I can help you with fundamental/financial/technical analysis of your stock

umeshca · #41 29th October 2007, 01:59 AM

Hi Mohan,
Can you please suggest me some good strong shares for a long term (2-3 years).
Also throw some limelight on IDBI. I heard CitiGroup going toenter into IDBI.

Thanks,
Umesh.

mohanlate · #42 1st November 2007, 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by umeshca

Hi Mohan,
Can you please suggest me some good strong shares for a long term (2-3 years).
Also throw some limelight on IDBI. I heard CitiGroup going toenter into IDBI.

Thanks,
Umesh.

Hi Umesh,

Apologies for late reply- Here is the IDBI story :

It owns 5% of IFCI. IFCI is currently under-going a structural change in its
existence with a probable infusion of a strategic partner, which could be Citigroup as you rightly said. OR some other from the same global pedigree. IDBI also co-owns with IFCI, reputed firms of the capital markets like SEBI, NSE, SHCIL, CARE, ISIL, OTCEI and NSDL. It also owns sizable holdings in Money Market institutions like DFHIL, STCIL and CCI.
Apart from these investments, IDBI owns equity investments in various companies and institutions. The bank has quoted equity investments of Rs 85.1bn (Book Value as on March 2006), with a market value of Rs 85.9bn.

The discounted realizable value of these investments are worth Rs 82.3/ share.

The UWB acquisition was very good and IDBI will benefit from it in the long-run. The acquisition increased IDBI’s network by 230 branches from 195 branches to 425 branches. IDBI can leverage on UWB’s widespread network, access to the Low Cost Deposits and expand its Retail Credit Portfolio.

IDBI is also focusing on increasing its Fee Based Income. It has tied up with Fortis Insurance & Federal Bank to form a Life Insurance company, where the Bank holds major stake i.e. 48%. Further, leveraging on corporate relationships, the Bank is expected to increase its offerings and enter businesses such as Assent Management .

At the CMP of 160, the stock trades at 14x FY09E EPS of Rs11.3, 1.23x FY09E Book Value of Rs 129.7.

It is a clear Buy with a target of Rs 200 over next 12 months.

Technically, the setup looks for some big upmoves in the next few sessions. Though 10 is a strong resistance, it looks like we may see a breakout in couple of days. The volumes are increasing.

BUY. For those who want to trade in the short term, BUY with a SL of 145.

mohanlate · #43 1st November 2007, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mohdbinhaid

Hi Mohan,

Can you please give your views on HDIL and IDFC... i am planning to buy them tomorrow and hold them for the next 3 months and more.. whts your view on its fundamental as well as technicals...

Thanks in advance

Regards
Mohammed

Hi Mohammed,

IDFC is all set to ride the infrastructure boom in India for the next 3-4 years. THe spend on infrastructure plans is Rs 14500bn during the 11th plan (2007-2012), an increase of 8% by 2012 of GDP from currently 4.5% of GDP. Indian Government has encourages private participation and eased entry of private players by oferring concessions and offering great opportunities for private players among which IDFC is a dominant player in this segment.

IDFC has strategically built domain expertise in many sectors and its positioning itself as a specialist infrastructure institution has helped it develop a sharp focus in areas such as project appraisal. IT has developed strong risk management systems and as result of which it has one of the best asset quality in the industry. The company’s Gross NPAs stood at Rs 300 mn (0.2%) and Net NPAs are nil.

IDFC is also diversifying its revenue stream from lending spreads to the fee based income. The company has made a smart move by developing the capabilities in
fee-generation segments viz. Asset management and the investment banking to mitigate the risk of the rising interest rates.

Income from Operations went up by 49.2% in FY07 and PAT increased by 29%.

At the CMP of 193, the stock trades at 31.12X, FY09E EPS of Rs 6.2, 4X FY09E Book Value of Rs 47.3.

BUY with a 12 month Target Price of Rs 222 at which it would quote at 4.7x of its FY09E book value.

Hope this helps.

Mohan
http://investmentideas4india.blogspot.com

hungama123 · #44 1st November 2007, 08:53 AM

Hi Mohan,

I purchased RNRL at 114. I dont know is it good to enter at this level or not.

Can you please suggest me is it ok? Also what do you think is the best level to exit and if in dip is it good to accumulate more?

Thanks.

avinash_16_2000 · #45 1st November 2007, 09:47 AM

Dear Mohan

Can you please suggest the prospectus of Dhanus Tech and Supreme infra.
I have some shares of the above and Supreme infra is now in down stream, also about dhanus i would like to know the immediate prospects, like to know the call for both.
Please suggest

mohanlate · #46 1st November 2007, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hungama123

Hi Mohan,

I purchased RNRL at 114. I dont know is it good to enter at this level or not.

Can you please suggest me is it ok? Also what do you think is the best level to exit and if in dip is it good to accumulate more?

Thanks.

Fundamentally, RNRL is a long term energy play. You wont see sales now, but the market value has already discounted all of its forward looking factors. With sales of 150Cr., the market cap is 20,000 Cr. I think the long term investors are buying it for 2 reasons. One is that the corporate governance is strong and it is a Reliance company, and two that there will be a big energy crisis going ahead and RNRL with its strong execution team can benefit great deal from this opportunity.
The co did make some big moves in various energy segments. Like winning a few large blocks of gas exploration and is today the second largest CBM player in the country in terms of acreage.

Having said that, the fundamentals dont justify the current valuations. So if you are a long term investor, do buy on dips.

If you are a short-mid term trader and want to ride the trend, wait for correction before entering it. RNRL is a momentum stock. There was a breakout from 100 level on the 29th. The stock has already moved up 30% from there and about 15% from where you bought it.

You can exit at around 150-160.

Hope it helps.

mohanlate · #47 1st November 2007, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avinash_16_2000

Dear Mohan

Can you please suggest the prospectus of Dhanus Tech and Supreme infra.
I have some shares of the above and Supreme infra is now in down stream, also about dhanus i would like to know the immediate prospects, like to know the call for both.
Please suggest

Hi Avinash,

I was looking at Dhanus Tech. I dont see any sustainable competitive advantage in the co. Their only strength is that they could consistently increase their calling card sales. This segment is highy competitive and there is nothing high tech in it. Besides, I think they are yet to get a No objection certificate for sale of international calling cards from the DoT.

Other than calling card marketing they are into s/w and BPO- again nothing great. The BPO contribution to sales is not big.

The fourth area is Vehicle Fleet tracking system- This is a GPS enabled vehicle tracking system. They have registered with DoT and also tied up with Airtel for this. The sales target for next yr is around 35Cr.

This year they also plan to raise USD 200 million for a large acquisition in the US telecom segment.

Their guidance are as follows-
Revenues = 154 Cr.
Net Profit = 48 Cr.
EPS = 30

Therefore at present valuations the target for FY08 is Rs. 600. The valuations look stretched for a small cap, diversified IT comapany like this.

aijaz159 · #48 1st November 2007, 01:41 PM

Dear Mr Mohan,could you pls tell me whats are the basics of selecting a stock, profits yoy or qonq, eps, roe, etc. which are more essential to look at before attempting to buy.
regards
aijaz.

mohanlate · #49 1st November 2007, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aijaz159

Dear Mr Mohan,could you pls tell me whats are the basics of selecting a stock, profits yoy or qonq, eps, roe, etc. which are more essential to look at before attempting to buy.
regards
aijaz.

Dear Aijaz,

That is a very good question. Instead of giving a short quick answer I am planning to put up a process for selecting stocks based on fundamentals. Please give me some time to put together a document detailing all the factors and sources of info to consider. I may even cover a few areas on the basics on equity research analysis and valuations.

Thanks,
Mohan

http://investmentideas4india.blogspot.com

MiLiNDOnline · #50 1st November 2007, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mohanlate

Dear Aijaz,

That is a very good question. Instead of giving a short quick answer I am planning to put up a process for selecting stocks based on fundamentals. Please give me some time to put together a document detailing all the factors and sources of info to consider. I may even cover a few areas on the basics on equity research analysis and valuations.

Thanks,
Mohan

http://investmentideas4india.blogspot.com

Hi Mohan,

I hope you are doing good, would you please see my message and get back to me accordingly?

On your above message- I agree with you that RNRL and RPL and BIG TIME players.

Regards,
MiLiND