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market will recover quite a bit. and consolidate..........?

market recoverd sensex 225 points nifty 71 points.

europe recovring: FTSE 100 5,993.00 +104.50 +1.77% DAX 6,901.73 +95.44 +1.40%

AP
Top Economists See Signs of Recession
Monday February 25, 3:54 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Top Economists See Growing Signs That the Country Has Toppled Into a Recession


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Job growth is faltering, consumer confidence plunging. The fallout from the worst housing slump in a quarter-century grows. Wherever you look, the signs are unmistakable that the economy is in trouble.
Because of all the bad news, more and more economists foresee the country falling into a recession, according to the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

The group said in a report being released Monday that 45 percent of the economists on its forecasting panel expect a recession this year. In September, only one in four economists was pessimistic enough to put the chance of a recession at 35 percent or higher.

The drumbeat of bad news since last fall has caused many analysts to consider a recession more likely now, said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, chief economist at Ford Motor Co. and NABE's current president.

The survey shows that 55 percent still believe the country will be able to skate by without falling into an actual downturn, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic output, the broadest measure of economic health. All the analysts, however, expect growth to slow considerably this year.

The forecasters believe GDP will expand by 1.8 percent this year, which would be the weakest growth in five years. That compares with an estimate of 2.5 percent growth for 2008 made in the previous survey, in November.

The new estimate is in line with a downgraded forecast from the Federal Reserve this past week.

The NABE forecast reflects the expectation the economy will grow only sluggishly or actually contract from January through June. Then it is seen starting to expand more strongly in the second half of the year. Helping accomplish that is a $168 billion federal aid plan, with its rebate checks for millions of families, and aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed.

The panel of 47 top forecasters thinks "any recession, if it occurs, will be short and shallow," Hughes-Cromwick said.

The biggest change in the new survey involves the outlook for interest rates.

In November, economists expected the Fed would keep a key rate, the federal funds rate, at 4.5 percent through all of 2008. That rate, the target for overnight bank loans, already is at 3 percent, after significant cuts by the Fed in January. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has indicated that further rate cuts will be coming if the economy fails to rebound.

So the NABE experts now predict the funds rate will end this year at 2.5 percent.

Inflation is expected to moderate greatly this year as the weak economy cools price pressures. Inflation shot up by 4.1 percent in 2007, the biggest jump in 17 years.

The Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise by 2.5 percent. That is based in part on the NABE panel's view that demand will weaken for oil and the barrel price will drop to about $84 by December. The current trend, however, is up; crude oil jumped to all-time highs above $100 per barrel over the last week.

The weaker growth will mean higher unemployment, according to the forecasters. They predict that the jobless rate for 2008 will average 5.2 percent, compared with 4.6 percent last year.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com and a NABE panelist, said he believed the economy entered into a recession in December and it will pull out of the downturn in June, aided by the rebate checks that begin going out in May.

If problems worsen for the financial industry, hard hit by the housing downturn, then Zandi said Washington will rush through a second rescue measure because nervous politicians will not want to be seen as dawdling before the November elections.

"A recession in an election year represents a problem for incumbents," Zandi said. "That is why the first stimulus package got passed so quickly and that is why I expect more of a policy response before this is all over."

A second panel member, David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, also believes the country is now in a recession. While he believes the economic aid plan signed by President Bush should make the downturn a mild one, he worries the economy could falter again next year.

"There is a danger that this could turn into a double-dip recession," he said. "Once the rebate checks are spent, we could go back down again."

The latest NABE forecast, however, shows the economy continuing to grow in 2009. It predicts a modest GDP increase of 2.7 percent for the whole year, compared with the 1.8 percent expected this year and the 2.2 percent actual GDP growth in 2007.

Hi, I am Atul here. Your knowledge on market is tremendous. Can we expect what ahead days will be on market before & after budget - 2008

AP
Visa IPO May Be Largest in US History
Monday February 25, 7:56 am ET
Visa Expects to Raise Up to $18.76 Billion in Public Offering of Up to 446.6 Million Shares


NEW YORK (AP) -- Visa said Monday it expects to raise almost $19 billion from an initial public offering, which would easily become the largest IPO in U.S. history.
San Francisco-based Visa Inc. said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing it will offer 406.6 million shares at $37 to $42 per share. There will be an option for its underwriters to buy an extra 40.6 million shares to cover any excess demand.

The filing also showed rival credit card companies MasterCard Inc. and American Express Co. trailing Visa in transactions in 2006.

At $18.76 billion, the Visa IPO of up to 447.2 million Class A shares would surpass the $10.6 billion AT&T Wireless offering in 2000. It would be almost as big as the two largest past deals combined -- AT&T's offering and Kraft Foods' $8.7 billion offer in 2001.

Visa would follow Mastercard from being a privately held interest to a publicly traded company. Mastercard raised $2.39 billion in its IPO nearly two years ago.

At a midpoint price, Visa could raise about $15.6 billion, or more than $17 billion if underwriters exercise their option to buy the entire lot of 40.6 million shares.

Shares of Mastercard have risen fivefold since going public and are now trading at more than $203 each.

Visa made its initial IPO filing in June with the SEC.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.2. A slightly higher to flat open is expected. The only item on the economic calender is the January Existing Home sales at 10:00 ET. Economists expect a reading of 4.80 Million, a decrease of 1.8% month over month. Crude oil is trading slightly higher, up $0.15 to $98.96 per barrel.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures suggest a slightly higher start, but are off their best levels. Continued speculation that there will be a bailout plan for Ambac (ABK) is helping to keep the sellers at bay. In earnings news, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW) topped its earnings expectations, but issued guidance that was below current estimates. There is a merger & acquisition deal of note. Last Friday, video game developer and publisher Electronic Arts (ERTS) offered $26 per share to acquire Take-Two (TTWO) in an all cash deal. Take-Two rejected the deal, and reports indicate EA is going straight to Take-Two's shareholders. In overseas trading, the European bourses are posting a gain of at least 1% and Japan's Nikkei rose more than 3%.

AP
Stocks Edge Up on Ambac Hopes
Monday February 25, 10:23 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Stocks Modestly Higher As Investors Hope for Ambac Capital Injection


NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose modestly Monday as investors remained hopeful that ailing bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. would receive a capital injection that would save its credit rating.
There has been speculation that Ambac might find sufficient capital early this week to hold onto the stellar "AAA" rating it needs to remain in the municipal bond business. However, there was no confirmation that this was the case and the uncertainty began to gnaw at investors

US economy to skirt recession’

news Bureau

Washington, Feb 25: The US economy will likely avoid a recession but growth will slow to a crawl during the first half of this year, a panel of business economists forecast on Monday.

Among the panel of 49 National Association for Business Economics economists surveyed between January 25 and February 13, about 45% said they believe a recession will have occurred by the end of this year. But most believe it will be short and shallow.

The remaining 55% said a downturn will be relatively muted.

"US economic growth is expected to slow to a crawl in the first half of 2008," said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, NABE president and chief economist at Ford Motor Company.

While credit availability is generally viewed as a constraint on the overall economy, about 60% of the panelists see a moderate tightening of lending to consumers and businesses. But a similar percentage expect credit market liquidity and functioning to be restored to normal by the end of this year.

The consensus forecast among those surveyed calls for real economic output – as measured by Gross Domestic Product – to grow at a scant 0.4% annual rate in the first three months of this year and by 1% in the second quarter.

"While a slight majority of our panel of our forecasters expects the economy to avoid a recession in 2008, growth is expected to average just 0.75% before accelerating in the second half in response to fiscal and monetary stimulus," said Hughes-Cromwick.

Stimulus Impact

The economists say that the stimulus package, signed into law earlier this month, with tax breaks for businesses and tax rebates worth up to USD 600 per individual and USD 1,200 per couple, could boost economic growth in the second half to a 2.8% annual rate.

That would bring growth for the year to 1.8%, still down significantly from the 2.6% growth projected in the prior survey taken in November.

About 40% of those surveyed said the fiscal stimulus package will help ward off a recession. Another 30% believe it will keep any recession short and mild and the remaining 30% polled believe the package will either have a negligible impact, is unnecessary, or is coming too late.

The NABE panel significantly trimmed its estimates for consumer spending and housing and cut the outlook for business inventory accumulation. The housing slump is likely to have a "major negative impact" on consumer spending this year, according to more than 60% of the economists polled.

New home starts are expected to total just 1.0 million units in 2008, down from the 1.2 million units projected in November and the 1.5 million units forecast as recently as last May.

‘US economy has stalled’

Meanwhile, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said today that US economic growth has stalled and the longer it stays at zero, the more likely the world`s largest economy will start to contract.

"As of right now, US economic growth is at zero," Greenspan said at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia`s second-largest city. "We are at stall speed."

In updated economic forecasts released last week, the US central bank lowered its outlook for 2008 growth by a half point to between 1.3% and 2%, citing the prolonged housing slump and bottlenecks in credit markets.

The oil boom will "go on forever," Greenspan said.

AP
Stocks Rise As Ambac Rating Affirmed
Monday February 25, 5:40 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Surges As Standard & Poor's Affirms Ambac and MBIA Ratings


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street bolted higher Monday after Standard & Poor's affirmed its ratings for Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., raising hopes that troubled bond insurers will emerge from the credit market crisis on solid footing. The Dow Jones industrials rallied nearly 190 points