Trading Nifty

Watching your plan,OK still now except the Pattern faliure.

Dear Ashish,

Patterns can indeed change. That is why we had to hedge in the first place. I have the necessary back up to deal with it. I was sure nifty would go up and it has already hit 4335. The only thing that i had done was stretched my resources a bit into what i may say is a minor danger zone, when i do not have enough funds to use a future as a hedge and instead have to resort to use of options (which i do not normally favour).


With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

That was 4335 in future august series

Dear Friends,

Let me stick my long neck out again for the chopping block.

This is a prediction for the month of August.

Nifty shall touch 4500 at least once this month (it could be towards the end of the month or it could be earlier, i would not commit on that).

Of course before that happens, market could see another bout of selling, so one needs to be prepared.

With best wishes,

Gaurav Kumar

Mkt going OK still now ,as per your plan.

Dear Gaurav,

Thank you for guidance. I would like to use your valuable advise in successfully closign my future position so that I could gain some thing monetary as weel as knowledge. After closing of market, I will inform you my left over position and would earnestly expect some advise before opening of market next day about market pattern and strategy for my holding positions. Just for the shake of sharing information, I am trading in F&O since one year but even after gain say 1.5 lacs I have lost the amount by taking wrong position. Like in falling market having buy position and short position while market was on uptrend.


I have closed my Future Sept short position at 4335 at a loss of 70 points.

Now, by closing of today market I have following positions:


Nifty long - August - 4490 and 4375
Call 4500 August at 69

You have mentioned somewhere in your message that you use put option for hedging, if required. What you would gain in hedging through put option instead of shorting future position.

Thanks & Regards

Ranjeet

Dear Ranjeet,

Before i go about advising you further please note a few things for your benefit as well as ensuring a smooth understanding between us.

1. A successful investor in my view has to conquer both fear and greed.
2. A successful investor is one who is sure of his analysis and also is fully prepared to handle the situation if things go wrong.

Let us do some critical analysis.

In the first few minutes of trade today, nifty was well below 4300 levels. That should have presented you with an ideal opportunity to exit the short position. With a little bit of luck you may not have suffered a loss at all.

However, assuming you were watching the market, it is most likely that the opening fall would have trigerred fear in you that the market would fall further and you kept on waiting, till you became more confident and then exited at 4335.

Your reactions were perfectly normal. I empathise with you because till a year back, i would have done the same had i been in your position. Typically i used to exit a loss making long position at its low when i used to panic. What i have learnt is to control panic. You need to do the same.

In my own personal position , i did not panic as i was fully sure that nifty would rise. and of course it did.

As i have said earlier, i would need to know the full extend of your financial position before being able to guide you out. Also, when in a mess, one should be able to use all oppotunities to make money. Since i am not always writing here during trading hours you are loosing opportunities.
As an example, had you been on telephonic contact, i would have told you to exit when the market was below 4300 level itself. Trust me there was no fear today of the market falling (that should be evident from my posts that i was 100% confident of that)

If you trust my capabilities to bail you out, you need to be available on phone to me. In that case, i may be able to really help you out. You may send me your contact details through the private message.

Till then i will continue with the daily posts. Wait for tomorrow's posts. I will try my best to help you.

With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

Dear Friends,

As expected Nifty went up today, though it did open weak.
The unfortunate part is that nifty did not break past a resistance and lost part of the gains. Yet we are in a better position compared to before.

Today we did have great opportunities to buy, but since the funds mentioned in this thread (Rs.75000/-) do not permit to do so with two outsanding long positions, i am not taking that into account.

Current positions are as below

1.Nifty purchased at 4530 on 23/7/07 , current price 4317, M to M = -10650
2. Nifty purchased at 4410 on 30/07/07, sold on 31/7/07 at 4460, Net profit = 2500.
3. Nifty Sept series shorted at 4440 on 31/07/07, covered on 1/08/07 at 4340, Net profit = 5000/-
4. Nifty August series Long at 4330 on 1/8/07, Current price = 4317, M to M = - 650

Booked profit = 7500/- M to M loss 11300/- Net postion is Minus 3800/-

We still expect nifty to move up tomorrow, though we need to be careful of where nifty closes. So we may be forced to book profit in the nifty position taken at 4330 earlier than planned. things would become clearer once i analyse the hitch, that i think is possibly there.

Next post in the morning

With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

Next post tomorrow morning.

Mr Gaurav Kumar,

I Really Appreciate Your Confidance And Clarity.

Mr.Kumar,
Would it be correct to say that all the decisions are taken after a level is reached, nothing is predecided.
We donot know at what juncture would we be asked to book profits, at what level we have to take a hedge position and what that hedge position would be?
We shall have to wait for your REAL TIME guidance to take these actions!!
Regards