Portfolio for New Year 2006 ...

lawrieking · #11 9th January 2006, 04:16 PM

What you say of Wipro/Gateway Distri? Any Inputs

nkpanjiyar · #12 9th January 2006, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkjha30

Hi nkpanjiar

What is your opinion about MSK Projects given that the focus is very much on infrastructure in 2006. Sure it is not in L&T, IVRCL category yet may prove dark horse . As of now its CMP is 95( YH125 and YL 33).

Result UnAudited
Period--- 01 Jul 05---30 Sep 05
Description Value(Rs. million)
Net Sales 157.68
Other Income 4.16
Total Income 161.83
Expenditure -134.44
Operating Profit 27.4
Interest -4.29
Gross Profit 23.11
Depreciation -5.33
Profit before Tax 17.78
Tax -1.41
Profit after Tax 16.38
Net Profit 16.38
Equity Capital 146.18
Reserves -
EPS 1.31

Your analysis will be appreciated.

Regards
Pankaj

Dear Pankaj,

I looked for Last 4 quarter sales...(this is in crores)

Period: Sep'05 -- Jun'05 -- Mar'05 -- Dec'04

Sales: 15.77 -- 20.92 -- 26.89 -- 24.36

We can see huge variations yealy results

Operating Income: 78.21 -- 73.37 -- 52.28 -- 27.48 -- 27.48
Operating Profit: 8.44 -- 8.92 -- 12.94 -- 10.24 -- 9.23

The company grows in spurts (depends when it gets tenders and all).

The operating profits have not kept up in tune with sales.

While sales(operating income) increased 3 times, profits remained stagnant. A reason which is not +ve .

Looking from

Total Net Current Assets : 39.90
While Market Cap : 114.45 Cr

Again a reason which is not +ve for picking

A profit of 8-9 crores and mcap of 95 crores... nothing much left for new investors I would guess.

Looked at some more parameters for MSK, did not find something, which enthuses or strikes as a great pick.

Of course it can hit circuits (that’s a different thing I should say).

Hope this may help.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

nkpanjiyar · #13 10th January 2006, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lawrieking

NKP,

GR8 Thread.

King

Thanks King.

nkpanjiyar · #14 10th January 2006, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lawrieking

What you say of Wipro/Gateway Distri? Any Inputs

Regarding Gateway Distriparks Ltd., its HOLD if you are already in.

Few inputs are:

Gateway Distriparks Ltd. (GDL) functions as an intermediary and provides logistical support services for international trade – imports and exports. The company has a pan India presence as its operations are spread across cities – including Navi Mumbai, Chennai, Vizag and Garhi. GDL continues to hold a dominant market share in the CFS market, a critical element in the international trade.

Key highlights
¨ GDL is strategically positioned to benefit from a growing logistics sector that is slated to grow at a faster pace in India in the next five years.

¨ GDL has successfully raised USD85mn through the GDR issue in Q3FY06. The company would expand its operations through the organic and the inorganic route.

¨ GDL has shown 27% growth in container traffic at 104,112 TEUs in the H1FY06 over the previous year.

¨ GDL has also signed an agreement with Concor for providing ICD facilities and rail connectivity to various gateway ports for export and import from the Gurgaon facility.

¨ GDL is expected to diversify organically into the lucrative supply chain market with cold storage chains.

It is expected that the company’s revenue to grow from Rs368.2mnn to Rs386.6mn, a sequential growth of 5% in Q3FY06E. While, market expect the company to maintain steady growth, the recent fund raising by way of GDR issue would enable the company to grow faster by chartering into supply chain market and rail connectivity.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

nkpanjiyar · #15 10th January 2006, 05:12 PM

Wipro - BUY

Wipro in a bid to strengthen and expand its offering in the financial services and product engineering space acquired two companies namely mPower (along with MPACT a JV between mPower and MasterCard) and NewLogic in Q3FY06. It is likely to go for more M&A’s but only in particular niches.

Wipro has under performed the Nifty in the last few quarters on account

a) continued weakness in its BPO business as the company shifts from voice business to non voice business and

b) lower growth in EBIT in the last three of the four quarters. The BPO business is expected to start contributing to the bottomline increasingly - driven by margin expansion rather than revenue growth.

Market expect Wipro’s EPS to grow at a three year CAGR of 24.1%. At the current PER of 34.7x FY06E and 26.8xFY07E, the stock may look fully valued from the perspective of its historical PER but as growth is expected in the coming quarters.

The key investment highlights are:

¨ It is among the most diversified IT company with the top client contributing only 3.2% to revenues and top five only 14.6%.

¨ Wipro’s BPO business has been a laggard in the last few quarters but is expected to increasingly contribute to the bottomline by the end of Q4FY06E, improving margins.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

supratik · #16 10th January 2006, 06:30 PM

My look out for IT scripts, would be to wait and watch till the quarter results.

Also P/E ratios to increase to 30-35 and the main profits would be reflected later this year as the companies to my view are getting over-valued. Looking at the current scenarios, the companies have replicated almost a 1.5-2 times.

Say Infosys, moves up from 2400-3100 levels. However, it would be better if we could find out scripts that are still undervalued and unnoticed - easier said than done, agree.

So the strategy would be to look out for counters like MPHASIS BFL that mutual funds are picking up stake in.

Wipro on the other hand would mainly be based on s/w development, so the BPO business is not of a concern in this regard.
Also the frontline s/w counters would face stiff competition from their peers on terms of both work and attrition.

So, perhaps we could wait little more time to justify this unknown zone the sensex is trading.

Your views and suggestions are appreciable.

Thanks and Regards
Supratik

nkpanjiyar · #17 10th January 2006, 06:43 PM

Supratik, thanks for pouring your ideas and I do agree with you in looking for some undervalued counters.

One counter in my mind is Allsec Technologies.

Allsec Technologies commissioned its 1,000-seater facility in July 2005, which is expected to be fully utilized by the end of this fiscal. The company also acquired B2K Corporation in Bangalore in December 2005 to augment its tech support business.

The acquired company will help Allsec to

a) reduce its dependence on the voice business,
b) to pursue tech support as a separate business vertical and
c) diversify geographically. Currently, the stock is quoting at a PER of 14.2X FY06E and 9.3xFY07E but its expanding client list, superior margins and PAT growth of 62.3% over the next three years prompts us to continue our Buy rating.

The key investment highlights are:

¨ The new facility commissioned in July 2005 will increase the seating capacity by 1,000 to 1,700 by this fiscal year-end. This could potentially translate into additional revenues of Rs300-350mn in FY06E and Rs500-550mn in FY07E. The acquired facility is further expected to add 10% to the company’s topline and bottomline in FY07E.

¨ Allsec has the highest margins among peers with EBITDA and net margins at 29.2% and 24.3%, respectively, due to better utilization of available resources. It has agent to seat ratio of 1.8x –the best in the industry, driven
by offline CQM work that is done in the daytime.

¨ Allsec has acquired five to six additional clients since listing in May 2005. and this has helped the company to reduce its dependence on Compucredit. The company also added one client in Australia and is jointly marketing its CQM business with a BPO in Australia. This is expected to help the company in further optimizing its resources and maintain margins.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

pkjha30 · #18 10th January 2006, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nkpanjiyar

Dear Pankaj,

Looked at some more parameters for MSK, did not find something, which enthuses or strikes as a great pick.

Hope this may help.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

Hi nkp

Thanks a lot for cogent reply. It helps not only in decision making but also in evaluating other stocks.

Regards, as always
pankaj

nkpanjiyar · #19 17th January 2006, 11:17 PM

Few reco for 2006 from my known sources believed to be reliable:

Stock----"CMP as on 16 Jan"----Target----"Time Frame (In months)"

BHEL----1462----2100----8 Or 10
GUJ AMBUJA----89----130----6 Or 8
ITC----145----250 ----8 Or 10
IOC----551----750----8 Or 10
INFOSYS----2846----360----6 Or 8
SBI----924----1275----6 Or 8
BHARTI----334----400----4 Or 5
GRASIM----1448----2000----8 Or 10
NALCO----234----365----8 Or 10
ONGC----1216----1400----4 Or 6
TATA MOTORS----643----750----4 Or 6
RELIANCE----885(Long Term Buy)
MAH&MAH----520(Long Term Buy)

cheers,
nkpanjiyar

Note - I have position in all scripts.

neel1002 · #20 17th January 2006, 11:26 PM

Dear NKPANJIYAR saab...

BHEL----1462----2100----8 Or 10
GUJ AMBUJA----89----130----6 Or 8
ITC----145----250 ----8 Or 10
IOC----551----750----8 Or 10
INFOSYS----2846----360----6 Or 8
SBI----924----1275----6 Or 8
BHARTI----334----400----4 Or 5
GRASIM----1448----2000----8 Or 10
NALCO----234----365----8 Or 10
ONGC----1216----1400----4 Or 6
TATA MOTORS----643----750----4 Or 6
RELIANCE----885(Long Term Buy)
MAH&MAH----520(Long Term Buy)

What is these "4 Or 6" "8 Or 10" standing for ?? Weeks or months or years ?
Ragards,

NEEL

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