Sensex is heading towards 10000 just my thought

#1
Dear All,

Just my thought.
by Looking all the -ve factor like

1. crude oil above 110.
2. all commodities are at there all time high.
3. Inflation is going up.
4. IIP fig. going dwn.
5. GDP going dwn.
6. subprime problem in india. (ICICI bank)
7. Job cuts in india.
8. 20% salary reduction in satyam.
9. Yen carry trade.
10. Election near future.
11. US recesstion.
12. Very week global market.
13. REality crash in US and UK.
14. FII's are selling heavily from last three month.
15. Expectation of crude touching 200$.
etc. etc.

I got the feeling like we are moving towards the bear market. And we may probably see much and much lower targate of 10000. I was thinking about this when market fall heavily on 21,22.

what is members view?

Ahmed
 
#2
Market losses will be limited to the first 3 weeks of march only, the 3rd week sees consolidation and then uptrend.

We have reached rock bottom for the correction here.
 

jnj333

Active Member
#3
The Sensex - the number, time to identify oneself.

'If the fundamentals of a company are sound and other things remaining constant, it is not going to stop making profits just because an index falls. Neither would the same company make profits quicker just because an index rises, even though there may be short-term movement in the price with the index trend.'

In every bear market, many stocks do very well and so forth many stock fare badly in the biggest of bull markets. Fundamentals prevails eventually. Time always comes which separates the investors from the speculators. Because the investor always knows that this is cyclic process , froth is removed from time to time.

This will come and go, my main watch would be the economic indicators.
 
#4
People talk about fundamentals all the time when the price goes down, "the fundamentals are still strong and does not justify the prices at lower levels". "Fundamentals are relative". There is no hard and fast rule that "for these fundamentals , this should be the price", a stock making having eps 1 may be trading at 20 today making p/e 20. if future supply of money is tight then it may trade at 10 making the p/e 10. it is like interest rates. what is "appropriate interest rate", there is nothing like that, if more people want loans than there is money supply, interest rates go up, if there is a lot of money supply and people are not borrowing, then interest rates go down.
 

jnj333

Active Member
#5
EPS, PE are one of the worst indicators of judging Fundamentals. More better is the intrinsic value which is very very difficult to unearth.
 
#6
EPS, PE are one of the worst indicators of judging Fundamentals. More better is the intrinsic value which is very very difficult to unearth.
i was not saying EPS/PE constitute fundamentals. i said how money supply effects prices, irrespective of fundamentals and technicals.

if i find a company with a market cap of $1B, with cash of $1B , no debt and has assets, i will buy(of couse i do not have that much money) the company before tomorrows market open, what ever it's EPS /PE is. actually there are investors who do this exclusively. buy the co,downsize employees, get the EPS +ve and sell it off besed of the on new valuation.

since you used intrinsic value , please let me know how to calculate that ?

thanks
Srinivas
 

SavantGarde

Well-Known Member
#7
Food For Thought

There Are Stocks Which Have Been So Badly Beaten Down, Normally You Would See Their Current Prices If The Sensex Was @10000


SavantGarde
 

marcus

Active Member
#8
I too believe if at all it is a correction we may be in for a long haul, one decisive factor is the US election a lot would depend on the policies of the incoming govt.

I am almost certain the IT sector will not recover in any event, the reason being they are heavily dependent on export.

Ahmed can you please explain on what you mean by yen carry trade? Every currency pair has a carry trade and the highest rates are with a combination of the YEN and the NZD, what exactly do you mean by "yen carry trade"?
 
#10
"20% salary reduction in satyam"

Is this true? If so, was it across the board? Any links will be appreciated.
US Recession is always an advantage for Indian IT companies for gaining more outsourcing as the US firms would go for costcutting and thus sending their costly process to Cheap Indian Manpower

But the question bigger question is in this envirionment where indians getting good salary, US dollar weakening

Is india still a cheap outsourcing destination? Are indian companies evolved with the Global delivery mechanism to metigate the problems which were already known in the past ........

I believe overall its just a consolidation phase for indian economy.we will evolve and future is bright.
 

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