Market will be up 1000 points tomorrow

Venkat123 · #**101** 27th January 2008, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ashchilly

@venkat
for 2 more years US is clearly out of that danger.. or rather i would say we are out of danger coz of US recession.. Thanks..

Hi Ash,
In my opinion, the lag will be 1 year. Quicker if Japan also enters a recession. Having said that, markets are usually 6 months ahead of what's supposed to happen.

rajeshn2007 · #**102** 27th January 2008, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venkat123

I'm with you on the long term prospects of emerging markets but the short term [1 year or so] is going to be terrible

except india and china, technically most of the markets are trading below their 200 dma. most of the world markets are in a bearish phase. they are unlikely to recover now. ofcourse there might be some bouncebacks, not more that

for india , nifty 4900 is 200 dma, which is crucial.

Venkat123 · #**103** 27th January 2008, 08:20 PM

In my opinion, CNBC India is more ethical than their US counterparts. In US, talking heads usually scream buy untill all the hedge funds have sold. Then they put on a show claiming that they are somehow surprised by 3 month old news.

When i talk about manipulation, it's information manipulation or filtering that i'm worried about. Everyone that comes on TV has the right to an opinion which you may or may not agree with, but if they manipulate information then that's what needs to be complained about.

Venkat123 · #**104** 27th January 2008, 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

If there is an onset of Recession in coming days then the inevitable dreaded Inflation is knocking on the door.So by further rate cut they may inadvertently accelerate the process..

I completely agree. Retries in India and elsewhere are facing a dreadful problem because their savings doesn't buy them much. Their problem just got blown up because of the increase in money supply and rate cuts. Bernanke wants to avoid a repeat of the "Great Depression". However, he is about to create the "The Great Inflation".

Venkat123 · #**105** 28th January 2008, 03:00 AM

http://cbs13.com/local/foreclosures.....2.638417.html

People are walking away from their homes because the homes are valued less than what is owed.

deepsa52 · #**106** 28th January 2008, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venkat123

http://cbs13.com/local/foreclosures.....2.638417.html

People are walking away from their homes because the homes are valued less than what is owed.

The US economy is in life support first time after the world war and the only chance US has is Indian, Chinese and Russian companies going on a shopping spree ( cheap dollar ?) and thus cushioning the free fall.
These times are bad and we should consider ourselves lucky if we don't see another 20% drop.

Venkat123 · #**107** 28th January 2008, 03:08 PM

As i said earlier, there is a good chance of a global recession.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...WCU&refer=home

Japan already in a recession?
It's ``highly likely'' Japan is already in a recession or will enter one this quarter, Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Goldman in Tokyo, wrote in a report published today
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...qFM&refer=home

deep,
A strong currency helps buying.

uasish · #**108** 28th January 2008, 05:58 PM

http://www.traderji.com/150076-post94.html

"i have been getting feedback from my relatives in US and some of my friends who just came back .... i heard that people are still shopping , business is still going strong and the US is far from recession."

As they have a Social Security System in place,the concept of savings is not so much a priority like us.

".. recession is too strong a word to describe this temporary mess.."

Agreed but they are in a Mess.

"The second point is , even if US is going into a recession , the world will continue to park its money in economies that have a strong growth trajectory like india and china..... "

Yes you are right.

rajeshn2007 · #**109** 28th January 2008, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

[url]

the world will continue to park its money in economies that have a strong growth trajectory like india and china..... "

hi,
thats the real problem here. easy credit available for for investing is squeezed because of sub prime issues. credit contraction is taking place and hence the amount of money available previously is not going to be available now. the premium valuations enjoyed by india and china may no longer exist.

deepsa52 · #**110** 28th January 2008, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

http://www.traderji.com/150076-post94.html

As they have a Social Security System in place,the concept of savings is not so much a priority like us.

".. recession is too strong

Yes you are right.

The Social Security system is all but bankrupt. US has deficits running totally out of control and the dollar value is tanking. Recession will be the mildest term, Depression being a more approppriate term when the dollar value in considered.
But India is in a much better off position though the ripple effects will be felt near term.

Watch Bernanke sweat in youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgnfx...eature=related

This one is better, watch the last part,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX9Uei89TuE