Most Horrible Times As A Ta

prabhjeetrana · #1 6th October 2007, 10:49 AM

Hi all

This thread is to express my most horrible times as a technical analyst where markets have slapped me not only once or twice but more than ten times in a row yesterday. My first impression in the morning was that markets will zoom past 18000 and all shorts will cover and we will close at about 18100 levels, than market had something else to say, it started correcting and suddenly nifty was -25 so i squared my longs on nifty, after 1 hr. nifty was up again +30 pts., i thought this was my time now sensex will breach 18000, i again went long on nifty and when i saw market 5 min. before close, i was horror struck to see nifty back in red and i had to again square my long positions and if this was no all now i see nasdaq and dow making new highs on friday night.

Must confess that since last may correction i have never been so confused predicting a top

aroymkp · #2 6th October 2007, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

Hi all

This thread is to express my most horrible times as a technical analyst where markets have slapped me not only once or twice but more than ten times in a row yesterday. My first impression in the morning was that markets will zoom past 18000 and all shorts will cover and we will close at about 18100 levels, than market had something else to say, it started correcting and suddenly nifty was -25 so i squared my longs on nifty, after 1 hr. nifty was up again +30 pts., i thought this was my time now sensex will breach 18000, i again went long on nifty and when i saw market 5 min. before close, i was horror struck to see nifty back in red and i had to again square my long positions and if this was no all now i see nasdaq and dow making new highs on friday night.

Must confess that since last may correction i have never been so confused predicting a top

It is difficult to predict the market - better to move alongwith it !!

prabhjeetrana · #3 6th October 2007, 11:15 AM

My prediction on nifty are now changing on daily basis but on hourly basis.
I used to think market tells its own story and i have been able to predict tops and bottom within 2 % +/- range most of the times but this time its different, i have points for both a potential rally as well as fall from cliff.
First here are points which favour rally:-
1. Nifty has broken its upper trendline of last 10 yrs. and this is usually a signal that we are entering a blow off rally
2. Market leader Reliance is looking very strong and now we have other stocks like BHEL, LT, BHARTI, SBI, REL, TATA STEEL, TATA POWER which are looking extremely strong and are not ready to give up the rally
3. US markets where all the bad news started is now starting good news campaign
4. Stupendous flow of money from FIIs which is not letting markets fall

Now here is why i think markets would fall :-

1. MACD histogram is at high not seen in last 10 yrs. which suggests that there is a lot of room on downside and that may happen soon
2. On STOCHASTICS indicator fast line has started dipping below slow line and believe me this indicator has always warned me of a top or bottom each and everytime, and right now its screaming sell.
3. Rsi is at its highest point and has stared dipping since yesterday, means even a louder scream to sell
4.Formation of a Bearish Harami Cross on friday and thursday in candle stick charts.

Now all my indicators are pointing towards sell but market is not letting up and i think as JESSE LIVERMORE said "there is time to go long, go short or go fishing" so i am going fishing because my teacher of market i.e. Technical analysis prohibits me from taking long positions now and i will wait for one more week but if market still doesnt go down, i will forget technical analysis and just start chasing the market.

Friends and members please pour in with your veiws, i am confused to brink

karthikmarar · #4 6th October 2007, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

Hi all

This thread is to express my most horrible times as a technical analyst where markets have slapped me not only once or twice but more than ten times in a row yesterday. My first impression in the morning was that markets will zoom past 18000 and all shorts will cover and we will close at about 18100 levels, than market had something else to say, it started correcting and suddenly nifty was -25 so i squared my longs on nifty, after 1 hr. nifty was up again +30 pts., i thought this was my time now sensex will breach 18000, i again went long on nifty and when i saw market 5 min. before close, i was horror struck to see nifty back in red and i had to again square my long positions and if this was no all now i see nasdaq and dow making new highs on friday night.

Must confess that since last may correction i have never been so confused predicting a top

A TA working on impressions and thoughts.....

prabhjeetrana · #5 6th October 2007, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

A TA working on impressions and thoughts.....

looking at Hang seng in the morning gave me the clue to go long, after all we are in a global rally.
After all we are mortals and not computers, right

oilman5 · #6 6th October 2007, 11:55 AM

man u r right,
monday.....i short and book loss @5080.....so trend is up......slowly i clear my position [cash].......case sp. hgher strength stock.....also resuffle ...
.....thats why volatility @new high......dont believe any indicator..........
better study historical volatility tool....it shall work next 5yr in indian market
and stock sp. case
......
best of luck
i enjoy ur honesty

Dev Mookerji · #7 6th October 2007, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

A TA working on impressions and thoughts.....

I seconed that.......

prabhjeetrana · #8 6th October 2007, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dev Mookerji

I seconed that.......

Dev as already said before i am in a dilemma and the strenghth in the markets even in overbought terittory is what is giving my thoughts precedence over my analysis.
Anyways Dev u are one of the best TA on this forum, what are your views now

prabhjeetrana · #9 6th October 2007, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilman5

man u r right,
monday.....i short and book loss @5080.....so trend is up......slowly i clear my position [cash].......case sp. hgher strength stock.....also resuffle ...
.....thats why volatility @new high......dont believe any indicator..........
better study historical volatility tool....it shall work next 5yr in indian market
and stock sp. case
......
best of luck
i enjoy ur honesty

Thanks oilman. Where can i find this '' volitality tool"

Dev Mookerji · #10 6th October 2007, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

Dev as already said before i am in a dilemma and the strenghth in the markets even in overbought terittory is what is giving my thoughts precedence over my analysis.
Anyways Dev u are one of the best TA on this forum, what are your views now

Hi,

When there is a parabolic gain better to tighten ur SL and upgrade it as required. Better to avoid shorting or fresh entry in that particular stock or market.
If one is a hard core trader and trading is his livlihood better to find out other stocks giving better opoortunities......

Its my personal view......However high value portfolios must be protected with proper hedging.....in such kinda market......

regards
dev mookerji