SEL Manufacturing - Surprise Fall!

- Price was forming a rounding Top with negative MACD and RSI divergence!
- This sudden fall is due to break of pattern.
- Looks like Smart Money became suspect that too many people know that they are exiting, so somebody pulled the plug!

Current view
- Price has currently taken support at earlier support and earlier resistances marked by Pink circles!
- Market has very strong memory at this range of 240-250 and we need to see if this breaks.

Feedback intended

good analysis
congo on that front
but some operators behind this fall.
they are giving buy call via sms thriugh various sites during this fall.
not sure about this but i read somewhere tht there was end of lock in period for HNIs.
so to dump their stocks the rally was created.

NO SURPRISE AT ALL.... A JOB VERY WELL EXECUTED BY SMART MONEY...

Any calls on SEL Manufacturing ?

The promoters look a bit non investor friendly .

SELMCL is a good stock for the investor at current level.....
It may bounce back if it's all time low 39 is breached.

I am trapped in SELMCL with 3000 shares invested @Rs.55 average.The price has been falling everyday since 28th June 2010,when it was Rs.70,reaching a low of Rs.41.70 on 9th August 2010.However it has turned green since the last two days.Both in June and July the havy trading volumes were contributed majorly by bulk deals.The price has been falling even though during the trading hours the total number of shares for buy used to be always nearly twice or more than the number of shares offered for sell,the reason for which i coundnt comprehend.The trading volume has now come down after the share has started moving up.

If one were to look at its results the company seems to be growing and has embarked on substantial expansion of its business.The equity base has also been expanding which has pulled down the EPS.Elsewhere i have read tha its top and bottom line would inrease to Rs.1000 crores plus and Rs.100 crores respectively during 2010-11.I am pasting below the results abstract from BSE site:


(in Cr.) 10-Jun 10-Mar FY09-10
Revenue 356.86 272.77 942.22
Net Profit 23.14 7.8 66.89
EPS 4.08 8.02 32.08
Cash EPS 5.47 6.02 32.39
OPM % 16.17 18.07 19.19
NPM % 6.48 2.86 7.1


The company had its AGM on 7th Aug 2010 when proposal for preferential allotment of 2.5 crore shares to promoters which will inrease their stake from 19.45% at present to 43.04% has been approved besides issue of GDRs/FCCBs for an aggregate amount not exceeding US$200million.The pricing of prferential issue as per SEBI guidelines would be more than Rs.60 per share given the higher share prices of the share during the 6 month peroid preceeding the relevant date which is 8th july 2010.

In the above senario of the company can one expect the price of SELMCL to bounce once the price of preferential issue to promoters is announced.I request members to offer their view whether SELMCL is a hold or sell

Request response for my post above as SELMCL shows no signs of up move and i am under heavy loss

dear friend,

sorry for your loss.

I feel the entry at the level of 55 was not wise as the stock was already in downtrend by then.

However now when the stock has fallen so much, further fall might not happen , as most of the investors would be out of it.

I suggest put a stop loss of 41.75 on your position and hope for the script to go higher from yesterday's close of 43. Stock will enter in bullish trend if it can cross 56 levels. Some accumulation signals are evident in last 12 session. Hopefully script will go higher.

What other member's feel, please suggest as help is required to our dear friend.

All the best.

Hello friend , The company looks poised for growth and I feel the price can to 70--80 now again easily in a small horizon ! BV is approx 70
and the equity base expansion has been a worry - good side is that the share got battered so much that investors can easily buy without much downside .

Dala Street Journal has put a hold for this now and my opinion is to buy more at this level and average ur CMP .

I am holding 2400 at 52 CMP , ofcourse I average to make it 52 from 55 levels planning to buy more . Not decided though as I dont have fund

Thanks for your response friends nkhotchandani and nishantvarma. it is my hunch that the fall in price could be deleberate to facilitate accumulation by those having inside information. I will hold and watch the trading activity next week hoping that the preferential issue to promoters which can trigger the upmove will come sooner.