Most Horrible Times As A Ta

rajneesh_mailbox · #21 7th October 2007, 08:07 PM

hi,
i gained that insight with the loss of 20k partly booked by rolling over from 5000 to 5200 call. though i thought i am hedging my gain with this short option. i definitely went for intuition and suffered this . as many times repeated by joe ross trade what u see not what u believe. my market scans are screaming for shorts in a lot of scripts in f&O. candlestick formations have not given a single buy signal on friday. increased volatility after a long run up is another indication for short. but as seen index have not shown weakness till friday. i am with market for now and hedged myself with long future against sold call. though i am very bearish for now at least as this is a hysterical euphoria which has a history of hard knock , a very hard knock down. i am 80% cash now , planning for 100% within next few days and hopefully go for fishing.
one more thing though i thought many times to short all weaker stocks but market action has frightened me to keep myself out from shorting,thankful to god for this. all underdogs have also ran like anything. but now i finding many ,almost all,of them are resisting their previous top are at resistance.there may be attempts for false breakout.
so shorting for at least 2 to 3 days is a big no-no for me.for i am a very timid guy who keeps his losses as small as possible .there are a lot of crackers waiting inside the market for dushera.
sorry spoken too much
any

prabhjeetrana · #22 8th October 2007, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

Just a doubt - Didnt you advocate watching only Monthly charts on another thread here? Now you have switched to intraday trading?

Yes i still advocate monthly charts but this is what few sucessful trades can do to your trading psychology.
Actually the way i had predicted the bottom of nifty at 4000 made me hold on a little longer with my winning nifty trade and that is what actually made me a loss.

Now i think that with a slap on my short term trading mind and loosing what could have been my biggest kill in market i am left with just a little profit and a thoroughly messed up mind

Anyways i think i have still been saved a lot as i am not holding any longs today or i would have lost my complete confidence

prabhjeetrana · #23 8th October 2007, 01:31 PM

Anyways i am very happy that i have still been able to almost identify the top, though i didnt gain financially from it but some of my guilt is now gone

fire_gun · #24 13th October 2007, 07:58 PM

if any body want to make money in f&o then buy call and put with 200-250 points diffrence..mean if nifty is 5400 then buy call of 5500 and buy put of 5300 and hold it till u get 20% gain on total amount of put and call....its always works for me at least...buying in first 10 days of new expiry always remain fruitfull...its almost risky free stranggle...

Dev Mookerji · #25 14th October 2007, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fire_gun

if any body want to make money in f&o then buy call and put with 200-250 points diffrence..mean if nifty is 5400 then buy call of 5500 and buy put of 5300 and hold it till u get 20% gain on total amount of put and call....its always works for me at least...buying in first 10 days of new expiry always remain fruitfull...its almost risky free stranggle...

It may not work always...

As mentioned above u bought a put of 5300 & a call of 5500, now what will happen if nifty moves to a consolidation/sideways pattern and expires around the range of 5400, the entry level??

You will simply loose all your money in both the way.

dev mookerji

prabhjeetrana · #26 14th October 2007, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dev Mookerji

It may not work always...

As mentioned above u bought a put of 5300 & a call of 5500, now what will happen if nifty moves to a consolidation/sideways pattern and expires around the range of 5400, the entry level??

You will simply loose all your money in both the way.

dev mookerji

Dev i think the last thing that we are going to see this month is CONSOLIDATION.
We are currently in strong trending market and i can bet on this thing that we would be either higher or lower than our current levels at the end of this month

I think this guys' strategy is worth investing money on

Regards

Dev Mookerji · #27 14th October 2007, 10:33 AM

Hi prabhjeetrana,

I have said that everytime this strategy may not work. However in present market conditions everything is possible. But such type of tremendous bullishness may not be seen in near future.

regards
dev mookerji

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dev Mookerji

It may not work always...

dev mookerji

prabhjeetrana · #28 14th October 2007, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dev Mookerji

Hi prabhjeetrana,

I have said that everytime this strategy may not work. However in present market conditions everything is possible. But such type of tremendous bullishness may not be seen in near future.

regards
dev mookerji

Totally agreed

CreditViolet · #29 14th October 2007, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

Yes i still advocate monthly charts but this is what few sucessful trades can do to your trading psychology.
Actually the way i had predicted the bottom of nifty at 4000 made me hold on a little longer with my winning nifty trade and that is what actually made me a loss.

Now i think that with a slap on my short term trading mind and loosing what could have been my biggest kill in market i am left with just a little profit and a thoroughly messed up mind

Anyways i think i have still been saved a lot as i am not holding any longs today or i would have lost my complete confidence

Welcome to the world of Behavioral Economics

http://heuristics.behaviouralfinance.net/anchoring/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Full list here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

fire_gun · #30 14th October 2007, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dev Mookerji

It may not work always...

As mentioned above u bought a put of 5300 & a call of 5500, now what will happen if nifty moves to a consolidation/sideways pattern and expires around the range of 5400, the entry level??

You will simply loose all your money in both the way.

dev mookerji

well mr mookerji...yes whatever u said is right
if market moves sideways/consoildation phase..but i want to clear here the way market behaving in last 3 years...there was not a single month where we did a long consoildation phase..we corrected sharply or gone up sharply....and buying in 5-10 days of new expiry always better to be becum safe and secondly the condition u r looking for can be appilicable for american market who have small gdp subprime crisis and many other isssue which make it range bound...in india huge money is chasing so outflow and inflow is huge ...last thing i want to say to make 20% reutrn sensex should move 500-700 point swing to any side...which happening to indian market in every month...so at least at moment and at least for next 2 year this stragey worked for me from last 1 year...but one always stick to is that is not be greedy...

i always took profit whenver it hitted 20% .....