Are you really making money?

deepsa52 · #**111** 22nd May 2008, 09:14 AM

If you look at other currencies of major nations, the uptrend against USD still seems to be intact.
I am no economist and it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that Fed is running out of options now. Not many more rate cuts left and the only option they have is the usual one, crank up the printing press.

All other major currencies seemed have resumed their strength against USD, however the Rupee is weakening. RBI has chickened out and is doing a bad job following the footsteps of Bernanke.
Who says Indian's don't have the press ?

http://in.reuters.com/article/compan...00126320080328

Why talk about dollar collapse, lets discuss Rupee collapse.

deepsa52 · #**112** 23rd May 2008, 04:23 AM

As I mentioned in the very first post in this thread, people who have the resources to trade multiple markets will benefit most out of this.
It is bad especially for the retirees and elderly, who will find their years of savings vanishing in one or two years.
Population control starts from the bottom, not from the top of the age bracket.

raosrinivas · #**113** 23rd May 2008, 09:55 AM

I believe Rupee should be allowed to trade in the range of 42-44-46. Below 42 RBI should Buy and store the dollars to help the exporters and above 46 should sell to help the importers. 44 is a good balanced point. at 39 a lot of exporters were feeling the heat particularly in the textiles business.

Regarding the US/china/india projections . there is no doubt china will be a dominant force within the next 20 years. the free trade policies/wto are relatively new ones, the bottomline is how long the US will accept a 50billion trade deficit with china on a monthly basis and the same goes with other countries. i do not believe that it will go on for ever, somethere there will be new taxes on imports into US. it's just a matter of time. countries will again become protectionist and the dynamism will change and new formulas arrive changing the landscape.

deepsa52 · #**114** 23rd May 2008, 04:38 PM

Job losses are part of recessions, and they correct itself over a few years. The consequence of generating more and more of an increasingly worthless currency ( paper or screen money does not matter ) are very severe. And again, you can very well see other major currencies going stronger against the US, that isolates them better if something really bad happens in US.

And in extreme case..

http://seekingalpha.com/article/6958...hyperinflation

deepsa52 · #**115** 5th June 2008, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARMHM

Hi deepsa52
Very interesting articles(links). Keep it up. Here is one I came across one.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Y14&refer=home

Yes it is all built on a house of cards. AMBAC and MBIA down 15 % today. Together, they insure more than a trillion dollars of debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...liF8U&refer=us

And BTW, these ratings are a joke. These should get closer to junk ratings,anyone can see they are tanking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a0tWb0sTTgu8

Saint · #**116** 26th June 2008, 01:18 AM

Quote:

Too much truth in six minutes - listen carefully . Goes back to one thing that will work - decoupling from US. Don't blame the speculator, blame the dollar, blame the Rupee!! As always, govt has a scrape goat and this time its the speculator.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktBDj8VogPo

Some nice discussions,Deepsa,and others........keep em coming!

Saint

deepsa52 · #**117** 26th June 2008, 08:20 PM

Gets into politics, but it is about as open as it gets, difficult to understand?

"...I have a very difficult time understanding why the Government of India continues to pursue a pipeline with Iran and Pakistan

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-n...wmaker/327859/

deepsa52 · #**118** 28th June 2008, 09:45 PM

This changes the equation ; this is something to watch out - how the energy game is being played.

timesofindia . indiatimes . com/China_keen_on_joining_IPI_gas_project_Pak/articleshow/3167501.cms

deepsa52 · #**119** 30th June 2008, 06:15 PM

Interesting one on derivatives. Bear Stern's is small fish compared to what can potentially happen. There are big banks leveraged over 50:1 waiting to unwind their positions.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/8264...economic-crash

As a trend follower , I am happy to get 1 out of 2 trades right, these people need to get about 99% of their transactions right in order to avoid a catastrophe.

I suspect that many of the counter parties in these transactions would have bad balance sheets and will default. A couple of trillion dollars here and there is all that may take to make paper currencies worthless.

It helps to protect oneself from a derivatives disaster by having sufficient emergency food supplies and non-cash physical assets.

deepsa52 · #**120** 2nd July 2008, 04:31 AM

American 'meltdown' reason for money injection Fortis.
28th of June, 9:10
BRUSSELS/AMSTERDAM - Fortis expects a complete collapse of the US financial markets within a few days to weeks. That explains, according to Fortis, the series of interventions of last Thursday to retrieve € 8 billion. "We have been saved just in time. The situation in the US is much worse than we thought", says Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens. Fortis expects bankruptcies amongst 6000 American banks which have a small coverage currently. But also Citigroup, General Motors, there is starting a complete meltdown in the US"

____

Personally I don't believe in these calls of days to weeks, but eventually a US meltdown has to happen.Need to see how the Indian IT folks are going to stand up to their Rs 1 crore houses. Will we see an Indian version of mortgage crisis? How bad is it going to be in places like Hyderabad and Bangalore?.