Are you really making money?

raosrinivas · #81 20th March 2008, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deepsa52

It is quite possible for India to avoid a meltdown, if it decouples more from Europe and US, but that is almost the only option available

I do not believe there is any coupling with the Europe/US in the first place, the way many east asian economies have. till 1992 there wasn't any at all. it started in 1992, there after 1998 , after nuclear test and sanctions again there was break or 2/3 yrs. then after 2004 elections because of communist support to govt, liberal policies slowed down.

there really is going to be only 1 effect , s/w money driving real estate prices. s/w and oil are the only ones effected by external factors, otherwises retail,banks,transport ,power(as of now) are almost all local / govt. it may change in next 10 yrs, but right now , what i see on the ground is mostly local.

deepsa52 · #82 21st March 2008, 08:40 AM

Yes, Warren Buffet calls derivatives weapons of mass destruction. People should have listened to him!!

Also markets may still appear to be healthy and move up when the currency loses value and inflation becomes very high and moves towards hyperinflation; just gives the illusion of a bull market ( Ben's trick , and RBIs too ? ). That is equally as bad as stagflation in Japan from 90's.

deepsa52 · #83 22nd March 2008, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

deepsa52,

Paper currency becoming worthless ! You are really hurt ,..
Asish

By Reuters | 20 Mar 2008 | 05:00 PM ET
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Big Wall Street investment companies are taking advantage of the Federal Reserve's unprecedented offer to secure emergency loans, the central bank reported Thursday.

Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, DC.

The lending is part of a major effort by the Fed to help a financial system in danger of freezing.

Those large firms averaged $13.4 billion in daily borrowing over the past week from the new lending facility. The report does not identify the borrowers.

The Fed, in a bold move Sunday, agreed for the first time to let big investment houses get emergency loans directly from the central bank. This mechanism, similar to one available for commercial banks for years, got under way Monday and will continue for at least six months. It was the broadest use of the Fed's lending authority since the 1930s.

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Everybody is hurt by this - this is daylight robbery of tax payers money ( indirectly ).Does RBI bail you out if your portfolio suffers a loss? They are bailing out Investment companies for their mistakes in trading to avoid a total collapse.

Vast majority of Americans don't know that probably a tornado is coming their way - they are busy watching Britney spears and shopping on Credit ; clothes , jewelery,IT from India and just about everything from China.

This time around it may be different, if US economy collapses, they will try their best to let the world take their share of the pain - they are smart people.

BTW, anger directed at Feds.

uasish · #84 22nd March 2008, 12:06 PM

"The Fed, in a bold move Sunday, agreed for the first time to let big investment houses get emergency loans directly from the central bank. This mechanism, similar to one available for commercial banks for years, got under way Monday and will continue for at least six months. It was the broadest use of the Fed's lending authority since the 1930s."

This is REALLY NEWS.

"Everybody is hurt by this - this is daylight robbery of tax payers money ( indirectly ).Does RBI bail you out if your portfolio suffers a loss? They are bailing out Investment companies for their mistakes in trading to avoid a total collapse."

RBI has not yet done so,hopefully will not do in Near Future.

deepsa52 · #85 23rd March 2008, 02:39 AM

These tactics may boost the markets in the near term though, since investors know that there will be less chance of firms going under. In any downturn there are undercurrents in opposite directions.
If not what can they do next ? Print computer money at a faster pace?

deepsa52 · #86 26th March 2008, 06:00 AM

Another bit of interesting news as well.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/25/news...ion=2008032518

In any case, the reason there will not be large number of failures is that the Fed sacrificed the dollar over the financial institutions , by providing billions dollars of free flowing credit. The only reason that dollar may not collapse in a few years is that the Middle eastern oil is controlled by US and mostly traded in USD .
It may make sense as an inflation hedge ( if you think it terms of how much money it takes to buy food for the next two years) to spread out a little bit in commodities or commodity ETFs. Seems a bit unlikely to see commodity prices coming down in the long run - at least judging by what is happening now.
Later..

uasish · #87 26th March 2008, 09:12 AM

deepsa52,

Our problem is,if there is few up swing days like yesterday then we all will forget & discuss non-chalantly.Whereas this issue has got no chance to subside atleast not before 30 months.

Asish

deepsa52 · #88 26th March 2008, 06:03 PM

Yes, anywhere from 3 years to 20 years or more

( Japan ? ) . But market sometimes factors in all bad news and there may be some nice rallies for a few months here and there.
It helps to look beyond just the stock markets and get the big picture.

deepsa52 · #89 30th March 2008, 04:09 AM

ri Mar 28, 3:06 PM ET

FRANKFURT (AFP) - The European Central Bank said Friday it would provide banks with 150 billion euros (235 billion dollars) in additional liquidity, including its first ever six-month refinancing operations.
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An ECB statement said the move was "aimed at supporting the normalisation of the functioning of the euro money market."

Banks and financial institutions use the money markets to raise funds directly but this source has dried up as defaults on US subprime home loans and subsequent huge losses have undercut confidence, leading to a global credit squeeze.

In the Indian front..

Inflation at 6.68%; experts see CRR hike now
2008-03-28 12:05:42 Source : CNBC-TV18
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Inflation for week ended March 15 is at 6.68% versus 5.92%, much above market expectations of around 6%. It's at a 59-week high.

Inflation numbers are revised to 4.45% versus 3.93% (provisional), for the week ended January 19.

Iron and steel prices have gone up 5.3%, while vegetable prices have gone up 2.5% for the week ended March 15.

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Venkat123 , need to see how long Euro stays stable.

Voltaire (1694-1778) “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero.”
looks like his words are becoming true .150 billion euros is pocket change for Bernanke though.

deepsa52 · #90 4th April 2008, 03:50 AM

George Soros Interview on CNBC today..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=700464629&play=1