Stock Picks Of The Day

ravikrai · #1 31st July 2007, 06:46 PM

Gentlemen , I m back. Today onwards i will be again posting you the daily picks. Do keep a track. These will be consolidated from, sharekhan, religare and poweryour trade. Thanks Have a nice day.

ravikrai · #2 31st July 2007, 06:47 PM

State Bank of India
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,780
Current market price: Rs1,579
Strong operating performance
Result highlights
• State Bank of India’s (SBI) results have been way above the market’s and our expectations with the profit after tax (PAT) growing by 78.5% year on year (yoy) to Rs1,425.8 crore compared with our estimate of Rs1,147 crore. The results are significantly above estimates due to a higher than expected write-back in investment provisions and subdued operating expenses.
• The net interest income (NII) was up by 15% yoy to Rs4,497 crore. The reported net interest margin (NIM) remained more or less stable on a sequential basis but declined by six basis points yoy. Most of the public sector banks have reported a sequential decline in margins whereas SBI has maintained its NIM and grown its NII by 15.8% yoy which are commendable.
• The non-interest income grew by 18.7% yoy to Rs842.6 crore driven by good growth in the core fee income, which rose by 16.3% yoy, and a higher trading income, which increased by 30.5% yoy due to the gains recorded in the National Stock Exchange stake sale for around Rs150 crore. “Others” reflect a net negative figure due to amortisation expenses and one-time shifting losses booked through the non-interest income category as per new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) directives.
• The operating expenses grew by only 5.8% yoy to Rs2,978.5 crore mainly due to lower staff expenses, which grew by 5.3% yoy and remained almost unchanged on a sequential basis at Rs2,026.4 crore. A good net income growth of 15.6% yoy coupled with lower operating expenses helped the operating profit to increase by 30.8% to Rs2,361.5 crore. The core operating profit growth was at 15.8% yoy to Rs2,691.5 crore.
• Provisions declined by 36.4% yoy mainly due to a write-back in investments provisions for Rs376 crore. The bank made a Rs200-crore non-performing asset (NPA) provision during the quarter over and above the RBI’s requirements, which helped it to improve the provision coverage by 140 basis points to 48.8% on a sequential basis.
• Business growth was strong with net advances up 29.3% yoy and deposits higher by 19% yoy. However, the asset quality showed deterioration with the gross NPA up by Rs760 crore in absolute terms and the net NPA up from 1.56% in Q4FY2007 to 1.62% in percentage terms.
• The operating performance has been strong with stable margins and robust business growth. However the margins are likely to be under pressure going forward as the bank has a net effective negative spread on the combined statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and cash reserve ratio (CRR) book. On the other hand, it has reduced its interest rate risk significantly, with only 24% of its investment book under the marked-to-market category with a duration of 1.7 years. A lower provision coverage and the non-provision of transitional Accounting Standard (AS)-15 expenses (as it awaits the RBI’s guidelines on this front) are the only concerns. Hence, we have not upgraded our numbers as we feel the AS-15 related provisions could restrict the earnings growth of the bank in FY2008 despite earnings being significantly above estimates. At the current market price of Rs1,579, the stock is quoting at 14.4x its FY2009E earnings, 5.9x pre-provision profits and, 1.9x stand-alone and 1.5x consolidated FY2009E book value. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs1,780.

zeekid · #3 31st July 2007, 08:36 PM

Hello Sir,

What is the period to hold for meeting targets?

Nitesh

ravikrai · #4 1st August 2007, 01:20 PM

Hi friend
It may take a couple of months. these targets are for six months. I will give short term targets in blue color, longterm in red color.

ravikrai · #5 1st August 2007, 01:21 PM

Madras Cement
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs3,700
Current market price: Rs3,328
Price target revised to Rs3,700
Result highlights
• In Q1FY2008, Madras Cements' top line grew by 37.7% year on year (yoy) to Rs469 crore on the back of a 5.8% growth in volumes and a 30% rise in realisations. The rise in realisation was because of a Rs10-15 increase in the price per bag of cement in May and June in the south.
• The operating expenditure rose sharply by 40% yoy to Rs286.6 crore on account of higher freight cost and higher employee expenditure. The costs per tonne grew by 32% yoy to Rs1,976 because of a 26% increase in the variable costs.
• The operating profit margin on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis was lower by 100 basis points at 39.5% whereas on a sequential basis, it was higher by 830 basis points on account of a higher realisation growth. The higher realisations also helped the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne to grow by 26% yoy to Rs1,260.
• During the quarter, the interest cost doubled to Rs8 crore, thanks to higher borrowings, whereas the depreciation provision grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs23.9 crore.
• Consequently, the profit after tax (PAT) grew by 27.5% yoy to Rs100.5 crore, which was in line with our expectations.
• The company is incurring a capital expenditure (capex) of Rs1,474 crore to expand its capacity by 4 million metric tonne (MMT) in the next one year. The 2MMT expansion at Jayantipuram (including a 1MMT grinding unit at Kolkata) will be commissioned by the third quarter of FY2008, whereas the remaining 2MMT capacity at Ariyalur including an additional 56 megawatt (MW) wind power plant will be commissioned by the second quarter of FY2009.
• Taking cognisance of the higher volume growth and the improved pricing scenario after the price freeze, we are upgrading our FY2008 earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 18% to Rs368 per share and FY2009 EPS estimate by 23% to Rs443.
• The higher capacities will drive the volume growth of the company going forward whereas the improved pricing scenario will improve its profits. The captive power plants (CPPs) will help lower the power & fuel cost. The company will be able to save income tax in FY2009 to the extent of the accelerated depreciation available on wind power plants, which will positively increase the cash flows of the company. At the current market price (CMP) of Rs3,328,the stock is trading at a valuation of 7.5x its FY2009 earnings which almost captures the near-term opportunity. Thus we maintain our Buy recommendation with a revised price target of Rs3,700.

ravikrai · #6 1st August 2007, 01:22 PM

Subros

Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs340
Current market price: Rs238
Strong performance
Result highlights
• Subros' Q1FY2008 results are above our expectations, thanks to a strong improvement in its profitability. The net sales of the company grew by 11.4% to Rs157.7 crore in the quarter led by a volume growth of 17%. The strong performance of one of its key customers, Maruti Suzuki India, particularly contributed to Subros' impressive performance.
• The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by a good 150 basis points to 12.2% during the quarter due to rising efficiencies and savings in logistic cost as a result of better operations from its newly commissioned Gurgaon plant. Consequently, the operating profit for the quarter grew by 26.1% to Rs19.2 crore.
• Both interest and depreciation charges were higher due to the capital expenditure (capex) incurred by the company for the new plant and efforts to raise its capacity further. Consequently, the company reported a 10.1% growth in its net profit to Rs6.6 crore.
• We maintain our positive outlook on Subros. We also understand that the company has recently bagged a huge order from Suzuki for the export vehicle that shall be manufactured from the Japanese company's Manesar plant. Also, the company shall be supplying to Mahindra and Mahindra for the latter's yet to be launched Ingenio range.
• At the current levels, the stock is available at attractive valuations of 5.3x FY2009E earnings and an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 2.5x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs340.

ravikrai · #7 1st August 2007, 01:25 PM

Omax Autos

Recommendation: Book Out
Current market price: Rs71.5
Book out
Result highlights
• Omax Auto's Q1FY2008 results were better than our expectations due to a higher than estimated top line and stable margins during the quarter.
• The net sales of the company grew by a good 7.5% to Rs172.3 crore in the quarter, led by an 8.3% growth in the domestic sales to Rs165 crore. The exports for the quarter were disappointing at Rs7.3 crore against Rs8 crore in the same quarter last year.
• The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter declined by 80 basis points year on year (yoy) and was flat sequentially at 9%. Consequently, the operating profit declined by a marginal 0.7% to Rs15.6 crore.
• A higher capital expenditure (capex) led to an increase in both the interest and the depreciation cost. This led to a 29.3% decline in the profit to Rs4 crore.
• Omax Auto has rendered a mixed performance in the past few quarters. Though its margins have improved a bit, the company has fallen short of meeting its export targets. The entry into the business of components for commercial vehicles would de-risk its business model a little. However, we expect the company to face the heat in the domestic market due to a slowdown in the two-wheeler industry. Moreover, the cut-throat competition in the ancillary industry might restrict the margin growth for Omax Auto. We thus expect FY2008 to be weak for Omax Auto, both in terms of top line and bottom line growth.
• We expect the company to report a 27.6% decline in its earnings in FY2008 but recover in FY2009, with better two-wheeler volumes as well as the commencement of supplies to Tata Motors. We expect its earnings per share to reach Rs11.3 in FY2009. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 6.3x its FY2009E earnings and is available at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 4x. Considering the slowdown in domestic market in FY2008, slower offtake in its exports and restricted margins, we are closing our recommendation on the stock. We recommend investors to book out.

hemanth1312 · #8 1st August 2007, 01:33 PM

Hello All

I am new to this forum , hope you all help each other for sucess to all

biyasc · #9 1st August 2007, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravikrai

State Bank of India
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,780
Current market price: Rs1,579
Strong operating performance
Result highlights
• State Bank of India’s (SBI) results have been way above the market’s and our expectations with the profit after tax (PAT) growing by 78.5% year on year (yoy) to Rs1,425.8 crore compared with our estimate of Rs1,147 crore. The results are significantly above estimates due to a higher than expected write-back in investment provisions and subdued operating expenses.
• The net interest income (NII) was up by 15% yoy to Rs4,497 crore. The reported net interest margin (NIM) remained more or less stable on a sequential basis but declined by six basis points yoy. Most of the public sector banks have reported a sequential decline in margins whereas SBI has maintained its NIM and grown its NII by 15.8% yoy which are commendable.
• The non-interest income grew by 18.7% yoy to Rs842.6 crore driven by good growth in the core fee income, which rose by 16.3% yoy, and a higher trading income, which increased by 30.5% yoy due to the gains recorded in the National Stock Exchange stake sale for around Rs150 crore. “Others” reflect a net negative figure due to amortisation expenses and one-time shifting losses booked through the non-interest income category as per new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) directives.
• The operating expenses grew by only 5.8% yoy to Rs2,978.5 crore mainly due to lower staff expenses, which grew by 5.3% yoy and remained almost unchanged on a sequential basis at Rs2,026.4 crore. A good net income growth of 15.6% yoy coupled with lower operating expenses helped the operating profit to increase by 30.8% to Rs2,361.5 crore. The core operating profit growth was at 15.8% yoy to Rs2,691.5 crore.
• Provisions declined by 36.4% yoy mainly due to a write-back in investments provisions for Rs376 crore. The bank made a Rs200-crore non-performing asset (NPA) provision during the quarter over and above the RBI’s requirements, which helped it to improve the provision coverage by 140 basis points to 48.8% on a sequential basis.
• Business growth was strong with net advances up 29.3% yoy and deposits higher by 19% yoy. However, the asset quality showed deterioration with the gross NPA up by Rs760 crore in absolute terms and the net NPA up from 1.56% in Q4FY2007 to 1.62% in percentage terms.
• The operating performance has been strong with stable margins and robust business growth. However the margins are likely to be under pressure going forward as the bank has a net effective negative spread on the combined statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and cash reserve ratio (CRR) book. On the other hand, it has reduced its interest rate risk significantly, with only 24% of its investment book under the marked-to-market category with a duration of 1.7 years. A lower provision coverage and the non-provision of transitional Accounting Standard (AS)-15 expenses (as it awaits the RBI’s guidelines on this front) are the only concerns. Hence, we have not upgraded our numbers as we feel the AS-15 related provisions could restrict the earnings growth of the bank in FY2008 despite earnings being significantly above estimates. At the current market price of Rs1,579, the stock is quoting at 14.4x its FY2009E earnings, 5.9x pre-provision profits and, 1.9x stand-alone and 1.5x consolidated FY2009E book value. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs1,780.

is it sharekhan recommendation?

ravikrai · #10 1st August 2007, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by biyasc

is it sharekhan recommendation?

Yes. I keep on giving tips from share khan and also from power your trade. These tips have been given to the forum after analysis.

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