Is this the last rise before a fall ?

earthling · #21 4th December 2007, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kprgroup

From Money Control.......................

This span of few weeks allowed me to think and analyse the market deeply indeed. In my view correction has started. In USA it began from 10 Oct. and here it started around 01 Nov. Double top formation when Nifty was in the region of 6000 confirms it further. Do I have your permission to repeat that this correction will take three major alternative swings. Two in the downward direction and the middle one as a rally. The first down swing wave will easily take the Nifty to below 4800 within next few weeks or so. Then a strong and sharp rally will occur and then finally third savage wave C will plunge the Nifty down to 3600. I am very confident to tell that short term investors holding long positions may suffer heavy loss. Short positions with timely exit and entry will benefit most. To prove how right or wrong my views are, I will suggest you to look for my name hindlevernet in moneybhai --a virtual investment game on the site: moneybhai. moneycontrol dot com where my name appears in the first ten in Daily, weekly and monthly toppers whose portfolios outperform others. I have won prizes couple ot times. This description has been given with the sole purpose that it is possible to make near accurate forecast of the market with the help of technical analysis and EWT.----

Wasn't this written by a person who was short in the market?
Please check.

uasish · #22 4th December 2007, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adilsaleem

I guess this thread too is classified as one which is making predictions and rightly said by Ashish dada we are here to learn and not to predict. My pure intention was to record my moves and thoughts in public so that i could reflect back to my mistakes. I do not believe in predicting the market. I believe in going with the trend, but it does get difficult in the current times to carry a position. So the basis for carrying a position is decided based on various economic situations across the world. The bottom line is predicting is not right so i humbly request traderji to close down this thread.

Prediction without following it up with analysis & regular update ,like what Savant does is normally done by either Tipsters (to catch hold few clients) or to get recognition in a trader's forum.

sudoku1 · #23 4th December 2007, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

Prediction without following it up with analysis & regular update ,like what Savant does is normally done by either Tipsters (to catch hold few clients) or to get recognition in a trader's forum.

3 questions.....
> i was getting this much....
> i m getting this much...
> i will get this much...
which one sounds the sweetest...?
...b with the present while analysing the past...the future WILL B TAKEN CARE OF itself.........

sujit_76 · #24 4th December 2007, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kprgroup

From Money Control.......................

This span of few weeks allowed me to think and analyse the market deeply indeed. In my view correction has started. In USA it began from 10 Oct. and here it started around 01 Nov. Double top formation when Nifty was in the region of 6000 confirms it further. Do I have your permission to repeat that this correction will take three major alternative swings. Two in the downward direction and the middle one as a rally. The first down swing wave will easily take the Nifty to below 4800 within next few weeks or so. Then a strong and sharp rally will occur and then finally third savage wave C will plunge the Nifty down to 3600. I am very confident to tell that short term investors holding long positions may suffer heavy loss. Short positions with timely exit and entry will benefit most. To prove how right or wrong my views are, I will suggest you to look for my name hindlevernet in moneybhai --a virtual investment game on the site: moneybhai. moneycontrol dot com where my name appears in the first ten in Daily, weekly and monthly toppers whose portfolios outperform others. I have won prizes couple ot times. This description has been given with the sole purpose that it is possible to make near accurate forecast of the market with the help of technical analysis and EWT.----

History does not support your claim. Historically Dec to Feb period has given 30-40% return for the past 8-9 years if I can recall correctly.
According to you we will see some 16-17 billion $ taken out of indian markets in next few weeks.
Think logically dear. Those FIIs are not fools. Nobody and I mean nobody in the Investment world can ignore India. Wait for 11th Dec and there are chances that we may touch 6100 on NIFTY and 22000 on sensex.

But markets have a mind of there own and I am not PANDIT

. Lets see what happens

beginner_av · #25 4th December 2007, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adilsaleem

Im currently long in hotel leela and nifty

wow you are long 51 stocks!!! or is it 50?

gvgs98 · #26 5th December 2007, 08:11 AM

Though I have not done the technical analysis of the market, I wonder how could we both think alike. I’ll observe your threads now on….

About virtual investment game, I love to play such games to improve my knowledge about investment strategies.

I am also thinking about sujit remarks on this. Nothing personal, but he also made good point about FIIs.

Sudoku, I am not a player of sudoku but your questions are quite inquisitive. Philosophically thinking I would opt for the third choice. Hoping that you are good at sudoku.

adilsaleem · #27 5th December 2007, 06:06 PM

If the market crosses the 6000 mark i would be surprised. I dont think we would see 6000in the coming days hence i am currently holding no positions. Technically the previous all time high will be a stiff resistance. Moving over it with good volumes would be very positive for the market. I dont think we would cross it unless we have a 50 bps cut.

Quote "OPEC, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will leave production unchanged at its meeting today, an official from a Gulf state involved in the talks said."

If the above statement holds good then surely FED has to consider oil prices. Cutting rates would affect the doller negatively and hence we would see a rise in OIL again. After the fed started cutting rates we have seen oil rise to all time highs. If oil rises then inflation would rise and also the US consumer would get more conscious. It would be very difficult for Mr. Bernake to go for a 50 bps cut.

The market would either fall now as it wants a 50 bps cut and the expectation would be of a 25 bps. Or the market would fall post dec 11th when we actually see no cut or maximum a 25 bps cut. Technically 5740 needs to broken which would be the first indication. If 5600 is broken then we are surely going to see a lower bottom (below 5400). I welcome brickbats on my negative views when the market is close to its all time high.

I humbly request anyone viewing this thread not to go by what i say. I welcome views so that we can all learn to analyse the global economic conditions. I humbly request all who are posting here to kindly use terminology that would not hint a straightforward prediction. Also if seniors could highlight various technical indications that could highlight a rise to be a trap it would be wonderful.

adilsaleem · #28 6th December 2007, 05:57 PM

The Bank of England has decided to reduce interest rates to 5.50% from the previous 5.75% after their monthly Policy Meeting Committee

We kissed 6000 again but could not close above it. Still i was wrong. My other statement that was wrong is that i had said that US markets would be weak this week. I will update my updated views here soon

adilsaleem · #29 6th December 2007, 06:24 PM

The week is not over yet. We can see a good fall now till we dec 10th. I am still out of the market. Will go short tom. with a stop loss at todays High.

vachhanipm · #30 7th December 2007, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

Prediction without following it up with analysis & regular update ,like what Savant does is normally done by either Tipsters (to catch hold few clients) or to get recognition in a trader's forum.

Hi Ashish Da,

You may be right but not 100%. Not all the time, prediction without fundamental or technical support is for catching clients or for getting recognition in forum. Sometime it is with the good motive to help the other members.

Everybody knows that technically & fundamentally market is streched. Good amount of correction is expected by everyone in this forum. But no one knows when it is coming.

I personally feel that market will correct heavily within next 10 days. To be precise @2500 points. ( This is not for catching client nor for getting recognition)

regards,
Pankaj