or can do in future to make better profits:

Investment Period: December-2010 to April-2011
My Total Savings Invested in the Scrips: 406,609.80
Profit that I have made so far after selling scrips: 3674.00
Current Value of my investment p/f: 405,079.00

Can Someone here please give me suggestion after looking at my scrips and investment portfolio what should I do. This is the sitation of my p/f as of 20/11/2011

Kind Regards
DesiG
 

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sanjosedesi

Well-Known Member
#2
Investment Period: December-2010 to April-2011
My Total Savings Invested in the Scrips: 406,609.80
Profit that I have made so far after selling scrips: 3674.00
Current Value of my investment p/f: 405,079.00
You chose the absolute best time to enter the market !! Way to time the market !! If you were reading this forum, you might have seen warnings saying "market crash is ahead". Anyway ...

I do not know how each scrip is going to behave. However, the market corrected sharply ... there was a lot of panic. Now things have improved and a lot of people are saying it will go up even more. If the market indeed goes up, the scrips which have over-corrected might return better yields. But given the global scenario, there is no real predicting if there is not another crash ahead.

However, I think more than looking at your individual scrips and deciding what to do, you need to look at your overall investment objectives. What are you trying to do? Is this 4 Lacs all the savings you have and you put that in the market? Or is this risk money (as if any money is risk money) where you are trying to achieve a higher rate of growth as you have quite a bit stashed in non risk areas? Do you have some part of savings put up in gold or something similar? Do not start investing in gold after reading this, that's just a question. How close are you to retirement and hence how much safety do you need in life? What portions of your earnings are you able to invest in market every month?

And finally, what made you invest in these specific companies?

The answers to these questions will determine whether you are looking for short term stock tips, or want to take care of your portfolio over long term. I may not be able to help with either, but I think these questions will help you understand your financial objectives a tiny bit.
 
#3
Thanks a lot for your reply to my question, please see my replies inline, marked in color:

You chose the absolute best time to enter the market !! Way to time the market !! If you were reading this forum, you might have seen warnings saying "market crash is ahead". Anyway ...

I do not know how each scrip is going to behave. However, the market corrected sharply ... there was a lot of panic. Now things have improved and a lot of people are saying it will go up even more. If the market indeed goes up, the scrips which have over-corrected might return better yields. But given the global scenario, there is no real predicting if there is not another crash ahead.

However, I think more than looking at your individual scrips and deciding what to do, you need to look at your overall investment objectives.

What are you trying to do?

My Intention is to make better profits from Stock Market than saving my money in bank account and earning an interest of 9%. I am looking forward to earn at least 18-20 % of return on my investment overall.

Is this 4 Lacs all the savings you have and you put that in the market?

Not really. I have invested in land as well.

Or is this risk money (as if any money is risk money) where you are trying to achieve a higher rate of growth as you have quite a bit stashed in non risk areas?

I am not able to understand if my investment is termed as “risk money” but yes I want to achieve a higher rate of growth on this money. As said earlier, I have invested in residential land as well that I am sure will only go higher.

Do you have some part of savings put up in gold or something similar?

No, I have not yet invested in gold but kind of regret now. As when I started investing in market, gold was at 18K and silver at 35K and we can see both have returned good profits as of today’s market rate.

Do not start investing in gold after reading this, that's just a question.

I was also thinking of withdrawing money out of scrips and put that in Silver. Seems like silver is going to touch 1 lakh for a kg. Any take on this?

How close are you to retirement and hence how much safety do you need in life?

I am not yet close to my retirement. I am 30 now. I would like to invest my money wisely with good profits.

What portions of your earnings are you able to invest in market every month?

I can invest about 5k every month of my total earning, if you can suggest a better SIP or something similar.

And finally, what made you invest in these specific companies?

Before starting to invest in the market, I was watching CNBC-Awaz and reading about market online (traderji), newspaper etc. There are so many companies and its not easy to keep track of all of them. So I chose to invest in companies for which I found tips and which seemed to be on a lesser price then their peak times. I may have missed a lot of companies, which would have returned better profits then my investment during this time. But what I think is that I am not really able to decide on what time to get out of a company and then re-enter.

The answers to these questions will determine whether you are looking for short term stock tips, or want to take care of your portfolio over long term.

I am looking forward to stay invested in the market for a long term. I would love to stay in a company with 6-12 month.

I may not be able to help with either, but I think these questions will help you understand your financial objectives a tiny bit.
 

sanjosedesi

Well-Known Member
#4
Ok, good answers. I think other members here will be more knowledgable in individual stocks and you should wait for their answers too. I personally own only one of the stocks from your list and I am anyway not qualified to comment on most of them.

A quick summary of your situation is that you are young and have enough time to save, from this portfolio you seek high returns, and can take some risks. While you chose stocks the wrong way by hearing through grapevine (wrong way entirely in my opinion, others may differ), you are not trying to play blindly in a double or quit fashion which is good.

Given your age, this investment is only a small stepping stone towards your future investments. If you can start to invest well, the returns will be phenomenal.

If you keep an eye on the market, unless we are going through "great depression" kind of events, the markets are not going to move 100% in a year.

Anyway, in my opinion,

#1. Base Growth.
One strategy is to stick with a handful of companies who you consider the market leaders not on the basis of how many ads you see on TV from them, but based on their standing in the industry and their track record (growth) for the last few years. If India is going to grow, they are going to grow. If India will be the world's #2 or #3 economy in 2050, state bank (biggest govt bank) or ICICI bank (biggest private bank) has be one of the biggest enterprises ... unless there is a lot of mergers and acquisitions by foreign banks, or a big stumble, but you will see those signs in advance.

#2. The Edge.
After doing all this, you should be looking to invest part of your portfolio (maybe 10%) which will give even higher results ... I think people call them multi-baggers. These will be slightly risky bets but if they do work, you will get fantastic year over year returns. Sort of another Reliance (in the 80s), or Infosys (in the 90s) and so on. Or this could be done just by day trading if you feel up to it.

#3. Profit Taking.
As I said, it is unlikely you will see a 100% move up or down every year. Maybe once in a decade. Under normal circumstances, if you gain 25% or more at any point of time, you could look at rebalancing your gains and feed them into other companies which have not risen as much ... but please remember that you need to have conviction that these companies are still market leaders. They will eventually catch up. [ You do not have to cash out fully, you can book partial profits. ] You can always make a call to get back into the security ... nothing goes up forever, except silver ... nowadays.

#4. Taxes and Compounding.
If you do short term trades, you end up paying taxes so your returns have to be equally higher with trading setup. But if you can reduce your taxes by holding long term, it gives a good compounding effect year over year. There are many people who can compound better doing short trades even after paying taxes, and you will find many on this forums, but those are good traders ... and unless you can become one, keep most of your money as investments and a small part as speculation. But in my opinion, trading is a full time job ... while you might be listening to a CNBC guy yapping about a stock, you may not be listening the next time someone is saying something negative. If you do not get good balanced information, you might make some bad calls.

#5. SIPs.
You can do them on mutual funds only (maybe you can something in stocks too ... I am not aware). Mutual funds is a valid alternate investment mechanism. Picking companies however researched can be risky, and MFs help you shield from the ups and downs of a bad bet. The results may not be as great, but the downside also may not be as bad. They do have significant expenses which I do not like. There are websites where you can see their figures. They come in some categories ... balanced (where equity is low), growth or equity (which is primarily equity), opportunity (where they are betting on certain stocks) and sector funds. Find an MF which has given consistent returns (in line with the market, or better), has a good asset base (so that you know it is not experimental) and distribute your investment amongst 3-4 of them. With 5K per month, maybe you can do only 5 since they require 1K minimum (again, my memory, check the facts).

You can always do a manual SIP in stocks.

#6. Asset allocation
I do not have any opinion on gold / silver now. It might continue to go up, it might crash. However, as a long term strategy, you should keep some money in gold, some in real estate, some in debt (bonds) and some in equity. How you allocate funds between them is beyond my expertise, but start with some numbers and you can keep on rebalancing every quarter or year. You do not have to move your profits from stock to stock, you can move it to gold and so on.

Sorry this is a bit off track from your original questions, but I think if you focus on your investment process, the individual investments will get taken care of anyway. You have decades of investments to do, do it right !!
 

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