India's Economic Scenario

Good to see that you are agreeing a little, I also say that India can grow at 7.5-8% and not at 9% and that will be among the fastest in world, maybe behind China, which is still growing at a mammoth pace and will continue, even with US recession.

For the number part, I have posted some like Tax collection numbers, and the CII numbers which right now may be indicative of future growth pattern. Will try to compile and post more of these numbers especially stating the export dependency of our country.

jnj,
The numbers that i was looking for are different. How much did India's export contributed to Its GDP growth? What would India's GDP be if exports had grown by 10% instead of 25+%?

BTW, China because of it's big industrial base oriented towards Japan and the US will see marked decrease in growth.

About India, 7-8% may be at the high of the estimate.

On 30 January 2008, Union Information and Broadcasting Minister Priyaranjan Dasmunsi informed that the cabinet approved easing caps on foreign direct investment in sectors such as civil aviation, petroleum and natural gas, commodity exchanges, credit information services, mining in titanium, industrial parks and construction and development.

The minister added that further details will be given shortly. India expects to attract foreign investment of $26 billion in 2007-08, substantially higher than $16 billion a year earlier.


INDIA IS THE PLACE TO BE AND THE WORLD KNOWS IT!!!!

Big emerging economies will alleviate the U.S. slowdown

As the American economy slows, there are no indications that other countries are tumbling. In particular, the fastest-growing big economies in the world -- China, India, Brazil -- appear set to continue with their robust growth. While a sharp American downturn will surely slow them somewhat, those emerging markets will continue to expand -- to buy, sell and trade -- and this will help the United States.
The quarterly results of many large American multinationals, other than banks, show how. Their profits are growing extremely slowly in the United States -- at best a few percent -- but are surging by 15 percent or 20 percent abroad. Adding all these companies together, we can see why America's trade deficit, which ballooned for decades, has begun shrinking dramatically, by $100 billion over the past year. This trend will accelerate as the dollar's decline continues to make American exports more affordable across the world. A cheap dollar also encourages tourism and investment in America from foreign companies and individuals.
Another group of countries is bailing out the United States in a different way. The past few years have been very good to the world's energy-rich lands, including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Norway. Add to the list China and Singapore, which are not big oil exporters, but have huge financial surpluses. These vast savings have to go somewhere, and sovereign wealth funds -- the investment arms of these nations -- have provided infusions of cash to otherwise desperate American financial companies. Imagine what the U.S. economy would look like without these investments. Many of its most illustrious banks and financial companies would have gone bankrupt, triggering cascades of gloom and doom across America. The fact that large pools of capital are available to shore up faltering giants might add substantially to the stability of the system as a whole.
These trends represent a large shift in the economic order. Power is moving away from the traditional centers of the global economy -- the Western nations -- to the emerging markets. To put it bluntly: The United States is in the beginning of a period of relative decline. It may not be steep or dramatic, but the fact that it's happening is clear. Even if one assumes a slowdown, the other big economies will grow at two and three times the pace of the West. Over time they will take up a larger share of the global economy. This is not defeatism; it's math.
The math has political consequences. Consider how different the crisis is from the panics of the 1990s. The U.S. economy might have been in a stronger position back then, but the real difference is the condition of the rest of the world. In the mid-1990s, Russia was on its knees, begging the West for aid. Today it's growing at 7 percent a year and setting up its own sovereign wealth fund. In the past, East Asian countries were at the mercy of the International Monetary Fund and other Western institutions. Now they post huge surpluses. In fact, more than three-quarters of the world's foreign-exchange reserves are held by emerging-market countries. Wealth and success breed pride and confidence.
All this means that the political and economic clout of the West -- and centrally of the United States -- is waning. You can see this reality in the discussions at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, where Indian businessmen, Russian officials, Saudi investment advisers and Chinese academics are moving to center stage. Or consider President Bush's trip to the Middle East. After making several pleas that Saudi Arabia act to ease oil prices, the president had to accept a hard new truth. He was the supplicant; power lay with the king. In fact, it was the oil minister who brushed off the president's entreaties. What a contrast to the 1990s, when the price of oil hovered under $20 a barrel and the Saudi economy was teetering.
On the American campaign trail, the candidates talk about a world utterly unrelated to the one that is being created. The Republicans promise to wage war against Islamic extremists and modernize the Middle East. The Democrats deplore the ills of globalization and free trade, and urge tougher measures against China. Meanwhile Middle Eastern fund managers and Asian consumers are quietly keeping the U.S. economy afloat.
Fareed Zakaria writes for Newsweek and the Washington Post Writers Group.


SHIFT OF ECONOMIC POWER HAS BEGUN, AM I LUCKY TO BE BORN IN THE GOLDEN PERIOD OF INDIA.

I'll try to find those export numbers too, why dont we cumulative with others joining try to find all the revelant data in order the predict the growth pattern going forward.

sure will do.

SOME NUMBERS

SECTOR WISE GDP GROWTH
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Agriculture 5.92 3.76 2.59
Industry 8.02 10.63 8.63
a.Manufacturing 8.98 12.00 9.44
b.Mining/quarring 4.87 5.70 3.38
c. Electricty 4.68 5.98 7.83
Services 11.01 11.18 10.60
a.Construction 16.46 11.98 9.63
b.Trade,Hotels 11.51 11.82 12.11
c.Finance/insurance11.41 13.92 11.72
d.Community 7.21 6.89 6.97
GDP at Factor cost 9.40 9.62 8.73

2007-08 are advance estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

As one can see Agriculture and Mining are major concerns, thats where the government has to work harder and not worry too much about US recession.
Higher Interest Rates, Low credit availability are main factors affecting GDP growth, FM Sir, Kindly look into these.

jnj,
Can i get my hands on a governement published GDP report?

jnj333 & Venkat123,

Very good excercise is going on here.
I am more interested in the India's Export to US & the subsequent weightage in total GDP,becoz this is going to decline.
Another alarming feature is the Monumental US Treasury papers being held by China,if they unload the entire world's financial Mkt equation may change.

Asish

Thanks uasish,
It's not only Indian exports to US that will decrease but also Indian exports to China and Japan. Reason, the Chinese and Japanese have become manufacturing hubs for US. With the US slow down, factories in China and Japan will be shutdown resulting in loss of capital investment.

One of the main reasons why analysts are predicting a mild recession in the US is because manufacturing has moved overseas.

I found India's GDP report

http://finmin.nic.in/stats_data/nsdp_sdds/index.html