Why this noise?

comerciante_inde · #1 22nd September 2005, 03:55 PM

More than the negative numbers it is actually the noise which has caused the panic today.

The noise that doomsday for Indian stocks is just around the corner .. with the FII's having turned sellers ... based on one day of FII negative numbers.

What is not understood is

>>> A 200 point fall on Sensex right now is no more than a 100 odd point fall when it was at 4000. Now that the index has more than doubled from say 4000 levels, what is the point in harping on a 200 point fall in the market and fearing the worst.

>>> All said and done India still remains as an attractive investment destination for FII. In this year alone Mutual Funds in Europe raised 250 Billion Euros (308 Billion USD) .. in the US this figure was around 170 Billion USD. Nobody can reason against the fact that a small part of it anyway has to flow into countries like India. Consider the fact that this year YTD in Europe the 'Fidelity India Opportunities Fund' was the second highest grosser in Europe , just a shade behind a fund from the leader DWS.

>>> Sometime back nobody bothered to hear even a word against much-in-demand penny stocks.. small caps.. et al. The logical end to such stories shouldn't change the perception about fundamentals of companies doing well.

>>> Looking into a slightly more detail in Nifty F&O, some very positive signals are obvious there. It is just that we need to sit and think rationally and not to let being carried away by doomsday stories..

Good Luck

AMITBE · #2 22nd September 2005, 04:01 PM

Exactly right, sir.
Just what I finished posting at NIFTYFIFTY.

bmcg · #3 22nd September 2005, 04:21 PM

Dear Amitbe,

I have been reading your recommendations time and again on the board and apparently you are a very knowledgable and well informed analyst. Perhaps better than what the Funds and FII's boast of.

I have just only started playing in the market.Could I get your views on Tata Motors and Tata Tea. Motors closed at 499.50 today. Also, I think the market free fall was more to do wth the herd mentality rather than any concrete reason. Would like to have your feedback as to how you foresee the session tomorrow and what scrips in A group are worth the exposure now.

Thanks

Bmcg

game4trade · #4 22nd September 2005, 04:21 PM

Almost everyone seems to be convinced that long term story still holds and market will rebound. If one can time the market this time no need to say he is the winner in this fanatic southward sprint of market.

bmcg · #5 22nd September 2005, 04:42 PM

Dear Amitbe,

I have been reading your recommendations time and again on the board and apparently you are a very knowledgable and well informed analyst. Perhaps better than what the Funds and FII's boast of.

I have just only started playing in the market.Could I get your views on Tata Motors and Tata Tea. Motors closed at 499.50 today. Also, I think the market free fall was more to do wth the herd mentality rather than any concrete reason. Would like to have your feedback as to how you foresee the session tomorrow and what scrips in A group are worth the exposure now.

Thanks

Bmcg

Quote:

Originally Posted by comerciante_inde

More than the negative numbers it is actually the noise which has caused the panic today.

The noise that doomsday for Indian stocks is just around the corner .. with the FII's having turned sellers ... based on one day of FII negative numbers.

What is not understood is

>>> A 200 point fall on Sensex right now is no more than a 100 odd point fall when it was at 4000. Now that the index has more than doubled from say 4000 levels, what is the point in harping on a 200 point fall in the market and fearing the worst.

>>> All said and done India still remains as an attractive investment destination for FII. In this year alone Mutual Funds in Europe raised 250 Billion Euros (308 Billion USD) .. in the US this figure was around 170 Billion USD. Nobody can reason against the fact that a small part of it anyway has to flow into countries like India. Consider the fact that this year YTD in Europe the 'Fidelity India Opportunities Fund' was the second highest grosser in Europe , just a shade behind a fund from the leader DWS.

>>> Sometime back nobody bothered to hear even a word against much-in-demand penny stocks.. small caps.. et al. The logical end to such stories shouldn't change the perception about fundamentals of companies doing well.

>>> Looking into a slightly more detail in Nifty F&O, some very positive signals are obvious there. It is just that we need to sit and think rationally and not to let being carried away by doomsday stories..

Good Luck

Saint · #6 22nd September 2005, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by comerciante_inde

More than the negative numbers it is actually the noise which has caused the panic today.

The noise that doomsday for Indian stocks is just around the corner .. with the FII's having turned sellers ... based on one day of FII negative numbers.

What is not understood is

>>> A 200 point fall on Sensex right now is no more than a 100 odd point fall when it was at 4000. Now that the index has more than doubled from say 4000 levels, what is the point in harping on a 200 point fall in the market and fearing the worst.

>>> All said and done India still remains as an attractive investment destination for FII. In this year alone Mutual Funds in Europe raised 250 Billion Euros (308 Billion USD) .. in the US this figure was around 170 Billion USD. Nobody can reason against the fact that a small part of it anyway has to flow into countries like India. Consider the fact that this year YTD in Europe the 'Fidelity India Opportunities Fund' was the second highest grosser in Europe , just a shade behind a fund from the leader DWS.

>>> Sometime back nobody bothered to hear even a word against much-in-demand penny stocks.. small caps.. et al. The logical end to such stories shouldn't change the perception about fundamentals of companies doing well.

>>> Looking into a slightly more detail in Nifty F&O, some very positive signals are obvious there. It is just that we need to sit and think rationally and not to let being carried away by doomsday stories..

Good Luck

Nice write......keep em coming.Always great to have someone throw a broader perspective....

Saint

comerciante_inde · #7 22nd September 2005, 11:46 PM

As the age old saw goes 'The Golden Rule is that people with the Gold make all the rules', one really has to very nimble and very strong in convictions when trading in Indian equities - both at the same time.

It is sometimes shocking to see the lack of breadth in Indian market. Although NSE ranks third worldwide in terms of no. of trades executed, in terms of sheer size it is nowhere in the league.

FII numbers for a day or two play such a havoc and coupled with raids over a couple of places it is made into a virtual doomsday (FII figures for 21st have been positive).

Some news meanwhile from the corridors of power.

#########################

.............Around 40 to 50 penny stocks have been put under SEBI watch...

.............SEBI Chairman M Damodaran told CNBC-TV18 in New York that there is no evidence of any wrong doing in the markets. He said the current system is strong enough to protect investors.

............Meanwhile, Finance Minister P Chidambaram, who is also in the United States, said that retail investors must go by stock basics, not rumours and tips. He said the economy is doing well, and that quarterly results reflect healthy growth rate.

#########################

jaideep · #8 23rd September 2005, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by comerciante_inde

More than the negative numbers it is actually the noise which has caused the panic today..................
and not to let being carried away by doomsday stories....
Good Luck

Exactly! my dear comerciante_inde. Very nice perspective on the current state of the markets.

AND, I like your handle "comerciante_inde". Sounds like General Santa Fe's (of THE ALAMO fame) Spanish terminology to describe the commercialisation of the Mexican war of independence.

Only joking my friend, nothing offensive meant. Am sure you'll understand.

AMITBE · #9 23rd September 2005, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaideep

Exactly! my dear comerciante_inde. Very nice perspective on the current state of the markets.

AND, I like your handle "comerciante_inde". Sounds like General Santa Fe's (of THE ALAMO fame) Spanish terminology to describe the commercialisation of the Mexican war of independence.

Only joking my friend, nothing offensive meant. Am sure you'll understand.

Ahhh...now I remember, Jaideep!!
REMEMBER THE ALAMO!!

jaideep · #10 23rd September 2005, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

Ahhh...now I remember, Jaideep!!
REMEMBER THE ALAMO!!

Yes Amit, "Remember the Alamo". For all their guts & glory stand Davy Crocket, Jim Bowie et al got cut down by Santa Fe, albeit with their guns blazing. Maybe there's a lesson in this for all of us as to how to cope with our current market scenario. Just maybe.

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