Investments in US Stock Market

Hi All,

I think there are enough people on this forum who are investing in markets outside of India, specifically in american markets - NRIs or those who have returned. But discussions on traderji have been limited only to Indian market. Can we share our thoughts and ideas on this thread?

American stock market is staging a good recovery from the low hit during Bear Stearns crisis on Mar 17. S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite are up around 15% since. This week, inflation numbers turned out to be better than expected, but then consumer confidence and oil soured the mood last couple of days. Was a good week nevertheless.

Some of the sectors that I am following are as follows.

Technology - I have stayed out of technology for quite some time, but now am considering moving in. Semiconductors look interesting - INTC is up to $25. Semi-Equipment stocks are also starting to move. AAPL is good, but has recovered from $120 all the way and may hit some rough weather now.

Energy - Gasoline close to $4/gallon probably didn't bother you if you were invested here during last year or so. Other than the big guys, plenty of action in small medium size players in oil and gas exploration- some I am following HES, SWN, XTO, OIH, XLE. Coal is even better. My watchlist has ACI, JRCC, MEE and WLT. Refiners have languished - VLO and HOC were my old time favorites. Although long term picture on Energy is good, there may better buying opportunity later on a pulldown.

Agriculture - This has been the story (other than Energy) during past year. Most of the related stocks didn't suffer during the credit crisis. Inflation in commodities, Ethanol craze, supply-demand imbalance in fertilizers have meant good return in this sector. Watching CF, TNH, AGU, MOS, POT, DBA.

International - A fraction of portfolio should be diversified in Emerging Market ETFs like ADRE, EEB, BIK. The indian market ETN - INP has lost all the premium it had 6 months ago. I would rather invest directly in India.

Hope to hear from others - What sectors do you think will outperform in second half of '08, any good mutual fund/ETF finds? Please share your ideas.

Regards,

-- Milind

I welcome that idea. Do you think investing in ETF EPI(launched by Wisdomtree in Feb 08) is good? Currently it is under its IPO price.
-RaV

RaV,

I wasn't aware of EPI, thanks for mentioning it. It certainly adds another option for investing in India. Good volumes as well, so liquidity shouldn't be a problem either. They hold some 200 stocks with 14% in Reliance, total 40% to basic materials+energy. Since they started recently in Feb, no idea how well they will track Nifty/Sensex though.

-- Milind

technically speaking....the dow is knocking just below its 200 dma.....

Hi,

Its been 10 months since I posted last on this thread! Well, things are starting to look up on US markets. Analysts argue whether this is a bear market rally or if we have a bottom. We will only know for sure after the fact.

I am getting interested in financials - they suffered the most - thanks to their own crime. But last week, they have had great return. Specifically, BAC, MS and the financial ETF - XLF. Few others I am tracking include ORCL, and all time technology favorite AAPL. Strictly on trading basis, with tight stop losses using pivots, so that I can exit in time if the bear market rally ends.

-- Milind

Market is turning south. On hourly, S&P has gone below yesterday's low sufficiently to call 60m trend change.
Out of BAC (was in since $4) and MS longs. Short on OIH and POT

EDIT: Covered half of OIH near lod, rest got stopped out for small profit

I am not going to post to this thread unless I find some new information that may be useful to others.

I am still playing with demo versions - latest one from thinkorswim. This broker has gotten decent reviews, recently was acquired by TDAmeritrade. Cons are - commisions are not cheapest, data can not be integrated in any commonly used tools lime amibroker, their tools don't seem to be too fancy. Demo version has delayed data, I think. But on positive, I made some paper money in couple of days of trial trading YM. Also, they don't charge anything for the data.

Last one I had tried was from Mirus. It worked with NinjaTrader which was quite good.

I have yet to try IB. But their application process seems daunting. Standard real time data is free (requires minimum #30 commisions per month), but L2 data needs to be bought. IB datafeed connects easily with variety of charting tools. I will certainly give them a try before finalizing.

-- Milind

Possible topping pattern? Attached daily charts for Nasdaq100, S&P500, Hang Seng. Nifty also included although the chart looks a bit different.

-- Milind