UNBIASED OPINION ! 15000 or 21000 ?

surfingminds · #21 7th February 2008, 04:21 PM

I maintain 18 K a very significant pivot level and now it seems that 14 down side is possible. TOday One of analyst on NDTV making noise that they believe sunsex to come at 12 K levels I don't know his credibility but some of the rationals highlighted by him are point of concerns at this time..

I will keep buying on each 500 K to 1000 K decline

Mean while enjoy the bear and bull tussule.

sudoku1 · #22 7th February 2008, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by surfingminds

I maintain 18 K a very significant pivot level and now it seems that 14 down side is possible. TOday One of analyst on NDTV making noise that they believe sunsex to come at 12 K levels I don't know his credibility but some of the rationals highlighted by him are point of concerns at this time..

I will keep buying on each 500 K to 1000 K decline

Mean while enjoy the bear and bull tussule.

the tussle was already over @ 18925 , now the POLAR BEARS ENTER....

Venkat123 · #23 7th February 2008, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpesh14

Venkat, What you think? how low dow will drop? During most recession, Dow dropped to 15-20% from peak. However current dow levels are already 12 - 15 % from peak. What you think? how low can it go?

On an average DOW declines 27% during a mild US recession and 'up to' 37% during a severe recession. Most claim this to be a mild recession but some experts are now moving to the severe recession camp. The way Fed cut rates last month indicates they fear a severe recession.

Having said that, both US and Indian markets are not free. In the Indian markets the finance minister calls insurance companies to stall a free fall. In the US most believe in the existence of a Plunge Protection Team (PPT) made up of the feds, treasury and major banks.

Cisco is going to have a big impact on the tech sector and thus the general market. For some reason tech companies were seen as weathering this crisis but cisco just said that they are having problems as well.

Based on previous slow downs, DOW will go to about 10.5K and BSE 13K. It could be different this time.

rajeshn2007 · #24 7th February 2008, 06:13 PM

now 15 k is nearer. 21 k seems far from here

gvgs98 · #25 7th February 2008, 07:11 PM

Either 15k or 21k doesnt matter to me, becoz i like cash!!!!

Cheers
VG

digest · #26 7th February 2008, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gvgs98

Either 15k or 21k doesnt matter to me, becoz i like cash!!!!

Cheers
VG

thats true.

i am slowly buying bu dont know what would be the lowest level. and it is difficult to hit at right time (at least for me)

but the question is how low it can go 12k, 13.5k, 15k

and which stocks will shoot up fast when market revives

Venkat123 · #27 7th February 2008, 07:40 PM

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3324142.ece

UK meets housing slump.

Is it India's turn next?

alpesh14 · #28 8th February 2008, 12:49 AM

Thanks Venkat,

My 401 is already reduced lot in last 6 months and i can take some more hit before i really think of moving it to money market or just bonds. My thinking may be wrong but I think / consider that number of units in my 401k is same just the value has gone down. So when market recovers, i might recover all. However I can sell all now and buy again at low level but don't know how much i will make/loose. What you think about it?

somehow i had feeling that CISCO will not impact much on market today. as of 2:00 pm dow is up almost 100 points. lets see how long can it stay in green.

Venkat, like BSE hits lower circuit don't dow has value based formula that s&p can't go beyond certain level? US is in recession now. only question is how long will it last?

today MBIA sold 750 mil $ worth shars to maintain their rating. I am sure US govt will come to rescuse and save them to retain rating. else this is going to be huge huge. FED screwed up so much by lowering rate , they won't mind bailing out bonds issuers.

Let come march 18th and we will see one more rate cut. it can be 25 or 50 basis points. hopfully oil prices will go down and inflation might stay within limit.

Edit: ahhh that green didn't last too long. Sorry i was wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venkat123

On an average DOW declines 27% during a mild US recession and 'up to' 37% during a severe recession. Most claim this to be a mild recession but some experts are now moving to the severe recession camp. The way Fed cut rates last month indicates they fear a severe recession.

Having said that, both US and Indian markets are not free. In the Indian markets the finance minister calls insurance companies to stall a free fall. In the US most believe in the existence of a Plunge Protection Team (PPT) made up of the feds, treasury and major banks.

Cisco is going to have a big impact on the tech sector and thus the general market. For some reason tech companies were seen as weathering this crisis but cisco just said that they are having problems as well.

Based on previous slow downs, DOW will go to about 10.5K and BSE 13K. It could be different this time.

alpesh14 · #29 8th February 2008, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venkat123

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3324142.ece

UK meets housing slump.

Is it India's turn next?

ha ha .

Venkat if India is next then i m sure i can get one house which i want from long time.

Venkat123 · #30 8th February 2008, 01:20 AM

The rally is in anticipation of the rebate plan. It looks like the republican paln (-40B) was accepted.
MBIA needs any where between $5B-15B to make things work. They are currently delaying the process hoping rescuers will step in. IMO, if the government does interevene it will be to save the muni part of the buisness.
Something always happens during the long weekend. We have one coming up next week.

Sorry to hear about your 401. If you wanted to sell, you should have sold them last year. I won't be buying anything until April [i think].

The circuit breaker for dow is like 10% of quarter start value. The rules also cover what part of the day the plunge happens.

Moody's downgrades XL Capital to A3 from Aaa. There goes another bond insurer.

View Poll Results: UNBIASED OPINION ! 15000 OR 21000 ?
15000	42	51.22%
21000	40	48.78%
Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll