I can help you with fundamental/financial/technical analysis of your stock

avinash_16_2000 · #51 1st November 2007, 04:39 PM

Dear Mohan,
Thank you very much, on your quote on Dhanus Tech.
Please also Indicate your comments on Supreme Infra.

Thanking you,

ayurakshapad · #52 1st November 2007, 07:05 PM

Dear mohansir,
plz give ur opinions abt hindustan liver(hul) in short term (1month).
it has gone down frm 220to 194 frm yesterday after disappointed results?
wat shud be its short trend?
Thanks in advance

drpsiva · #53 1st November 2007, 11:30 PM

sir ,
what are your opinions about reliance infra?can you share both ur fundamental and technical views.i got 15 shares at rs: 3085 yesterday.

mohanlate · #54 2nd November 2007, 04:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avinash_16_2000

Dear Mohan,
Thank you very much, on your quote on Dhanus Tech.
Please also Indicate your comments on Supreme Infra.

Thanking you,

OK here are my views on Supreme Infrastructure Ltd.
The company is into road construction ONLY. And the kind of projects they have make me perceive more as a civil works company. This is a highly competitive business. But it is a smart move from the management to go for backward integration and into quarrying, crushing, asphalt and RMC to stay competitive. This helps them in getting government orders and guard margins and keep them healthy. Having said that, there is nothing great about the company. Quarrying activity is highly regulated and risky.

Recently they bagged a Rs 90-crore order for construction of an IT park hotel from SupremeHousing & Hospitality (SHHL), a company set up by promoters. I am not sure if they have the experience to execute real estate projects. They plan to forey into real estate with this project.

Lets see now- a startup co promoted by the same people offers a project to them does not mean they have entered the real estate business. The dynamics of real estate industry are totally different than what they do.
I am not going to build the real estate project into their story. Therefore let us look at the midium term only.

I normally go by the ROCE to value such companies, along with other valuation metrics. The ROCE for this company is decreasing over last 3 years. As far as P/E multiples goes the valuations appear fair if not overvalued compared to likes of PBA Infrastructure and MSK Projects.

The guidance given by the management sounds optimistic. For a small co like this, focused dangourously on a low entry barrier sector and aspiring to enter the real estate business with the help of an order from a same group promoted start up company, things are too early to put your money on. I am also not sure about the corporate governance of the co.

I would suggest you stay away from such seemingly 'gems' and 'multibaggers'. I am not saying that the co would not realize the 18-22 EPS as per the guidance and also command a P/E of 10-12 to reach around 200-240 by year end. They might just do that. But frankly the risks are too high. I normally discount the EPS guidance of such small companies and use a higher risk premium.

There are other much better infrastructure and real estate and small multibaggers out there with a better risk profile and higher margin of safety. I suggest you dont just go by the words "infrastructure" and "real estate".

Hope it helps. If you have further queries feel free to let me know.

yogesh_cbe · #55 2nd November 2007, 06:15 AM

Hello ,

I am a new bie. i have read many articles about stocks and listen to experts comments.

Among PSU financial stocks: IFCI, IDBI and IDFC.

As per few experts comments, IFCI has huge swings so it always better to avoid if you are trader.

also if you as an investor (as it is keep on losing the number of bidders for its stake take over, it has reduced form 10 to 6 as on the day of writing).

Now only IDFC and IDBI are left. Among these it is safe to be in IDBI.

Please add your comments.

Note: I am not an expert and correct me if i am wrong. Always double check with your advisor's. Constructive criticism are always welcome.

hungama123 · #56 2nd November 2007, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mohanlate

Hi Avinash,

I was looking at Dhanus Tech. I dont see any sustainable competitive advantage in the co. Their only strength is that they could consistently increase their calling card sales. This segment is highy competitive and there is nothing high tech in it. Besides, I think they are yet to get a No objection certificate for sale of international calling cards from the DoT.

Other than calling card marketing they are into s/w and BPO- again nothing great. The BPO contribution to sales is not big.

The fourth area is Vehicle Fleet tracking system- This is a GPS enabled vehicle tracking system. They have registered with DoT and also tied up with Airtel for this. The sales target for next yr is around 35Cr.

This year they also plan to raise USD 200 million for a large acquisition in the US telecom segment.

Their guidance are as follows-
Revenues = 154 Cr.
Net Profit = 48 Cr.
EPS = 30

Therefore at present valuations the target for FY08 is Rs. 600. The valuations look stretched for a small cap, diversified IT comapany like this.

Thanks mohan for explaining such a good way. I will take care about your recommandation and price level for RPL.

can you please suggest any good script for 3-6 month period?

hungama123 · #57 2nd November 2007, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mohanlate

Fundamentally, RNRL is a long term energy play. You wont see sales now, but the market value has already discounted all of its forward looking factors. With sales of 150Cr., the market cap is 20,000 Cr. I think the long term investors are buying it for 2 reasons. One is that the corporate governance is strong and it is a Reliance company, and two that there will be a big energy crisis going ahead and RNRL with its strong execution team can benefit great deal from this opportunity.
The co did make some big moves in various energy segments. Like winning a few large blocks of gas exploration and is today the second largest CBM player in the country in terms of acreage.

Having said that, the fundamentals dont justify the current valuations. So if you are a long term investor, do buy on dips.

If you are a short-mid term trader and want to ride the trend, wait for correction before entering it. RNRL is a momentum stock. There was a breakout from 100 level on the 29th. The stock has already moved up 30% from there and about 15% from where you bought it.

You can exit at around 150-160.

Hope it helps.

Opps sorry it was for your this reply.

simplynikhil · #58 2nd November 2007, 09:26 AM

Hi Guys...
Any suggestions for today...
Will market rise or Fall....
I saw all the major world indices are in RED

what's prediction for NSE / BSE

avinash_16_2000 · #59 2nd November 2007, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mohanlate

OK here are my views on Supreme Infrastructure Ltd.
The company is into road construction ONLY. And the kind of projects they have make me perceive more as a civil works company. This is a highly competitive business. But it is a smart move from the management to go for backward integration and into quarrying, crushing, asphalt and RMC to stay competitive. This helps them in getting government orders and guard margins and keep them healthy. Having said that, there is nothing great about the company. Quarrying activity is highly regulated and risky.

Recently they bagged a Rs 90-crore order for construction of an IT park hotel from SupremeHousing & Hospitality (SHHL), a company set up by promoters. I am not sure if they have the experience to execute real estate projects. They plan to forey into real estate with this project.

Lets see now- a startup co promoted by the same people offers a project to them does not mean they have entered the real estate business. The dynamics of real estate industry are totally different than what they do.
I am not going to build the real estate project into their story. Therefore let us look at the midium term only.

I normally go by the ROCE to value such companies, along with other valuation metrics. The ROCE for this company is decreasing over last 3 years. As far as P/E multiples goes the valuations appear fair if not overvalued compared to likes of PBA Infrastructure and MSK Projects.

The guidance given by the management sounds optimistic. For a small co like this, focused dangourously on a low entry barrier sector and aspiring to enter the real estate business with the help of an order from a same group promoted start up company, things are too early to put your money on. I am also not sure about the corporate governance of the co.

I would suggest you stay away from such seemingly 'gems' and 'multibaggers'. I am not saying that the co would not realize the 18-22 EPS as per the guidance and also command a P/E of 10-12 to reach around 200-240 by year end. They might just do that. But frankly the risks are too high. I normally discount the EPS guidance of such small companies and use a higher risk premium.

There are other much better infrastructure and real estate and small multibaggers out there with a better risk profile and higher margin of safety. I suggest you dont just go by the words "infrastructure" and "real estate".

Hope it helps. If you have further queries feel free to let me know.

Dear Mohan,
I am very happy about your explanation, Thank you very much, I would like to know details about Elecon Engineering and also Adani Enterprises
Can you please enlighten with your feedback on the same.

Expecting your inputs

vishnuindian · #60 2nd November 2007, 12:28 PM

ADANI Please

THANKS FOR UR REPORTS..

ITS GREAT