My IntradayView and short term possibilities

Dearest Traderji and respected others,
Tomorrow's strategy is wait and watch.The scrips which are already provided in this page can be broght or sold,acc. as the market behaves.
Hope,u all have a good day of trade tomorrow-----joy_mitali

Thanks Joy,

Thanks for your analysis. Can you tell us what technical tools do you mostly use?

Thanks
Nihar

Hi Joy_mittal,
Thanks for your posts. Can you please let me know the future of TCS and Infosys.
Just before the friday's market collapse i bought TCS @ 1375,Infosys @2010.
As i am beginner in this field and of the confidence that i am having on these two companies i thought of "SAFE SIDE" by putting the amount in these scripts.
Along with these scripts in the month of march i also bought Matrix Labs, TATA Tele and UCO Bank. As the price of these scripts is low i feel comfortable but my worry is about TCS and Infosys.

Please let me know your views on this.

Thanks in advance.
Sunny Day.

Dearest traderji and all others respected seniors and juniors,

The share market is probably one of the greatest actors in the truest sense.Whether the berish phase is over or the advent of a new bullish phase has been initiated,I will not go to that debate.For TATrader has made a real gem of a posting--"Stocks end three day losing streak".

It is somewhere (I do not know exactly remembere the place) I have read that ,the
best of the successful traders makes the core profit by going against the so called market trends,at a specific moment.How true these words are!!!

Wait and watch is my call for tomorow.If u have the guards,go for the greatest uncertanities;u may turn out victorious!!

AS for the reply of sunnyday,I am sorry friend,u have bought both these stoocks at the wrong time,at the wrong price(specially TCS).But then ,both these stocks are blue chips.
U need not worry,if u r an investor, ready for remaining invested for a time span of a minimum of 6 mths.U will obviously get ur price and see profit.I do not know how much u have invested,but if it is in bulk,then remind me in between.IF it falls below the danger zones,then it would be better to book loss(the possibilities r the remotest)and get out.
As per matrix labs,UCObank,u will obviosly see profits in the short time.Cannot gurantee about Tatatele.Just stay cool.
Regards,
joy_mitali

Respected Mittal and other members,

Mittal,
Thanks for your response. I have bought 50 scripts of TCS and 100 scripts of Infosys. My intension of purchasing these 2 scripts is long term i.e, for a period of minium one year. Please inform me when it comes to the danger level.

With the lesson learnt from this experience i wanna be concentrating on small and medium scripts. And of course this is a good lesson to be learnt by all the newbes. I hope all the newbes will be alert on these type of situations.

On behalf of all the newbes i request mittal, sh50, traderji and other respected seniors to guide in these type of situations.

Thanks & Regards
Sunny Day.

hi joy,
I find u r fond of trackingthe stocks and establishing co-relationship with volumes traded. You may find very interesting behaviour in EASUN REROYLE. this stock goes up on very low volumes and comes down on higher volumes. Also it goes against the nifty trend more often than not. May be u will be able the analyise this stock with your deeper understaning and inerest inthe movement of not often heard stocks

Hi ashimindia,
THanks a lot for giving such an interesting problem.If this script isthere in NSE,
I will give it a try to understand the philosophy of this stock and some more of its partners .
Thanks again,
Regards,
joy_mitali

Re: Desperate Help Needed Reg Essar Steel

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Read this. Maybe of some help to you.

Quote---

Essar Steel Limited CMP: Rs 41.8 as on 21-04-2005

Capital Reduction as per CDR scheme

As per the approved Corporate debt restructuring (CDR) scheme, Essar Steel recently announced reduction of equity capital by 40% in lieu thereof issue 0.01% cumulative redeemable Preference Shares.

In layman terms, existing 10 equity shares will get reduced to 4 shares of Rs 10 face value. In addition to this, four 0.01 per cent Cumulative Redeemable Preference shares of Rs 10 will be issued to the shareholders. These preference shares will be redeemed at par in four quarterly installments starting October 1, 2017.

Possible impact analysis

Presently, the equity capital stands at Rs 507.3 crore. This would have expanded to Rs 1420 crore on the back of Rs 912 crore equity dilution over the next 18 months, taking into account the conversion of preference shares to promoters and other companies.

However, the reduction of 40% of existing equity capital of Rs 507.3 crore essentially means that the equity capital will expand to Rs 1217 crore only now.

Taking these facts into account and the estimated net profit of Rs 1200 crore (excluding extra-ordinary items) for FY06. Theoretically, the announced reduction in capital will result in around 30% loss to existing shareholders. Thus, the scrip should correct by 30% from the price of Rs 60 per share from the date of announcement of the CDR scheme, which give a value of Rs 42.

The impact is explained below:-

Without equity reduction, With eq. redn. of 40%
Diluted equity capital - Rs.1420 crore, Rs.1217 crore
Net Profit(FY06E) - Rs.1200 crore, Rs.1200 crore
EPS (A) - Rs.8.5, Rs.9.9
No. of shares held (B) - 10, 6
EPS Value (A x B) - Rs.85, Rs.59
Erosion of value (%) witheq.redn. - 30%


Valuation:

Given the recent steep downward correction, most of the adverse impact of equity capital reduction seems to have been factored in the share price. In terms of valuations, at Rs 45; the stock is trading at 3.9x FY05 earnings (undiluted equity and inclusive extra-ordinary items). And mind you, huge extraordinary items dented FY05 net performance. PAT before extraordinary items stood at Rs 1055 crore.

However, one should keep in mind that trading in equity shares of Essar Steel scrip shall be suspended with effect from April 25, 2005 (i.e. closing hours of trading on April 22, 2005) on account of Reduction of Share Capital. Thus, traders need to exit the stock.

But investors with long-term investment horizon could hold on to the stock and accumulate in case of further declines. Especially since, the CDR scheme and consolidation of business will result in internal accruals of Rs 1000 crore in FY06.

Deepak Jain

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joy i posted this msg here as this was the only way i cld hv yr attetion

cld u plz tell me based on the above report wht i shld do...and in laymans lang wht does tht translate to

Dear Nitin _Guess,
In simplest words, if u have enough capital,and can forget about this holding for a period of 8mts to 1 yr,it is a definite hold on.In fact could give u high returns,beyond expectation.
Otherwise ,in near term u may see a slight bit more fall,after it gets relisted.
The decision to get out with loss,or stay invested is entirely urs.
Still my suggestion:Hold ON.
Regards,
joy_mitali

thank u joy.. i hv great regards for u and yr thoughts.... the face of traderji hs changed ever since u hv joined this forum...

you share yr wisdom and thoughts so freely so selflessly so that everyone can gain

i will hold it... its nearly 25% of my capital but still will hold on


thank u very much and sorry for my rude behaviour of posting this essar-post in this section

nitin