Another 25-30 % correction expected ?

With the current market trend, I am guessing another 25% correction in the next few months, though the low levels may not hold for very long time ...

Today market is at 14809 , so -25% , we are looking at around 11,000 + , and I dont see good support levels around that level, so it is quite possible that sensex might go below 10,000 ......

I dont see a bull market in near sight for following reasons :

1) It is very unlikely the global financial situation will turn around in next 8-12 months tough some band aids might be applied , best case it would take atleast 12-18 months to turn around.

2) Already EPS have started comming down for blue chips

3) We are heading towards elections next year .... as we approach nearer the markets are going to get weaker .... (atleast that has been indian market trend and definetely not strong).

4) Layoffs / salary cutts starting in indian software companies are going to have ripple effect on housing and retail sector.

I would hold off any buys at the moment and hold cash, probably dump stocks now and buy at the dips.

too much unlikeliness

a good downgrade of EPS considering a higher base

elections next year and not this year

elections would be because nuclear deal goes thr'

salary cuts will have impact on housng! forget the additional homes reqd!!

interest rates will not have any impact on housing !!

now thats why u wud see sensex @11000 !!!!

11000 looks more reasonable to me based on what we can say reasonable expectation but the events in future we would be exposed to risk and over pessimism can take sunsex to worst levels ie belwo 10 000.