Elliott's wave - Current Market Trend Analysis

I am just cut&paste this article from other forum.............

Dear all,

We are witnessing the beginning of a final decline. Yes we are on the darkest of the dark wave called The C wave.

Those who are new to these updates should read following threads as previous useful presentations. This is a fourth one in the series.

3 Midway on Correction-BSE sensex Projections-10-05-08

2 BSE sensex projections on 22-03-08


1 BSE Sensex Projections (Forecast or attempted forecast) in coming days with Elliott's wave principle-Please read carefully and share your views


0 Elliott's wave principle


Those who have been following thes eprojections since 30th January 2008,


*Previous Updates and useful Notes with Observations (To recap)*


---------------------------------------------------------------------------*-------------------------
Corrective waves are as follows.


· Wave A (Has five sub waves and we have seen them all above, they were sub
wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
· Wave B (Has three sub waves namely wave A, B and C)
· Wave C (Has five sub waves –Sub wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)


---------------------------------------------------------------------------*------------------------------


Wave count/Where we are?


---------------------------------------------------------------------------*----------------------------------


Wave counts are as follows.


§ Wave A Sub wave 1(21200 to 15332)


§ Wave A Sub wave 2 (15532 to 18895)**


§ Wave A Sub wave 3 (18895 to 16457)


§ Wave A Sub wave 4 (16457 to 18314)


§ Wave A Sub wave 5 (18314 to 14677)


Wave B and all sub waves are as follows.


· Wave B-Sub wave A - 14677 to 17735


· Wave B Sub wave B – 17735 to 16546


· Wave B Sub wave C – 16546 to 17496


Wave C and all sub waves are as follows.


· Wave C1- 17496 to 16196.


Internal of Wave C1 (Five Sub Sub waves as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)


· Wave C1-Sub wave 1 - 17496 to 16196


· Wave C1-Sub wave 2 – 16196 to 16415 and on going…


---------------------------------------------------------------------------*------------------------------------------------


The very Latest Updates


31-05-2008


Wave C has five sub waves


Sub wave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. 1, 3 and 5 goes down and 2 and 4 goes up. 1, 3, 5
are used to buy on LT and 2 and 4 are used to sell and generate cash.


We are on C1. We may see a sharper down move soon. This can take us towards
14700. I expect following as an end point for C1 before we see a good up
move which would be a last decent up move. (As a part of C2 as C4 won't be
as good as C2)


1 15845


2 15700


3 15300


4 14700


5 14500


As a result of C1 we may see one of the above levels. C1 is not a great
level to buy everything but scripts that have gone down significantly lower
can be bought for LT. I expect it to touch 15700. If it goes below 15300
then we my see a new bottom. Remember one of the correction points
forecasted on 30th January is 14100, which is 38.2% correction of the whole
cycle. We would certainly see that level even if we may not touch to that
level as C1. Traditionally C3 and C5 are the finest opportunites to invest
for LT. Correction would end at C5 and a new Bull Run shall begin.


My first Bull Run estimate within a year or two is 24700 minimum but
definitive figures would be given once we touch to bottom.


As a part of C1-4 we may see 16600, 17000 (Nifty 5050) One may come out at
that stage to generate cash.


As a part of C2 we may see 16200, 16570, and 16600, 16900, 17200, 17500 or
so. We shall certainly see 17000+ one more time before a final decline, as
per my projections.


The above are only estimated projections as we haven't seen the end point of
C1 yet.


*What to do/What is my strategy?*


*
---------------------------------------------------------------------------*-------------------------------
*


C1 offers some buying opportunities. I would be a buyer at these low levels.
I would buy SIP style. However I would certainly keep some cash in hand to
shop at lower levels later.


Elliott's analysis doesn't offer day to day movement of index. I think it is
actually an advantage as some argue that is not.


A down move can take up to a month or two. One must keep these remarks in
mind.


The above advise must be strictly followed with discipline other wise there
are great chances of getting stuck at higher levels. 16415 is still not a
good enough level to buy and this is a clear message from me.


I guess because the range is getting narrower and narrower, trading
opportunites are gone. Up moves can be used to sell and generate cash, as
simple as that.


When we may move up, it provides another and probably final decent
opportunity to sell. One mustn't miss that. This will be clearly seen as a
part of C2. As I said, C4 wouldn't be as great as C2 and C5 would be much
deeper than C1, for sure.


Personally, I would buy and wait for further down falls to invest for a long
time. Investment at or around 14100/14700 would double in 2 years time, as
per my projections.


Technical analysis is not enough to project market movements correctly all
the time hence I also analyse economy. These discussions are within another
thread called Classic battle/Battle Home front. Needless to say that Indian
economy is passing through a rough patch. That coincides perfectly with the
final decline in form of the darkest of all, called C wave.


Any questions, please ask. Healthy criticism is more than welcome.


I wish you all good luck from the bottom of my heart.


Best Regards


Spandan Joshi

Could you post the link to the site please.

Regards,
Kalyan.

article is really nice. i know v little about technical analysis, but would like to know more about elliott`s wave theory. please explain more on c1 c2 c4 and c5 as per sensexs numbers

Hi
Maybe the calculations and wave counts you have posted might be correct...but I strongly feel that their arent right...Surely this is just my view, but as we all knw how subjective elliot waves can be...so Im posting my wave counts for the above, according to which we might yet be in wave be, and there might be a possible up move to 5100/5200 before the wave C begins...then again, I can be wrong...

Regards
Jai Shewaramani

PS..I couldnt post my chart again, as traderji site doesnt allow the same chart to be posted in 2 threads at the same time..thus plz check this link for the elliot wave count for nifty

http://www.traderji.com/equities/222...unt-nifty.html

He is one of kind of person well dealing with E.wave theory.And so for the theory is working fine.The current up move sensex will be the good selling opportunity as per him and also he is strongly suggest 12300 must be tested at least once before we see any proper up move.Take your own call.I am just cut past his message from this Jul 15th.(S.Joshi sorry to post your message without your permission.)

Good Luck to you all

KPR

************************************************** ******
Dear all,

Almost non stop working for 6 hours produced a document that was beyond my
expectation. Please go through this document which is attached with this
mail. I request you all to make a print out and read twice, especially all
numbers and "Where is the bottom" part of it.

Those who are new to these updates should read following threads as previous
useful presentations. This is a fifth one in the series. This may be my last
publication or second last one, at the most.
4 The Beginning of a final decline-BSE sensex projections on 15-07-08

3 Midway on Correction-BSE sensex Projections-10-05-08

2 BSE sensex projections on 22-03-08

1 BSE Sensex Projections (Forecast or attempted forecast) in coming days
with Elliott's wave principle-Please read carefully and share your views

0 Elliott's wave principle

*The very latest Updates on 15-07-2008*

Wave C has five sub waves

Sub wave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. 1, 3 and 5 goes down and 2 and 4 goes up. 1, 3, 5
are used to buy on LT and 2 and 4 are used to sell and generate cash.

We are on C1. It has taken us from 17735 to 12670. It has used its five legs
to achieve it.

The next level is 12344/12316/12280/11900/.

As a result of C1 we may see one of the above levels. C1 is not a great
level to buy everything but scripts that have gone down significantly lower
can be bought for LT after careful research.

My first Bull Run estimate within two to three years is 25700 minimum but
definitive figures would be given once we touch to bottom.

The above are only estimated projections as we haven't seen the end point of
C1 yet.

The alternative interpretation is that we may be on C3 if we don't stop
sliding even below 12300 or so. However this wave doesn't look like C3 as C2
was so small and that usually doesn't happen. C2's length should be 38% of
C1 and hence should see 14700 as a minimum level so this wave could be just
an extended 5th leg of C1-5. We didn't achieve C2's normal length and so It
looks like C1-5 still.

*So where is the Bottom? (This is a must read, please)*

- Corrective cycle may see all levels which are seen already up to wave 4.
- Correction ends just above the level of wave 4. (8799)
- Correction generally occurs minimum of 50%, possibly 61.8%
- Correction occurs in three waves, A, B and C
- C wave's length is more or less same as A wave at least or 1.61.8 time
of A wave.
- Our A wave length was 21200 to 14700, hence of 6500 points and that is
30.66% fall from 21200. There fore our C wave length should be minimum of
6500 points from the highest of B wave, which was 17735 or 1.618 times.
- Therefore approximate bottom on C-5 would be at a minimum of 17735
minus 5437, which is 30.66% correction from 17735 and hence at 12298. This
is a minimum target. A level of 12316 is very well known and seen on several
occasion.

If correction occurs of 1.618% then we may see a level of 49.60% correction,
which is 1.618 times of 30.66% correction we have seen as A wave. A 49.60%
correction from 17735 may take us to a total of 8797 points from 17735,
hence to a level of 8938, which was seen as a part of fourth wave end of
8799.

*Therefore a bottom is some where between 12300 and 9000. This would be a
last band of a fall, probably as a part of C3 and C5 towards the end part of
corrective cycle. A level of 9850 has a very strong support and we may just
end above it.*

* *

*If you divide sensex levels in four 3000 points band I recommend buying in
a last 3000 band. Needless to why I strongly advised to sell at 18000,
17000, 16000 and 15000 as well. We may see still one more time 15000 levels,
if we are lucky. *

* *

*1 21000-18000*

*2 18000-15000*

*3 15000-12000*

*4 12000-9000 (I advised to buy in this band which could be a last band but
we may see levels as low as 8900 or so, beware)*

* *

*What to do/What is my strategy?*

C1 offers some buying opportunities. I would be a buyer at these low levels
below 12316 only in selective scripts and probably only 10% or so with
pauses in between. I would buy SIP style. However I would certainly keep
majority of my cash in hand to shop at lower levels later.

To remain as a spectator during a fall of C1 may not be a bad idea at all.

Elliott's analysis doesn't offer day to day movement of index. I think it is
actually an advantage as some argue that is not.

A down move can take up to a month or two. One must keep these remarks in
mind.

I guess because the range is getting narrower and narrower, trading
opportunites are gone. Up moves can be used to sell and generate cash, as
simple as that.

When we may move up, it provides another and probably final decent
opportunity to sell. One mustn't miss that. This will be clearly seen as a
part of C2. As I said, C4 wouldn't be as great as C2 and C5 would be much
deeper than C1, for sure.

Personally, I would buy and wait for further down falls to invest for a long
time.

Technical analysis is not enough to project market movements correctly all
the time hence I also analyse economy. These discussions are within another
thread called Classic battle/Battle Home front. Needless to say that Indian
economy is passing through a rough patch. That coincides perfectly with the
final decline in form of the darkest of all, called C wave.

Any questions, please ask. Healthy criticism is more than welcome.

I wish you all good luck from the bottom of my heart.

Best Regards

Spandan Joshi

*Previous archived notes (For new comers and those who missed previous
sections)*

Basic Rules

1 Wave 2 always retraces less then of 100% of wave 1

2 Wave 3 is never the shortest wave of waves 1, 3 and 5.

3 Wave 4 does not overlap the price territory of wave 1.

4 Generally in a Bull cycle the corrective C wave ends slightly higher than
Wave 4.

Previous Updates and useful Notes with Observations

* *

Corrective waves are as follows.

- Wave A (Has five sub waves and we have seen them all above, they were
sub wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
- Wave B (Has three sub waves namely wave A, B and C)*•
Wave C (Has five sub waves –Sub wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)*

* * *Previous Forecasts or attempted forecasts (At least we can try….)*

We are on the corrective cycle. This cycle's Bull part started in September
2001. This has lasted for 6 years and 4 months. *This is a correction of a
whole cycle*. That is why we are seeing a massive correction and severe
falls at this movement.

Our BSE sensex ended at 21200 from 2598. So the whole cycle segment length
is from 2598 to 21200.

Lots of people thought this are a same correction as occurred in 2006 and
2007. It is not. I have always maintained my saying and backed up clearly by
showing wave pattern and provide useful guidance.

I have also said to generate cash when we were at the beginning of a
corrective phase. Sensex did reach to highs of 18900 or so. Those who sold
shares and generated cash can use cash to buy now at much lower levels.
Those who have got cash also can use at this time. The investment must be
done carefully and for long term. Benefits will be immense.

*Projections on the base of Elliott's wave principle and Fibonacci's
numbers.*

* *

1 Segment or cycle length = 21200 – 2598 = 18602.

So 0.38 % retracement of 18602 is 7105 points. There fore the index level
may go down as low as 21200 - 7105 = 14095.

*Index may not go down below 14095, if correction stops here.*

* *

*It looks very likely that we will meet a minimum of 14100.*

2 However the other relationships are 50% and 62% Now 50% of the segment
length is 9301 and if we take it out from the top of 21200 then it gives a
figure of 21200 – 9301 = *11899*.

Our economy is slowing down. We have High inflation of 11.89. CRR hiked
twice. Repo rate is hiked as well. Oil is 140+ $.

*Hence 11899 can be a possibility. There is really fair chance of sensex
going down to 12316 first followed by 11900.*

My other calculations suggest that below 11900, some or significant numbers
of FII would start making losses. *There fore 11900 is considered as "The
starting" bottom*.

3 If we calculate 62 % retracement of entire length then it gives us a
figure less than 11899. To be precise the correction is 11533 and if we
subtract from 21200, it gives a figure of *9667.* This looks like a real
possibility.

4 In between Wave A and C, we will see wave B as an up move. Do not fool
yourself at that point thinking that correction is over. This up move may
just come sooner rather than later and may complicate but beware, we will
correct further.

Sensex up moves can take us to 15500/15700/16700 and 16900. From there we
can move up to 17200, 17900 and 18700. I although see a very slim chance of
18700.

The above are Selling Opportunities. One may shuffle the portfolio and
invest in good scripts at a later stage when index goes down below 12316 or
so.

Buying must be gradual and as SIP style.

To recap, 14100 or 11900 or 9700 are the correction cycle end points. (At
the end of C wave) On higher levels, one may sell if gets decent profit.
(Especially those who bought recently at or around 15000) There will be
buying opportunity at a later stage. For buyers keep sensex levels of
14100/13700 & 11900 in mind. For sellers sensex levels of
16900/17200/17900/18300/18700 must be kept in mind. (On B wave)

Time wise we may take up to a year. Although no one can time the market or
find the bottom, I am always keen to try. I expect index to bottom out in
September/October and starts moving up in November.

*Notes On Previous Corrective Cycle (February 14th 2000 to 17th September
2001) (This is a new section and It was really an interesting exercise)*

A peak was seen at 5721 on 14th February 2000 as a fifth wave end.

Corrective cycle took us to 2598 on 17th September, a fall of approximately
55%.

Wave count is as follows.

A1-5141 on 21st March 2000

A3-4657 on 2nd May 2000

A5-4084 on 22nd May 2000

A wave's length = 5721 to 4084 = 1637 points

B-A-4905 on 3rd July 2000

B-B-4186 on 31st July 2000

B-C-4562 on 11th September 2000

Thus length of B wave was 4084 to 4905.

C1-3692

C2-4397

C3-3183

C4-3659

C5-2598 on 17th September. Our Bull Run began.

Thus C wave was of 2307 points, approximately 1.41 times of A wave which was
of a length of 1637 points. (Pretty close to 1.61 times as per Fibonacci
ratio as 2651 points comes at 1.62 times of A wave length as 1637 points)

Best Regards

Spandan Joshi

Thankin u a lot for such analysis but along with than u should also provide some information on ascending triangle and double top,head and shoulder pattern etc.Thanks