NIFTY FIFTY

srisara · #41 9th August 2005, 04:16 PM

AMIT,

do u mean to say, NIFTY and Sensex may see higher levels from now? please educate me on this.. its is little confusing...

Satya

AMITBE · #42 10th August 2005, 09:30 AM

For Aug. 20.

When I wrote the worst may be behind us for NIFTY, I did not quite mean it is going to start running up from here. The fact is that 2303 did not get broken and there is buying coming in on dips. The 2300 mark has become a bit of a crisis point for now. The bulls are doing everything to keep the NIFTY above that. Things could well turn grim if 2303 is broken.
Another factor is, the global markets have been ruling weak the last two days and the price of crude hitting all time highs. Despite this NIFTY traded in the plus a good part of the day. The fall on Monday left a lot of players stunned and they did not get in on dips which led to a further fall. This did not happen on Tuesday.
Yes, there are no visible triggers left for now, but the corporate results have been great and the mood is on the up as is the liquidity coming in from the FIIs which stand to lose a lot should 2300 go. It seems yesterday FIIs were the main buyers, the reason the markets held in the green territory till later in the day. It’s the Indian funds which had been selling Index Futures bring pressure. So the struggle will remain intense till clarity emerges.

There is more gap to be covered yet, and on Wednesday 2303 may again be tested for another bounce back. If it comes up to 2340, it would be a building block for the ongoing rally.
A safe zone would be 2320-2335 before an up-side is attempted.
Below 2303, it is anyone’s guess. 2275-2280 should stand to the test.

AMITBE · #43 10th August 2005, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

If it comes up to 2340, it would be a building block for the ongoing rally.

A safe zone would be 2320-2335 before an up-side is attempted.

Looking at the intraday movement of NIFTY, 2322 was the lowest point where it opened, and rapidly climbed to 2338 early in the morning. Except for a dip to 2328 soon after, it remained in a tight range around the 2332-2340 between 11 to 2. The surge to the higher levels came after that.

2335 should be remembered for the future. Thrice today NIFTY bounced off this point, each time scoring higher.

AMITBE · #44 11th August 2005, 09:32 AM

For Aug. 11
Remember the very special mark for the NIFTY on the last three sessions of the last week?
Yes, the tempting, forbidden fruit at 2377 is back again!
It has become an enchanted zone where the markets dread to tread.
This is a critical level for today, and if it can be cleared, the sentiment should get a boost to carry the market even higher to close in on 2400.
If not, we are back to the dark lurking shadows of a fall again.
There is enough bad news in the air with crude again hitting an all time high yesterday, and the US markets ruling weak.
In these conditions, there is every possibility that selling pressure will emerge at higher levels. Then there are those who made a killing in yesterday’s awesome rally, and will want to book profits.
So, expect a choppy and nervous market today.
Hopefully it will not open too high as there will come selling at once. If it opens neutral, there is a possibility of a gradual build up later in the day. The bulls need to extend themselves just a little longer to squeeze the bears.
2335 will be a critical level on the down, as below lies a ten point fall.
A comfort range would be 2350-2360.

srisara · #45 11th August 2005, 11:36 AM

AMIT,

it's a wonderful analysis from you. If possible can you post your analysis during the Trading hours also?

This will help us to go against the Trend and save some money instead of loosing it.

Thanks once again for your great posts.

Satya

AMITBE · #46 11th August 2005, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

Remember the very special mark for the NIFTY on the last three sessions of the last week?
Yes, the tempting, forbidden fruit at 2377 is back again!
It has become an enchanted zone where the markets dread to tread.
This is a critical level for today, and if it can be cleared, the sentiment should get a boost to carry the market even higher to close in on 2400.
If not, we are back to the dark lurking shadows of a fall again.

Yes, it is a worry that the NIFTY yet again has retracted from 2377. It touched 2377.55 briefly, and is down at at 2368.
Any futher down will spook the market and selling will emerge.
Look after your tardes.

AMITBE · #47 11th August 2005, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

For Aug. 11
Remember the very special mark for the NIFTY on the last three sessions of the last week?
Yes, the tempting, forbidden fruit at 2377 is back again!
It has become an enchanted zone where the markets dread to tread.
This is a critical level for today, and if it can be cleared, the sentiment should get a boost to carry the market even higher to close in on 2400.
The bulls need to extend themselves just a little longer to squeeze the bears.

NIFTY making a sharp recovery. If it keeps up, 2385-2390 cannot be ruled out.

AMITBE · #48 11th August 2005, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

NIFTY making a sharp recovery. If it keeps up, 2385-2390 cannot be ruled out.

NIFTY at 2383 after hitting 2387 for now.

The apprehension persists: It rallied sharply with more than an hour to go in the session.
I just HOPE it is not a trap, in case it should retract from here.
The market can be very cunning.

srisara · #49 11th August 2005, 03:58 PM

AMIT,

thanks for u r posts. so, what could be the outlook for tomorrow.

already Oil futures are @65.....and the market seems to happily ignore it.....

something strage today, that it recovered from the lower levels....

Satya

AMITBE · #50 11th August 2005, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMITBE

NIFTY making a sharp recovery. If it keeps up, 2385-2390 cannot be ruled out.

NIFTY at 2383 after hitting 2387 for now.

The apprehension persists: It rallied sharply with more than an hour to go in the session.
I just HOPE it is not a trap, in case it should retract from here.
The market can be very cunning.

Yes, the apprehension was well founded as things could have gone either way.
The high was at 2387.30 and the close 2380.90. Pretty close estimations.
Great day with a great close.
More later.
Thanks.

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