Buy GMR Infra - Future Leader

Billionaire · #1 12th August 2007, 11:43 AM

Buy GMR Infra (CMP 840) for target of 1000 by September end.

This is a great stock and will be future leader in Indian Infrastructure.

1) They will operate Delhi airport for 60 years.Right now, the Delhi airport
has aero business revenue of close to Rs 1,000 crore per year.
There will be huge increase in the non-aero businesses like car-parking,
hoardings, duty-free shops and MRO facility.
The first phase of the airport is designed to handle 37 million passengers p/a
and will be completed by 31-Mar-10,just in time for the 2010 Delhi Commonwealth Games.

2) Most successful airports that have high revenues per passenger like Frankurt at $49,
or Hong Kong with $22, due to high non-aero revenues. In contrast, Delhi has just $7 but
this could change very fast.
DIAL currently has a 35:65 non-aero to aero revenue mix. This could easily change to 60:40
from next year, going by present indications.GMR is targeting to reverse this
to 70:30 by 2010.
For instance, duty-free alone will fetch the company close to Rs 170 crore per annum over
the next three years, thanks to the duty-free contract with the Alpha-Future Group.
Compared to this, duty-free revenues were put at just Rs 27 crore last year.
In addition, the group is also looking at significant revenues from advertisement contracts within
and outside the terminal buildings while the finalisation of contract for the 4,300 car parking facility
should bring in more non-aero revenues

3) Developing land around the Delhi international airport.
They have about 200 acres available for development
and that could translate to about Rs 2 crore sq feet or 20 million sq feet.
It is very difficult to take a call, because it is ruling at around Rs 12000-15000 a square feet.
Even on a conservative basis, for Rs 1-1.5 crore sq feet the
Delhi property alone can give a valuation of Rs 10,000-12,000 crore.

4) GMR have set up a separate company called Delhi Aerotropolis Private Limited.
It has got developmental rights by the Delhi International Airport board.
This aerotropolis will be acting as a property developing company for the Delhi
Airport. Initially in the first phase, Delhi Aerotropolis Private Limited is going
to develop 45 acres of land. This has been christened as a hospitality district, for
which about 40 international and domestic bids from very top quality bidders are already received,
consisting of hospitality sector, real estate sector and the pure finds as well.
GMR is not selling this land. The company owns these 40 acres for
which they have got developmental rights. Since they do not have any experience in property development,
they are giving out these developmental rights to various bidders.
These property bids are currently being evaluated. and the entire process is likely to take another 30-45 days.
So by the end of August or middle of September, the finalisation of this would be done.

5) They are developing the Hyderabad international airport and will operate it for 60 years.
Current passenger traffic from Hyderabad is 5.7 million pa.
GMR has completed approximately 74% of construction works of the new airport.
The greenfield project, scheduled to be completed in Mar-08,
will have an initial capacity for 12 million passengers p/a.

6) In Hyderabad, they have been allotted in total 5,500 acre and have around 2,500-3,000 acre
for development after taking out 2,500 acre for airport.Two SEZs are being developed in this area.
A total developable area of about 3000 acre could translate into 300 million square feet
or maybe 200-250 million sq feet. This isroughlyvalued at about Rs 15,000-20,000 crore.
It is only through the time horizon that all of it can get capitalised or developed; it should happen
in about 3-5 years.

7) GMR Infra has won a contract to develop Istanbul international airport in Turkey.
They have a 40% share in the project and their investment will not be more than Rs 200 crore,
They will operate Istanbul for 20 years
The Istanbul Airport or Sabiha Gökçen is the second most important airport in Istanbul and has 3.5million capacity already.
It earned revenues close to about 88 million euros(490 crores) last year and has been growing at
around 45-50% for the last two years.
Ataturk, Istanbul’s main airport, is already having more than 21 million passengers as
against a capacity of 20 million passengers.
GMR,Limac and Malaysian Airport consortium will takeover the airport in the next three months(by November or December).
Since it is a brownfield airport, the revenues will
get accrued from the very first day onwards.
The revenues from the Turkish airport project may be reflected in FY08 financials.

8) GMR Group has bagged the Rs 500-crore project for development of the multi-product SEZ at Hosur in the bidding
called for by the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (Tidco).
The SEZ is expected to come up in area of 3300 acres.SEZ location is at Krishnagiri district,
about 90 km from the New Bangalore International Airport coming up at Devanahalli.

9) Developing a 1,000 mw-power project in Orissa and have already signed an MoU for another 1,000 mw power project
in Chattisgarh. Also developing another two hydro projects in Arunachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.
They are looking for more power generation projects, where there are 14-16% returns and they will be going on the BoT.

10) GMR has the first right of refusal to develop the airport in Greater Noida.
The proposed airport in Greater Noida near Delhi would be spread over 1,500 hectares and a private developer
would hold a 74 per cent stake in it,the Uttar Pradesh government through a sponsor will hold 13 per cent and the
Airports Authority of India (AAI) another 13 per cent.
GMR can get to develop the Noida airport as well if its bid is not below 90 per cent of
the highest bidder for the airport.
The proposed site, is located at Zewar,nearly 72 km from Delhi and 120 km from Agra.
They are also eyeing the other airports in India as well as abroad.

11) Stock split of 5:1 to happen by August end.
This is another bullish factor.

Billionaire · #2 12th August 2007, 11:59 AM

Just read the below facts and see the potential of GMR:
They will operate Delhi airport for 60 years.Right now, the Delhi airport
has aero business revenue of close to Rs 1,000 crore per year.
There will be huge increase in the non-aero businesses like car-parking,
hoardings, duty-free shops and MRO facility.
The first phase of the airport is designed to handle 37 million passengers p/a
and will be completed by 31-Mar-10,just in time for the 2010 Delhi Commonwealth Games.

Most successful airports that have high revenues per passenger like Frankurt at $49,
or Hong Kong with $22, due to high non-aero revenues. In contrast, Delhi has just $7 but
this could change very fast.
DIAL currently has a 35:65 non-aero to aero revenue mix. This could easily change to 60:40
from next year, going by present indications.GMR is targeting to reverse this
to 70:30 by 2010.
For instance, duty-free alone will fetch the company close to Rs 170 crore per annum over
the next three years, thanks to the duty-free contract with the Alpha-Future Group.
Compared to this, duty-free revenues were put at just Rs 27 crore last year.
In addition, the group is also looking at significant revenues from advertisement contracts within
and outside the terminal buildings while the finalisation of contract for the 4,300 car parking facility
should bring in more non-aero revenues

Developing land around the Delhi international airport.
They have about 200 acres available for development
and that could translate to about Rs 2 crore sq feet or 20 million sq feet.
It is very difficult to take a call, because it is ruling at around Rs 12000-15000 a square feet.
Even on a conservative basis, for Rs 1-1.5 crore sq feet the
Delhi property alone can give a valuation of Rs 10,000-12,000 crore.

GMR have set up a separate company called Delhi Aerotropolis Private Limited.
It has got developmental rights by the Delhi International Airport board.
This aerotropolis will be acting as a property developing company for the Delhi
Airport. Initially in the first phase, Delhi Aerotropolis Private Limited is going
to develop 45 acres of land. This has been christened as a hospitality district, for
which about 40 international and domestic bids from very top quality bidders are already received,
consisting of hospitality sector, real estate sector and the pure finds as well.
GMR is not selling this land. The company owns these 40 acres for
which they have got developmental rights. Since they do not have any experience in property development,
they are giving out these developmental rights to various bidders.
These property bids are currently being evaluated. and the entire process is likely to take another 30-45 days.
So by the end of August or middle of September, the finalisation of this would be done.

They are developing the Hyderabad international airport and will operate it for 60 years.
Current passenger traffic from Hyderabad is 5.7 million pa.
GMR has completed approximately 74% of construction works of the new airport.
The greenfield project, scheduled to be completed in Mar-08,
will have an initial capacity for 12 million passengers p/a.

In Hyderabad, they have been allotted in total 5,500 acre and have around 2,500-3,000 acre
for development after taking out 2,500 acre for airport.Two SEZs are being developed in this area.
A total developable area of about 3000 acre could translate into 300 million square feet
or maybe 200-250 million sq feet. This isroughlyvalued at about Rs 15,000-20,000 crore.
It is only through the time horizon that all of it can get capitalised or developed; it should happen
in about 3-5 years.

GMR Infra has won a contract to develop Istanbul international airport in Turkey.
They have a 40% share in the project and their investment will not be more than Rs 200 crore,
They will operate Istanbul for 20 years
The Istanbul Airport or Sabiha Gökçen is the second most important airport in Istanbul and has 3.5million capacity already.
It earned revenues close to about 88 million euros(490 crores) last year and has been growing at
around 45-50% for the last two years.
Ataturk, Istanbul’s main airport, is already having more than 21 million passengers as
against a capacity of 20 million passengers.
GMR,Limac and Malaysian Airport consortium will takeover the airport in the next three months(by November or December).
Since it is a brownfield airport, the revenues will
get accrued from the very first day onwards.
The revenues from the Turkish airport project may be reflected in FY08 financials.

GMR Group has bagged the Rs 500-crore project for development of the multi-product SEZ at Hosur in the bidding
called for by the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (Tidco).
The SEZ is expected to come up in area of 3300 acres.SEZ location is at Krishnagiri district,
about 90 km from the New Bangalore International Airport coming up at Devanahalli.

Developing a 1,000 mw-power project in Orissa and have already signed an MoU for another 1,000 mw power project
in Chattisgarh. Also developing another two hydro projects in Arunachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.
They are looking for more power generation projects, where there are 14-16% returns and they will be going on the BoT.

GMR has the first right of refusal to develop the airport in Greater Noida.
The proposed airport in Greater Noida near Delhi would be spread over 1,500 hectares and a private developer
would hold a 74 per cent stake in it,the Uttar Pradesh government through a sponsor will hold 13 per cent and the
Airports Authority of India (AAI) another 13 per cent.
GMR can get to develop the Noida airport as well if its bid is not below 90 per cent of
the highest bidder for the airport.
The proposed site, is located at Zewar,nearly 72 km from Delhi and 120 km from Agra.
They are also eyeing the other airports in India as well as abroad.

Stock split of 5:1 to happen by August end/September middle.
This is another bullish factor.

Billionaire · #3 12th August 2007, 12:07 PM

Couple of things:
I can rate my own thread.

I rated 5 star and it came up as 3 star

I have replied to my thread and a message came up saying that the moderator has to approve the message.Is it same for all or only for newbies?

jnj333 · #4 12th August 2007, 12:12 PM

Very Good detailed review, yes GMR is a good stock to hold or to be bought at every dips. 1 year target seems to be around 2500.

prabhjeetrana · #5 12th August 2007, 01:29 PM

Mr. Billionaire i totally agree with the wonderful fundamental analysis that you have done for GMR INFRA. but there's a popular saying on the wall street that good prospects for a company doesn't always mean good returns for investors.
Secondly, i am not sure that whether we can trust GMR INFRA to go higher until it is able to take the 1050 resistance.
I think that as technical analysts we should wait for markets to show us the trend,but gmr is just showing kind of a voilent consolidation between 750 - 900 range i think we should wait for it to come out of that range

sagi.thediceman · #6 12th August 2007, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabhjeetrana

Mr. Billionaire i totally agree with the wonderful fundamental analysis that you have done for GMR INFRA. but there's a popular saying on the wall street that good prospects for a company doesn't always mean good returns for investors.
Secondly, i am not sure that whether we can trust GMR INFRA to go higher until it is able to take the 1050 resistance.
I think that as technical analysts we should wait for markets to show us the trend,but gmr is just showing kind of a voilent consolidation between 750 - 900 range i think we should wait for it to come out of that range

HI

One should wait for it to go down to 659 , to take a decision to buy.

sagi

Billionaire · #7 13th August 2007, 07:07 PM

659 ...............

Quote:

Originally Posted by sagi.thediceman

HI

One should wait for it to go down to 659 , to take a decision to buy.

sagi

judemit · #8 13th August 2007, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sagi.thediceman

HI

One should wait for it to go down to 659 , to take a decision to buy.

sagi

Hi Sagi,
Do you expect GMR to drop to 659 levels? If yes what is the time frame you are looking for?

prabhjeetrana · #9 14th August 2007, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sagi.thediceman

HI

One should wait for it to go down to 659 , to take a decision to buy.

sagi

sagi i am not sure i would be buying GMR at 650 levels. basically i am a trend follower and close above 900 will give me an entry signal and below 750 would mean exit for me
i dont try and catch falling knives

hiteshdaga · #10 14th August 2007, 05:28 PM

Any 2 day Close below 747 can send the stock down by nearly 250 Rs (1005-747) !!!!
So Buy with S/L of 747 2-day close!

But at the same time, all the projects will materialise only in the long term. Till then the good news is already factored in.

Any bad news will send the stock hammering down !

Secondly, I do not believe that splitting the stock is any bullish sign. Its just a book entry to create more liquidity in the stock. (actully for operators to transfer the high priced stocks to retailers) ( BE careful.. See Divis . Its down after stock Split !) (remember Siemens !)

Same cud be with GMR ! More liquidity means tough to drive prices higher. Thats why a stock price above 5000 can easily move to 7000 before coming to 3500 but the same stock price @ 200 would take more time to move to 240 !

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