Caveat emptor - Buyer beware - Fair Value of SENSEX updated!

#1
Tech View - 2008 added at 2008-01-05 08:16:14

Technical View – 2008


Of fat tails and extreme value theories….


CMP BSE 20300


BEST CASE 22800 FAIR VALUE 14864 BEAR CASE 11200


Following the stellar rally of 2007 , the Indian markets have entered bubble zone and the best case scenario is indicative of a 10-12% % upside from current market levels for the year which will see an above fair value level of approx 21622/ 22800 for the BSE At that level consensus earnings will be approximately 27 times anticipated FY 2008/9 EPS of Rs 850 for India Inc. The upside is with the caveat that that the US undergoes a soft landing , the falling dollar receives aggressive Fed stimulus, emerging markets continue to assert themselves and India’s growth and relative valuations remain in good shape.


The bear case indicates a 25 % downside from current levels over the next 12 months with first support at 14,864 and that becomes reality if the US recession is deep, and is combined with significant policy changes at home and a hostile political environment. Extrapolating the fair value estimate of 17 times anticipated FY2008/9 EPS , the fair value of the Sensex works out to approximately 14450 / 14,864 which is also the inflection point from where Elliots 5th wave extension for 2007 began.

Should the US recession deepen significantly and /or a major financial crisis occur in global markets causing deep risk aversion , we see a worse case 45% downside from current levels to 11,022 .


While India Incs fundamentals remain very strong, we believe that external forces will make the extreme value theory continue to create a fat tail zone for equities in 2008.


Caveat emptor - Buyer beware!


PS : This was posted at xxxxxxxxxxxxx.com Every one on the street is now talking of 11,000 . Go through our Tech View for 2008 and we said on Jan 5th, that this market is headed down.

This is not to market any website or forum. Just for the members of Traderji to know Fair Value of Sensex.
 
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#2

PS : This was posted at xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.com Every one on the street is now talking of 11,000 . Go through our Tech View for 2008 and we said on Jan 5th, that this market is headed down.



Good analysis!

BTW, while it mentions all the scenarios, can you please tell us when & why the trade was triggered? I failed to find one mentioned in this article.

Best Regards,
--Ashish
 
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#3
Good analysis!

BTW, while it mentions all the scenarios, can you please tell us when & why the trade was triggered? I failed to find one mentioned in this article.

Best Regards,
--Ashish
Dear Ashish,

You should ask this query to the author who posted this at his website.

I just read this post at their website and wanted to share the information at Traderji.

Regards,
Wellwisher
 
#4
Dear Ashish,

You should ask this query to the author who posted this at his website.

I just read this post at their website and wanted to share the information at Traderji.

Regards,
Wellwisher
Oic!

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I thought you are the author yourself.

Regards,
--Ashish
 
#5
Oic!

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I thought you are the author yourself.

Regards,
--Ashish
Dear Ashish,

No problem.

Aryan from that website feels that 4000-4200 should be the bottom and he has recommended all the members to buy RPL for a price target of 300-600-800 by next 6-18 months.

what is your view my friend about our markets now ? Just for information

Regards,
Wellwisher
 
#6
Dear Ashish,

No problem.

Aryan from that website feels that 4000-4200 should be the bottom and he has recommended all the members to buy RPL for a price target of 300-600-800 by next 6-18 months.

what is your view my friend about our markets now ? Just for information

Regards,
Wellwisher
Oic!

So this is the famed Aryan's Website. He had a story inning on traderji.

So far as market goes, I have no idea of bottoms neither I do have any such long term target on RPL.

Regards,
--Ashish
 
#7
Oic!

So this is the famed Aryan's Website. He had a story inning on traderji.

So far as market goes, I have no idea of bottoms neither I do have any such long term target on RPL.

Regards,
--Ashish
Dear Ashish,

Yes. It was posted at Aryan's website.

Buy RPL now - Reason here at his chat transcript today -

*************************************

tejpreet: Aryan: right time for investments ?

tejpreet: Aryan: 1 - 2 years wali :p

Aryan: tejpreet: i have already said it

Aryan: On jan 22

Aryan: what was Sensex low ?

mitrajdeep: 15332

abhi83535: 15332

abhi83535: i think

Aryan: we are about 600 points down

Aryan: from that level

Aryan: what was RPL

Aryan: low ?

Aryan: on jan 22

sirius: I think 111-112

Veda: 108

Aryan: nah sirius

Aryan: it was ard 100 odd

arya_kamal: 107

Aryan: okies.

chanakya: 116

Aryan: 4 % lower Sensex from Jan 22 lows now. RPL almost 50 % up from Jan 22 lows now...

Aryan: the reason why I am bullish

Aryan: RPL has outperformed Sensex by almost 56 % in 2 months

Aryan: Forget Charts

Aryan: Forget RSI

Aryan: forget Technical indicators

Aryan: in my book..

Aryan: its a simple buy and forget for the next 2 years

Aryan: if you had 100 bucks

Aryan: put in 25 bucks now in RPL

Aryan: and wait for another 10 % correction in it and put in another 25 bucks

Aryan: Target 300 / 600 / 800

Aryan: Time Frame...

Aryan: max 18 months

Interesting.

Regards,
Wellwisher
 

biyasc

Well-Known Member
#8
Tech View - 2008 added at 2008-01-05 08:16:14

Technical View – 2008


Of fat tails and extreme value theories….


CMP BSE 20300


BEST CASE 22800 FAIR VALUE 14864 BEAR CASE 11200


Following the stellar rally of 2007 , the Indian markets have entered bubble zone and the best case scenario is indicative of a 10-12% % upside from current market levels for the year which will see an above fair value level of approx 21622/ 22800 for the BSE At that level consensus earnings will be approximately 27 times anticipated FY 2008/9 EPS of Rs 850 for India Inc. The upside is with the caveat that that the US undergoes a soft landing , the falling dollar receives aggressive Fed stimulus, emerging markets continue to assert themselves and India’s growth and relative valuations remain in good shape.


The bear case indicates a 25 % downside from current levels over the next 12 months with first support at 14,864 and that becomes reality if the US recession is deep, and is combined with significant policy changes at home and a hostile political environment. Extrapolating the fair value estimate of 17 times anticipated FY2008/9 EPS , the fair value of the Sensex works out to approximately 14450 / 14,864 which is also the inflection point from where Elliots 5th wave extension for 2007 began.

Should the US recession deepen significantly and /or a major financial crisis occur in global markets causing deep risk aversion , we see a worse case 45% downside from current levels to 11,022 .


While India Incs fundamentals remain very strong, we believe that external forces will make the extreme value theory continue to create a fat tail zone for equities in 2008.


Caveat emptor - Buyer beware!


PS : This was posted at xxxxxxxxxxxxx.com Every one on the street is now talking of 11,000 . Go through our Tech View for 2008 and we said on Jan 5th, that this market is headed down.

This is not to market any website or forum. Just for the members of Traderji to know Fair Value of Sensex.
this is an another bakwas website. trying to find clients from every corner of the street.
 

biyasc

Well-Known Member
#10
Oic!

So this is the famed Aryan's Website. He had a story inning on traderji.

So far as market goes, I have no idea of bottoms neither I do have any such long term target on RPL.

Regards,
--Ashish
who is this aryan? owner of the website?