NIFTY FIFTY

Arvind

I feel that it would be better if you post your game theory in a separate thread. No offence meant. This thread is considered like a compass for the nifty. We watch this for all the supports and resistances for nifty and is referenced often during the day....Ofcourse this is my opinion.. Amit.what is yours?

Also when the market was zooming up relentless there was no talk of scheming ploiticians, sleeping governments,blah, blah....When the markets correct all this noise....strange isn't it?

regards

karthik

Hi Karthick,


How are you? Nice to see ur opinion.I always post the nifty levels here and check last one week report.But, here i posted my view on market correction is to just share my opinion to others who view this thread.My thought and aim was coinciding with nifty (Market) views and i never like to diverge or break the concept of this thread.I just post that news for or members to know why and who play behind the NIFTY (market) correction and I hope u understand my view and anyhow hereafter i try to avoid these types of msgs .Okay


Take care and Bye

From,

Arvind K

Hello Arvind, thanks for posting your theories.
All are welcome to post their analysis or commentary on the current or future outlook for the Nifty in this thread, whether in technical terms of fundamental.
However I fully agree with Karthik that you may want to post these theories in a new thread where there may be better visibility and discussion, being as such the subjet matter of a different kind of discussion.
I'll wait for you to post all this in a new thread before I respond for the sake of continuity of your discussion, and also to maintain the continuity of the basic subject matter of this thread.
Kind regards.

Hi Arvind

Thanks for understanding my view. That was not discourage you. You are doing a wonderful job. Your threads on market news and Fundamentally good stocks are very good. keep up the good work.. looking forward to your thread on your game theory.

warm regards

karthik

For the millionth time one can say that the week ahead is most crucial for the market for the short, mid or long term. But that's the nature of the market...ever so dynamic.
Yes, the days ahead are critical.
Today, or at best by tomorrow, the Nifty should speak up for the rally late Friday. Yes, the relief rally, the technical bounce, the short covering etc etc were involved. But where to from here?
The nervousness has persisted from well before the time the Nifty climaxed into the 2600s. The reason, poor volume, largely negative a/d ratio and poor market depth. That picture would still haunt us, as to begin with the high levels were being attained on a wafer thin foundations. The collapse was imminent. Then the international financial forces kicked in the rest is history. Do pardon the cliche.
Yes, again, so where to from here.
The FIIs have to come back into the picture as buyers. The Rupee has to gain strength. The positive results factor has to kick in. The Nifty has to stablise above certain key levels. This just about points out the critical ingrediants for a sustainable recovery.

Going on to the important levels, 2455 has troubled in the past, then 2462, 2472 and 2490. This is not a tall order if the technical bounce is to play out fully. Past this 2550 levels will hold the key. If these are attained and sustained, we may be looking at longer recovery.
For today the supports are at 2425 to up at the Friday closing. A fall below will negate the bounce prematurely.
The high levels are mentioned above.

The moves today are certainly not along expected lines.
For the Friday bounce to mature, we at least need to return in the 2443 region, or else it may well stand negated.
For now the supports are, again as last week, at 2417-2414-2412-2406-2403.
Further below, 2396 was strong. And deeper still are 2392-2386-2377-2368-2359.
Pretty gloomy, eh..

Unlike on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday last week where the Nifty pulled back smartly from deep low levels before close, yesterday it struggled to do so. If the same kind of move had materialised yesterday, we should have climbed back into the 2400s last night. The lack of resilience is being attributed mainly to caution before the RBI Credit Policy going to be announced today.
Ok then, one more day for the Nifty to prove or disprove the late day rally on Friday. The October expiry coming up Thursday should add spark to an improvement in sentiment, should that happen.
If not, then the Friday rally would go down as a treacherous Bull-Trap.

The downwards probe to seek the bottom has to stop somewhere soon if consolidation has to happen in time, from here on. To drop further to do this, is only going to increase the shrill cacophony emnating from the influential quarters of the media with regard to a deeper correction...a drop to 2200s, 50% fibonacci retracement and what have you. The fact remains that these chaps are influential and help colour the over-all sentiment.

The positives yesterday despite the drop were the positive breadth, the holding out of midcaps for most of the session, and the participation of the smallcaps. A possible early hint at a recovery? One certainly hopes so, even in the face of the uncertain and well known volatile nature of the small and midcaps. This segment does attract a large chunk of money.

It was seen last week that there is good support for the Nifty in the 2350 region. There is a possibility of these levels being tested again. Again then, at least a short rally cannot be ruled out again. If so, this time it may mature and take us into the 2500s in the short term. A Bear-Trap here?
All this is just talk finally, and let us wait and watch.

The levels, it's important to cross 2406 and 2415 to begin with. Past 2426 would add to the sentiment, and 2443, Friday close, would be outstanding under the circustances.
Down below, as mentioned before, supports are at 2392-2386-2377-2368-2359.

The move today is good so far and 2436 has been difficult in the past. Then 2443 and 2456. 2460 was the high yesterday, and if we get that far, 2476 would be within range. Perhaps thinking way ahead, but the levels are these.
The midcap space is heavy as lead today...so far.

Dear Frinds,

Nifty Level for tom'row from my TA

R2 2480
R1 2445
PP 2418.8
S1 2393
S2 2366
If it breaks 2366 and target will be 2324.My expectation is that market will hit 2480 during it's upward movement.

Seniors post ur views on this

From,

Arvind K

The important aspect emerging over the last few sessions is that the Nifty is attempting to find a bottom base. The reluctance to sell below 2350-2360 is suggesting this, as is the buying at these levels. The overall positive result factor is certainly showing here, besides the technical fibonacci retracement etc. So far so good, and really, one can but only go one day at a time.
To the up, the ghosts of the carnage last week seem to be haunting the market at higher levels: Strong supply is coming in above 2440.
Another positive factor is the wider market breadth over the last few days which has been rather good under the circustances. This may also be seen as sign of bottoming out.
What we really need now is stablity for things to begin to shape up.
I had in an earlier post written of stablity and volatility. Volatility is just another face of price action, and the lack of stablity denotes fear and panic.
There has been a marked lack of stablity over the last two or three sessions. Loss and gain of 50 points intraday and day-on-day does appear more like fear and shakiness.
If all the factors discussed above are in place, stablity is now vital.
With increased stablity, on the face of it then, a bounce should be a logical conclusion.
This is subject to 2350 off levels holding out.
Perhaps a better route to a bounce would be for this level to be tested another couple of times without breaking for a stronger bottom base?
Again this is just talk and the market always does the real walk.

The levels, it is important to stay above 2418, the closing yesterday. The same levels will again test the Nifty: 2426-2436-2444 for starters. A break through would come above 2455-2460.
To the down, the same again: 2396-2388 and so on.