NIFTY FIFTY

This is for BARON only (collected somewhere from internet)...

Even as the rush of foreign funds into stock markets continues unabated, the strong collection in domestic mutual funds will drive the market forward.

So far this year, mutual funds have gathered Rs 19,176 crore of assets, while their purchases on the bourses have been flat at Rs 1,520 crore. This month so far, mutual funds have invested about Rs 2,892 crore, reversing the last three months’ trend of negative flows.

Substantial dividend pay-outs and redemption pressure resulting from investors switching from existing schemes to new fund offers have conspired to keep fund-buying in check. But as fund flows, net of churning, are robust, mutual funds may have the potential to make huge purchases.

Usually, it take takes about three to four months for a fund of around Rs 2,000 crore to get invested in the market. Funds under Rs 1,000 crore take about two months to fully invest.

Leading fund managers said their new offerings that had collected money in the past couple of months had invested less than a third of their net assets so far, which meant big buying was yet to come in.

“Several fund managers, though sitting on a huge pile of cash, have been reluctant to invest aggressively, anticipating a market correction. But as the market keeps defying gravity, fund managers will have to catch up sooner than later,” a fund manager with a leading fund house said.

Apart from the existing cash pile, four new fund offerings — ABN Amro Future Leaders Fund, Sundaram Rural India Fund, Franklin India Equity Income Fund and Optimix Income Growth Fund — are currently open for subscription.

Of this, Franklin India Equity Growth Fund, being a blended Indian-cum-overseas fund, seeks to invest about 50 per cent of the assets in Indian equities. Optimix will allocate its fund collection in other mutual funds, which will then invest this money in the market.

The scorching pace at which the market is rising and with sustained marketing efforts by funds, more and more investors are turning to mutual funds.

“There has been a shift in the mindset of retail investors. Earlier, the retail investors were not convinced about mutual fund returns. But as net asset value of funds is rising, driven by buoyant markets, investors are now realising that mutual funds can deliver better returns,” pointed out Sameer Kamdar, Mata Securities.

The collection from new funds this year has crossed over 60 per cent of last year’s collection.

More investors are now investing through the mutual fund route than investing directly. “Mutual fund penetration also seems to be increasing across the country,” said J Rajagopalan, Bluechip, a Mumbai-based fund distribution firm. Reliance Equity fund, which closed for subscription recently, mobilising a record Rs 5,750 crore, had attracted nearly 9 lakh investors.

Similarly, the SBI Bluechip, which collected Rs 2,850 crore last month, had received about 7 lakh applications. “Earlier, mutual funds were focusing only on corporate clients but now they are shifting focus towards purely retail investors,” Kamdar said.

All this indicates that the mutual fund party may continue, and that means some cushion for the stock market in the event of foreign investors turning their back on it.



Sorry for posting in this thread but I thought this thread is the most popular one...

Thankyou

Subrata Bera.

Subrata, thanks for posting.
All this material you've gathered from the net was alluded to in yesterday's morning post. I didn't of course have all the details provided by you.
It's all so obvious.

So there’s money in the system, and more money’s waiting.
But at the current levels, who wouldn’t want to seek a better entry, and those entered already, wouldn’t they want to book some out to re-enter lower.
If the big money can push the markets up, it can, but not so equallyin the current scenario, prune the market down.
For those seeking lower entry, there may possibly be a limited window of opportunity coming on.
The monthly f&o closing tomorrow may possibly help. Important results will have begun to be announced by the end of the next month expiry, so in the near term this may be a decent opportunity coming on to effect a pullback of sorts, even if a brief one.
There are a few hedge funds skulking about, including the new Reliance Equity Fund, who may just cash in a bit.
The interest rate hike in the US and the surge in crude price may have a say too.
On the other hand, the Asian markets seem to be hanging in rather well as of now.
Expect much volatility.


The usual modus operandi of scaling back, and then holding important levels is likely to be seen again.
Looking ahead, in case a pullback is seen, the immediate base support area is 3222-3237.
3267-3282 is further up, but that’s hardly a pullback.
Interesting few sessions are waiting ahead.

For now the support line is 3320-3317-3314-3311-3308-3305-3302.
Then 3299-3296-3292-3288.
3280-3276-3272 is looking like a base.

To the up, 3328-3332-3334-3337-3339-3342-3345-3348.

If 3345 is attempted again and taken out, and 3348/49, then 3352-3355-3358-3361 would be the line.
However, as seen yesterday a similar second coming to the high levels turned out to be a bull trap where there was a sharp drop.

3345 was then tested twice in quick succession, and the way the Nifty fell off again today seemed like a repeat of yesterday.
Rising from 3334 a little later, this time once 3345 and 3348 got taken out, note the single sharp move up to cover 3352-3355-3356-3358.
Finally went as high as 3359.80, a little short of 3361.
Interesting chart to see.

Attached Images

Nifty March29.jpg (60.9 KB, 18 views)

A humble limerick in honour of the NIFTY's Master Commentator:

Just so that you know,
Perhaps it'does'nt show,
But Amit my dear friend,
My admiration'll never end,
It can do nothing but grow.

Dear Amit,
I request you to comment on the following days' statistics.
6-3-06 volume: 2959856 index= 3190.40; 7-3-06 volume: 3280807 index= 3182.This is day 1 where on a high volume,the index came down
8-3-06 volume 3388863 index=3116.70.This again is day2 with high volume but declining index.
13-3-06 volume 2816271 index=3202.65;14-3-06 volume 2945491 index=3195.35.This is day 3
20-3-06 volume 2659197 index: 3265.65; 21-3-06 volume 3157241 index= index=3262.30 This is day 4.
4 distribution days like this in a 4 week period is supposed to fore warn a major correction(as per William o'neil)
What is your input on this?
With best Regards
Kumar

hi amit....-ve roc diversion for 2nd day in nifty .weakness may be seen during the day....it will be more pronounced in overbought counters pl. give ur comments....if possible give names of such scrips

Hi Kumar and Bharat, not looked into both the issues yet, and will try and do so later in the day. Running out of time now.

From every indicator and every logic, a pruning down appears more and more likely in the near term, even today.
This is despite the heady Sensex versus the Dow euphoria and the strong close yesterday, and not only because it’s the last day of the contracts expiry indicating volatility.

That’s pretty much it, and the following is from yesterday morning post, to bring forward some details from there:
Yes, some pruning down is very like on, quite soon. The base support levels mentioned in case of a pullback may be revised as and when it come up.

The line to the up is 3358-3361-3364-3367-3370-3373.
Above this congestion is seen, and how far the likely initial burst will wade into this territory is to be seen. At this point the levels to seek above are 3377-3381-3385-3389 for now.

For supports, it’s important to hold above the lower levels of the line at 3352-3348-3344-3336-3330.
3312-3315-3318 are base levels.

The intial burst was expected, and it took the Nifty to 3390.10, sneaking past the anticipated top level at 3389.
Looking ahead, should there be another attempt mounted, past 3389/90 is 3393-3396-3399-3402.