NIFTY FIFTY

darsh_goswami · #**521** 7th November 2005, 09:27 AM

HI FRIENDS ,..
As far as it concerns to me ,.. Nifty needs a close above 2427 to take another rally this week but take 2411 as an important support,.. if breaks 2411 it seems to get down til 2390 ,.. may be one can think to buy it with the support levels .
Regards
Darsh

AMITBE · #**522** 7th November 2005, 09:51 AM

November has brought in a degree of optimism and cheer after the acute pain of October. Three days of up moves and now yet again the Nifty is at a crucial juncture to find direction.
As written a couple of days ago, the hundred odd points band at 2306-2406 has been a twilight zone, a troubled threshold of sorts for the Nifty, from July to September. The qualitative difference now is that during that period the bull run had the ready support of strong institutional buying. As always, even during that entire period there was a loud clamor for a correction which, thanks to sustained buying, never really materialised. But yes, there was much faltering nevertheless. And it was only after 2430-2450 were tested and sustained that the onwards march came.
Now in the present, back into the same zone after hitting all time highs, the struggle continues. But the vital buying support, the strong institutional liquidity inflows are being elusive, and the contrary direction of money-flow is causing most of the pain. Unless there is a reversal in this flow, we can expect increased supply at every high.
From the recent moves the one main positive aspect is the support at 2300 levels with 2280, the other strong support remaining untested. The acutely oversold conditions of a few weeks together with the resilience at 2300s had given a bottom base for the Nifty to rebuild upon which appears to be underway.
The confirmation of this, as in the recent past, will come with 2430-2450 being sustained. If so, then the next area to expect would be another hundred points to the up.
However, only time will tell, if and when this happens, whether this would be a short to mid term corrective rally to the October crash, or the resumption of the long term up rally.
For today the crucial level is 2403, the hinge support for the day. Below this the sentiment would sour again with 2380 exposed.
To the up, 24436-2440 is the important mark to rise above and sustain.

joy_mitali · #**523** 7th November 2005, 11:46 AM

Hi Amitbe,
A good analysis----But why not be a bit more optimist-----I think the present rally can be to 2475----where if it sustains-----can then rally to 2525+--
One more observation----I think --it will be better to study the entire mth---in 2 periods---upto 15th--and from 15th to 30th---
Why not analise---the entire NIFTY data---for the past quarter in these 2 periods----It will be a previledge to go through ur analysis in this regard---
Regards,
joy_mitali

AMITBE · #**524** 7th November 2005, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_mitali

Hi Amitbe,
A good analysis----But why not be a bit more optimist-----I think the present rally can be to 2475----where if it sustains-----can then rally to 2525+--
One more observation----I think --it will be better to study the entire mth---in 2 periods---upto 15th--and from 15th to 30th---
Why not analise---the entire NIFTY data---for the past quarter in these 2 periods----It will be a previledge to go through ur analysis in this regard---
Regards,
joy_mitali

Hi Joy! What a rare pleasure to have you posting here. Welcome my friend.
Yes I'll certainly get into your suggestion tonight and see what comes up.
On the other point I too had written this morning, if 2450 is sustained, then a hundred points up, meaning 2550 could be a reasonable mark to look to.
2450 is important for the next few sessions, as above this 2470-2480 would be quite achievable, and then the fight for 2525-2550. Once here, we would need to await clarity whether it is a corrective rally to the up or the resumption of the major trend. If a corrective upmove, then we should see a downtrend again, though how deep is not certain.
Not optimist or otherwise, Joy...just following the charts around in context to the current wider circumstances.
Thanks.

joy_mitali · #**525** 7th November 2005, 03:59 PM

HOooooooooooo!!!! WHAT A DAY!!!!---2461.6--in NIFTY---TOMORROW--2500--

--or 2450--

---Just for fun!!
Hope everyone had a great day!!!!
Regards,
joy_mitali

darsh_goswami · #**526** 8th November 2005, 09:38 AM

Hey again ,... to Amit
Yesterday i said 2427 is an important level above that it could fire like a rocket ,.. 2411 was the suggested support level ... the low for yesterday was 2411.60,.. the first high what market made was 2427.75 ,.. a quick bounce back from the level 2411.6 ,... I guess it worked right way ,..
For today all i can say is 2444 is trend decider ,.. above that Nifty is in the charm ,.. if breaks 2444 then we can see a deeper fall intraday ,..
Thats all ,..Trend is up ,.. so enjoy ,.. keep sl of 2444 for ur nifty buys ,...
Have fun,..
Regards,
Darsh

AMITBE · #**527** 8th November 2005, 09:52 AM

Not a lot to say in way of observations of the wider influences for now, except to note that the Rupee weakening further is a prime concern.
The other concern being the thin volume on which the current pullback is shaping up. But then this has been the pattern of things lately, and the possibility that a lot of players scared and hurt badly in the recent crash have not moved in as yet is quite probable.
If there was heavy short covering in the last four session, it's also probable that the shorters would stay out of the shorting game, and turn around and go with the reverse trend at least in the short term. This would aid the current pullback rally. With raising confidence levels, if more players should come in at this point, it would begin to look better and better.
It's important to remember that just as there is panic selling, there is panic buying too. People hate to be left out of any apparent good action, even if it were good in their interest. That's just human nature.
All of the above is trying to locate a good reason for an onwards move!

The levels: The Nifty has gone and rested just below an area that is likely to test it quite severely going by the past data.
2476-2484-2492 may give some difficulty, and past 2500 the path may be easier. 2476 is also the 50 day Moving Average mark, significantly.
For today, 2446 is a crucial support to hold above with 2425 zone being another support level.

AMITBE · #**528** 8th November 2005, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joy_mitali

Hi Amitbe,
A good analysis----But why not be a bit more optimist-----I think the present rally can be to 2475----where if it sustains-----can then rally to 2525+--
One more observation----I think --it will be better to study the entire mth---in 2 periods---upto 15th--and from 15th to 30th---
Why not analise---the entire NIFTY data---for the past quarter in these 2 periods----It will be a previledge to go through ur analysis in this regard---
Regards,
joy_mitali

Hi Joy..haven't had the time to really look in with detail, and would love to hear from you the reason for your observation above. Normally it's usual to expect increased volatility towards the month end with F&O expiry. Do let me know why the thought came to you.
Thanks.

koolprakash · #**529** 8th November 2005, 01:12 PM

Hi Amit/ Senior members,

Is the current rally (yesterday and today) just a technical pull-back or should we expect more correction?

Why I ask this is the volumes, turnovers do not look all that great as it usually happens when our market is bullish.

Thanks,
Prakash

AMITBE · #**530** 8th November 2005, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolprakash

Hi Amit/ Senior members,

Is the current rally (yesterday and today) just a technical pull-back or should we expect more correction?

Why I ask this is the volumes, turnovers do not look all that great as it usually happens when our market is bullish.

Thanks,
Prakash

Hi Prakash...would like to see for another couple of sessions. We are into the fourth day of this pullback now and with this the chances of selling soon do increase. Also, after the recent correction there has been no real consolidation at lower levels in time which would have made a stronger base.
Thin volume relatively has been the norm for some time and it would get better if this pullback matures into a resumption of the longer rally.
I would go with a correction to this pullback at this point. It would be interesting to observe just how panicked the market gets then.
2512 is a strong resistance area too.

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