Was the CRASH EXPECTED == YES IT WAS

Well when it comes to forex there are certain golden rules to trading and the same apply elsewhere also.

We take forex as a measure because the $$ news applies to stock markets very strongly, if $$ gains strength very sharply then the Indian stock markets crash very badly.

Being forex traders we get advance warning on what to expect on the stock markets the next day, this comes with practice.

One of the rules specifies " Plan your trade and then trade your plan "

Be very careful in planning your trades, look into all aspects including what levels to expect and the waiting period.

In forex we consider a waiting period of more than 24 hours to get profits as BS (bullshit) the same applies in stocks, the waiting time to get profits should be the least, only then it is a good trade.

This comes with excellent technical analysis of the stocks over daily or weekly or monthly periods depending on your holding pattern.

There are other rules like trade only when you are fully confident on profits to be earned, never never trade based on recommendations and so on.

But plan your trade is very very important.

Remember one thing always, it is the news which follows the technical analysis of the charts, not the charts.

If the harts say the markets have entered into overbought area then some sort of news will always end up crashing it, this has happened everytime in the past if you do backtesting.

And this happens regularly in forex, no wonder we are able to fo recast extremely volative news events hours before they happen.

Hi Jungle Lion,

The information you have given is excellent. I've heard the term "trade plan" before. Can you give a few more details about creating one?

Thanks,
agarth

Hello Jungle Lion,

Thanks for the reply regarding data import into MT4. I was aware of the server method in your reply . This was stated in metatrader site. But it is too expensive for me . I was pondering if there was any other easy method hence my query to you.

I fully agree with one of your comments. I quote below

"One of the rules specifies " Plan your trade and then trade your plan "

Be very careful in planning your trades, look into all aspects including what levels to expect and the waiting period.

In forex we consider a waiting period of more than 24 hours to get profits as BS (bullshit) the same applies in stocks, the waiting time to get profits should be the least, only then it is a good trade."

Regards

Saji

Hello Saji and Junglee Lion,
Thanks for the information. If you could explain a little bit further, I shall be thankful to you. My questions are

1. What are these MM levels? Is it Murre Math Systems? (Is the spelling correct?) or is it something else?

2. Where to find literature on this?

3. How and where do you set/decide 0/8 level and 8/8 level?
Kindly explain. Thanks in advance and regards
R. S. Iyer

Murray Math

In very very simple words, forget the x/9 levels, just remember this:

• Upper silver or white lines are the maximum the price can go up in a particular week's trend
• lower silver or white lines are the maximum price can go down
• the purple line is the median and the most like spot for the price to move to
• the yellow lines are the immediate support resistance levels, so if in the silver zone, then first target is the yellow lines
• Always expect the price to move to the immediate upper or lower line first.

Metastock formula for Murray Math is :-

------------------8-----------------------

SqW:=Input("Square Width (Days)",4,256,64);
MM:=Input("Start Date Month",1,12,10);
DD:=Input("Start Date Day ",1,31, 5);
YY:=Input("Start Date Year ",1700,2100,1998);

T0:=LastValue(ValueWhen(1,DayOfMonth()=DD AND
Month()=MM AND
Year()=YY,Cum(1)));

Sqrs:=Int((LastValue(Cum(1))-T0)/SqW)-1;

S0:=T0+(Sqrs*SqW);

Lo:=LastValue(ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)=S0+SqW-1,
LLV(Min(H,L),SqW)));

Hi:=LastValue(ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)=S0+SqW-1,
HHV(Max(H,L),SqW)));

Sf:=
If(Hi>25,If(Log(0.4*Hi)/Log(10)-
Int(Log(0.4*Hi)/Log(10))>0,
Exp(Log(10)*(Int(Log(0.4*Hi)/Log(10))+1)),
Exp(Log(10)*(Int(Log(0.4*Hi)/Log(10))))),
100*Exp(Log(8)*(Int(Log(0.005*Hi)/Log(8)))));

N:=
If(Log(Sf/(Hi-Lo))/Log(8)<=0,0,
If(Frac(Log(Sf/(Hi-Lo))/Log(8))=0,
Int(Log(Sf/(Hi-Lo))/Log(8)),
Int(Log(Sf/(Hi-Lo))/Log(8))+1));

Si:=Sf*Exp(-N*Log(8));

M:=Int(((1/Log(2))*Log((Hi-Lo)/Si))+.00001);

I:=Round(((Hi+Lo)*.5)/(Si*Exp((M-1)*Log(2))));

B:=(I-1)*Si*Exp((M-1)*Log(2));
TT:=(I+1)*Si*Exp((M-1)*Log(2));

Er:=If(Hi-TT>0.25*(TT-B) OR
B-Lo>0.25*(TT-B),1,0);

MM:=If(Er=0,M,If(Er=1 AND M<2,M+1,0));
NN:=If(Er=0,N,If(Er=1 AND M<2,N,N-1));

Si:=Sf*Exp(-NN*Log(8));

I:=Round(((Hi+Lo)*.5)/
(Si*Exp((MM-1)*Log(2))));

B:=ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
(I-1)*Si*Exp((MM-1)*Log(2)));

TT:=ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
(I+1)*Si*Exp((MM-1)*Log(2)));

B;

{L1:=}ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
B+(0.125*(TT-B)));

{L2:=}ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
B+(2.0*(0.125*(TT-B))));

{L3:=}ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
B+(3.0*(0.125*(TT-B))));

{L4:=}ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
B+(4.0*(0.125*(TT-B))));

{L5:=}ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
B+(5.0*(0.125*(TT-B))));

{L6:=}ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
B+(6.0*(0.125*(TT-B))));

{L7:=}ValueWhen(1,Cum(1)>=S0,
B+(7.0*(0.125*(TT-B))));

TT;

------------------8-----------------------

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Murrey_Math_MT_VG.mq4 |
//| Copyright © 2004, Vladislav Goshkov (VG). |
//| 4vg@mail.ru |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#property copyright "Vladislav Goshkov (VG)."
#property link "4vg@mail.ru"

#property indicator_chart_window

// ================================================== ==========================================
// * Ëèíèè 8/8 è 0/8 (Îêîí÷àòåëüíîå ñîïðîòèâëåíèå).
// * Ýòè ëèíèè ñàìûå ñèëüíûå è îêàçûâàþò ñèëüíåéøèå ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ è ïîääåðæêó.
// ================================================== ==========================================
//* Ëèíèÿ 7/8 (Ñëàáàÿ, ìåñòî äëÿ îñòàíîâêè è ðàçâîðîòà). Weak, Stall and Reverse
//* Ýòà ëèíèÿ ñëàáà. Åñëè öåíà çàøëà ñëèøêîì äàëåêî è ñëèøêîì áûñòðî è åñëè îíà îñòàíîâèëàñü îêîëî ýòîé ëèíèè,
//* çíà÷èò îíà ðàçâåðíåòñÿ áûñòðî âíèç. Åñëè öåíà íå îñòàíîâèëàñü îêîëî ýòîé ëèíèè, îíà ïðîäîëæèò äâèæåíèå ââåðõ ê 8/8.
// ================================================== ==========================================
//* Ëèíèÿ 1/8 (Ñëàáàÿ, ìåñòî äëÿ îñòàíîâêè è ðàçâîðîòà). Weak, Stall and Reverse
//* Ýòà ëèíèÿ ñëàáà. Åñëè öåíà çàøëà ñëèøêîì äàëåêî è ñëèøêîì áûñòðî è åñëè îíà îñòàíîâèëàñü îêîëî ýòîé ëèíèè,
//* çíà÷èò îíà ðàçâåðíåòñÿ áûñòðî ââåðõ. Åñëè öåíà íå îñòàíîâèëàñü îêîëî ýòîé ëèíèè, îíà ïðîäîëæèò äâèæåíèå âíèç ê 0/8.
// ================================================== ==========================================
//* Ëèíèè 6/8 è 2/8 (Âðàùåíèå, ðàçâîðîò). Pivot, Reverse
//* Ýòè äâå ëèíèè óñòóïàþò â ñâîåé ñèëå òîëüêî 4/8 â ñâîåé ñïîñîáíîñòè ïîëíîñòüþ ðàçâåðíóòü öåíîâîå äâèæåíèå.
// ================================================== ==========================================
//* Ëèíèÿ 5/8 (Âåðõ òîðãîâîãî äèàïàçîíà). Top of Trading Range
//* Öåíû âñåõ ðûíêîâ òðàòÿò 40% âðåìåíè, íà äâèæåíèå ìåæäó 5/8 è 3/8 ëèíèÿìè.
//* Åñëè öåíà äâèãàåòñÿ îêîëî ëèíèè 5/8 è îñòàåòñÿ îêîëî íåå â òå÷åíèè 10-12 äíåé, ðûíîê ñêàçàë ÷òî ñëåäóåò
//* ïðîäàâàòü â ýòîé «ïðåìèàëüíîé çîíå», ÷òî è äåëàþò íåêîòîðûå ëþäè, íî åñëè öåíà ñîõðàíÿåò òåíäåíöèþ îñòàâàòüñÿ
//* âûøå 5/8, òî îíà è îñòàíåòñÿ âûøå íåå. Åñëè, îäíàêî, öåíà ïàäàåò íèæå 5/8, òî îíà ñêîðåå âñåãî ïðîäîëæèò
//* ïàäàòü äàëåå äî ñëåäóþùåãî óðîâíÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ.
// ================================================== ==========================================
//* Ëèíèÿ 3/8 (Äíî òîðãîâîãî äèàïàçîíà). Bottom of Trading Range
//* Åñëè öåíû íèæå ýòîé ëèíè è äâèãàþòñÿ ââåðõ, òî öåíå áóäåò ñëîæíî ïðîáèòü ýòîò óðîâåíü.
//* Åñëè ïðîáèâàþò ââåðõ ýòó ëèíèþ è îñòàþòñÿ âûøå íåå â òå÷åíèè 10-12 äíåé, çíà÷èò öåíû îñòàíóòñÿ âûøå ýòîé ëèíèè
//* è ïîòðàòÿò 40% âðåìåíè äâèãàÿñü ìåæäó ýòîé ëèíèåé è 5/8 ëèíèåé.
// ================================================== ==========================================
//* Ëèíèÿ 4/8 (Ãëàâíàÿ ëèíèÿ ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ/ïîääåðæêè). Major Support/Resistance
//* Ýòà ëèíèÿ îáåñïå÷èâàåò íàèáîëüøåå ñîïðîòèâëåíèå/ïîääåðæêó. Ýòîò óðîâåíü ÿâëÿåòñÿ ëó÷øèì äëÿ íîâîé ïîêóïêè èëè ïðîäàæè.
//* Åñëè öåíà íàõîäèòñÿ âûøå 4/8, òî ýòî ñèëüíûé óðîâåíü ïîääåðæêè. Åñëè öåíà íàõîäèòñÿ íèæå 4/8, òî ýòî ïðåêðàñíûé óðîâåíü
//* ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ.
// ================================================== ==========================================
extern int P = 64;
extern int MMPeriod = 60;
extern int StepBack = 0;

extern color mml_clr_m_2_8 = White; // [-2]/8
extern color mml_clr_m_1_8 = White; // [-1]/8
extern color mml_clr_0_8 = Aqua; // [0]/8
extern color mml_clr_1_8 = Yellow; // [1]/8
extern color mml_clr_2_8 = Red; // [2]/8
extern color mml_clr_3_8 = Green; // [3]/8
extern color mml_clr_4_8 = DarkOrchid; // [4]/8
extern color mml_clr_5_8 = Green; // [5]/8
extern color mml_clr_6_8 = Red; // [6]/8
extern color mml_clr_7_8 = Yellow; // [7]/8
extern color mml_clr_8_8 = Aqua; // [8]/8
extern color mml_clr_p_1_8 = White; // [+1]/8
extern color mml_clr_p_2_8 = White; // [+2]/8

extern int mml_wdth_m_2_8 = 2; // [-2]/8
extern int mml_wdth_m_1_8 = 1; // [-1]/8
extern int mml_wdth_0_8 = 1; // [0]/8
extern int mml_wdth_1_8 = 1; // [1]/8
extern int mml_wdth_2_8 = 1; // [2]/8
extern int mml_wdth_3_8 = 1; // [3]/8
extern int mml_wdth_4_8 = 1; // [4]/8
extern int mml_wdth_5_8 = 1; // [5]/8
extern int mml_wdth_6_8 = 1; // [6]/8
extern int mml_wdth_7_8 = 1; // [7]/8
extern int mml_wdth_8_8 = 1; // [8]/8
extern int mml_wdth_p_1_8 = 1; // [+1]/8
extern int mml_wdth_p_2_8 = 2; // [+2]/8

extern color MarkColor = Blue;
extern int MarkNumber = 217;


double dmml = 0,
dvtl = 0,
sum = 0,
v1 = 0,
v2 = 0,
mn = 0,
mx = 0,
x1 = 0,
x2 = 0,
x3 = 0,
x4 = 0,
x5 = 0,
x6 = 0,
y1 = 0,
y2 = 0,
y3 = 0,
y4 = 0,
y5 = 0,
y6 = 0,
octave = 0,
fractal = 0,
range = 0,
finalH = 0,
finalL = 0,
mml[13];

string ln_txt[13],
buff_str = "";

int
bn_v1 = 0,
bn_v2 = 0,
OctLinesCnt = 13,
mml_thk = 8,
mml_clr[13],
mml_wdth[13],
mml_shft = 35,
nTime = 0,
CurPeriod = 0,
nDigits = 0,
i = 0;
int NewPeriod=0;
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator initialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int init() {
//---- indicators
MMPeriod=Period();
if(MMPeriod>0)
NewPeriod = P*MathCeil(MMPeriod/Period());
else NewPeriod = P;

ln_txt[0] = "[-2/8]P";// "extremely overshoot [-2/8]";// [-2/8]
ln_txt[1] = "[-1/8]P";// "overshoot [-1/8]";// [-1/8]
ln_txt[2] = "[0/8]P";// "Ultimate Support - extremely oversold [0/8]";// [0/8]
ln_txt[3] = "[1/8]P";// "Weak, Stall and Reverse - [1/8]";// [1/8]
ln_txt[4] = "[2/8]P";// "Pivot, Reverse - major [2/8]";// [2/8]
ln_txt[5] = "[3/8]P";// "Bottom of Trading Range - [3/8], if 10-12 bars then 40% Time. BUY Premium Zone";//[3/8]
ln_txt[6] = "[4/8]P";// "Major Support/Resistance Pivotal Point [4/8]- Best New BUY or SELL level";// [4/8]
ln_txt[7] = "[5/8]P";// "Top of Trading Range - [5/8], if 10-12 bars then 40% Time. SELL Premium Zone";//[5/8]
ln_txt[8] = "[6/8]P";// "Pivot, Reverse - major [6/8]";// [6/8]
ln_txt[9] = "[7/8]P";// "Weak, Stall and Reverse - [7/8]";// [7/8]
ln_txt[10] = "[8/8]P";// "Ultimate Resistance - extremely overbought [8/8]";// [8/8]
ln_txt[11] = "[+1/8]P";// "overshoot [+1/8]";// [+1/8]
ln_txt[12] = "[+2/8]P";// "extremely overshoot [+2/8]";// [+2/8]

//mml_shft = 3;
mml_thk = 3;

// Íà÷àëüíàÿ óñòàíîâêà öâåòîâ óðîâíåé îêòàâ è òîëùèíû ëèíèé
mml_clr[0] = mml_clr_m_2_8; mml_wdth[0] = mml_wdth_m_2_8; // [-2]/8
mml_clr[1] = mml_clr_m_1_8; mml_wdth[1] = mml_wdth_m_1_8; // [-1]/8
mml_clr[2] = mml_clr_0_8; mml_wdth[2] = mml_wdth_0_8; // [0]/8
mml_clr[3] = mml_clr_1_8; mml_wdth[3] = mml_wdth_1_8; // [1]/8
mml_clr[4] = mml_clr_2_8; mml_wdth[4] = mml_wdth_2_8; // [2]/8
mml_clr[5] = mml_clr_3_8; mml_wdth[5] = mml_wdth_3_8; // [3]/8
mml_clr[6] = mml_clr_4_8; mml_wdth[6] = mml_wdth_4_8; // [4]/8
mml_clr[7] = mml_clr_5_8; mml_wdth[7] = mml_wdth_5_8; // [5]/8
mml_clr[8] = mml_clr_6_8; mml_wdth[8] = mml_wdth_6_8; // [6]/8
mml_clr[9] = mml_clr_7_8; mml_wdth[9] = mml_wdth_7_8; // [7]/8
mml_clr[10] = mml_clr_8_8; mml_wdth[10]= mml_wdth_8_8; // [8]/8
mml_clr[11] = mml_clr_p_1_8; mml_wdth[11]= mml_wdth_p_1_8; // [+1]/8
mml_clr[12] = mml_clr_p_2_8; mml_wdth[12]= mml_wdth_p_2_8; // [+2]/8


//----
return(0);
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custor indicator deinitialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int deinit() {
//---- TODO: add your code here
Comment(" ");
for(i=0;i<OctLinesCnt;i++) {
buff_str = "mml"+i;
ObjectDelete(buff_str);
buff_str = "mml_txt"+i;
ObjectDelete(buff_str);
buff_str = "MML_LatestCulcBar";
ObjectDelete(buff_str);
}
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator iteration function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int start() {

//---- TODO: add your code here

if( (nTime != Time[0]) || (CurPeriod != Period()) ) {

//price
bn_v1 = Lowest(NULL,0,MODE_LOW,NewPeriod+StepBack,StepBack );
bn_v2 = Highest(NULL,0,MODE_HIGH,NewPeriod+StepBack,StepBa ck);

v1 = Low[bn_v1];
v2 = High[bn_v2];

//determine fractal.....
if( v2<=250000 && v2>25000 )
fractal=100000;
else
if( v2<=25000 && v2>2500 )
fractal=10000;
else
if( v2<=2500 && v2>250 )
fractal=1000;
else
if( v2<=250 && v2>25 )
fractal=100;
else
if( v2<=25 && v2>12.5 )
fractal=12.5;
else
if( v2<=12.5 && v2>6.25)
fractal=12.5;
else
if( v2<=6.25 && v2>3.125 )
fractal=6.25;
else
if( v2<=3.125 && v2>1.5625 )
fractal=3.125;
else
if( v2<=1.5625 && v2>0.390625 )
fractal=1.5625;
else
if( v2<=0.390625 && v2>0)
fractal=0.1953125;

range=(v2-v1);
sum=MathFloor(MathLog(fractal/range)/MathLog(2));
octave=fractal*(MathPow(0.5,sum));
mn=MathFloor(v1/octave)*octave;
if( (mn+octave)>v2 )
mx=mn+octave;
else
mx=mn+(2*octave);


// calculating xx
//x2
if( (v1>=(3*(mx-mn)/16+mn)) && (v2<=(9*(mx-mn)/16+mn)) )
x2=mn+(mx-mn)/2;
else x2=0;
//x1
if( (v1>=(mn-(mx-mn)/8))&& (v2<=(5*(mx-mn)/8+mn)) && (x2==0) )
x1=mn+(mx-mn)/2;
else x1=0;

//x4
if( (v1>=(mn+7*(mx-mn)/16))&& (v2<=(13*(mx-mn)/16+mn)) )
x4=mn+3*(mx-mn)/4;
else x4=0;

//x5
if( (v1>=(mn+3*(mx-mn)/8))&& (v2<=(9*(mx-mn)/8+mn))&& (x4==0) )
x5=mx;
else x5=0;

//x3
if( (v1>=(mn+(mx-mn)/8))&& (v2<=(7*(mx-mn)/8+mn))&& (x1==0) && (x2==0) && (x4==0) && (x5==0) )
x3=mn+3*(mx-mn)/4;
else x3=0;

//x6
if( (x1+x2+x3+x4+x5) ==0 )
x6=mx;
else x6=0;

finalH = x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6;

// calculating yy
//y1
if( x1>0 )
y1=mn;
else y1=0;

//y2
if( x2>0 )
y2=mn+(mx-mn)/4;
else y2=0;

//y3
if( x3>0 )
y3=mn+(mx-mn)/4;
else y3=0;

//y4
if( x4>0 )
y4=mn+(mx-mn)/2;
else y4=0;

//y5
if( x5>0 )
y5=mn+(mx-mn)/2;
else y5=0;

//y6
if( (finalH>0) && ((y1+y2+y3+y4+y5)==0) )
y6=mn;
else y6=0;

finalL = y1+y2+y3+y4+y5+y6;

for( i=0; i<OctLinesCnt; i++) {
mml[i] = 0;
}
//Alert(finalL);
dmml = (finalH-finalL)/8;

mml[0] =(finalL-dmml*2); //-2/8
for( i=1; i<OctLinesCnt; i++) {
mml[i] = mml[i-1] + dmml;
}
for( i=0; i<OctLinesCnt; i++ ){
buff_str = "mml"+i;
if(ObjectFind(buff_str) == -1) {
ObjectCreate(buff_str, OBJ_HLINE, 0, Time[0], mml[i]);
ObjectSet(buff_str, OBJPROP_STYLE, STYLE_SOLID);
ObjectSet(buff_str, OBJPROP_COLOR, mml_clr[i]);
ObjectSet(buff_str, OBJPROP_WIDTH, mml_wdth[i]);
ObjectMove(buff_str, 0, Time[0], mml[i]);
}
else {
ObjectMove(buff_str, 0, Time[0], mml[i]);
}

buff_str = "mml_txt"+i;
if(ObjectFind(buff_str) == -1) {
ObjectCreate(buff_str, OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[mml_shft], mml_shft);
ObjectSetText(buff_str, ln_txt[i], 8, "Arial", mml_clr[i]);
ObjectMove(buff_str, 0, Time[mml_shft], mml[i]);
}
else {
ObjectMove(buff_str, 0, Time[mml_shft], mml[i]);
}
} // for( i=1; i<=OctLinesCnt; i++ ){

nTime = Time[0];
CurPeriod= Period();

string buff_str = "MML_LatestCulcBar";
if(ObjectFind(buff_str) == -1) {
ObjectCreate(buff_str, OBJ_ARROW,0, Time[StepBack], Low[StepBack]-2*Point );
ObjectSet(buff_str, OBJPROP_ARROWCODE, MarkNumber);
ObjectSet(buff_str, OBJPROP_COLOR, MarkColor);
}
else {
ObjectMove(buff_str, 0, Time[StepBack], Low[StepBack]-2*Point );
}

}

//---- End Of Program
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+

Hello RSI,

The name is Murrey Math(http://www.murreymath.com). I use it in a simple way. What Murrey teaches is bit too complex for me. But his system is definitely useful and reliable if used properly. I can give you few materials if you require.

I cannot attach with traderji due to size limitation of file.Send me your PM. Any way a small word file i will attach with this reply. Especially go through the material in green color at the end of word document. These i had collected from various sources and attached with my amibroker formula for quick reference. These are experiences and methods of using murrey math of some real forex traders.That will be more than sufficient to trade little more confidently.

Regards

Saji

Attached Files

murrey.doc (86.5 KB, 97 views)

Now this thread is getting somewhere more constructive

Why do people have to stop others from helping, does it affect their trades?