Share Success

Buy Borax Morarji on close above 55.2
Targets - 60 / 65.
Stop loss - closing below 48.

Success,
Yasir

Hey Yasir
Good to see a call from you finally.
Hope to see more in the future.
Cheers
Jat

Thanks Jat,

Please check my other threads - Asian Oilfield Services and Trigyn.

I wanted to post all my calls under this thread - Share Success but I realize now, it will be a little difficult to manage all the different calls under 1 thread.

So, once the Borax call is closed, I may close this thread or maybe just keep it for sharing my portfolio with the board.

Cheers,
Yasir.

Find all my calls consolidated on this thread!

The sales of LML has been falling in excess of 40% for the past 4 years.
This has translated into net loss which has been mounting steadily.

It is quite alarming to note that from a net loss of around 40 crores in 2001, the company has declared a net loss of almost 250 crores in 2006.

The book value is a negative 21.54 per share.
This means that even after the company sells off all its assets including plant, building, machinery and called in all their loans, even then they would not have enough money to pay off their creditors let alone have anything left for the equity share holders.

I have not been able to find the results for the latest quarter ended June 2007. I don't think they have been declared yet.

The 18 month period ending 2007 are thus:
Total Income - 24 crores.
Net loss - 203.32 crores.

This appears to be somewhat positive as the loss has reduced by about 50 crores between 2006 and 2007 but if you look at the income, it also has reduced from 40 crores to 24 crores. They are selling even less bikes than they had the previous year.

Basically I think this is a lost cause at least for the time being.
Unless the company can re-invent itself or pull off some stunning turnaround, it doenst make sense holding the shares of LML.

Technically,
After a fall from 16.25 to 11, the stock could bounce back to 12 - 12.5 but this seems short lived.
The current support level of 11 is a precarious one and once broken, the stock could fall to below 9.

I would recommend that if you are holding, cut your losses and get out.

On the other hand, if you are looking at entering this stock, I wouldn't recommend it in the light of the facts as we currently know them.

Peace,
Yasir

XL Telecom

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Friends,

Since year ending June 2002 until the present, the total income has grown more than 10 times and so has the net profit.

The company seems to follow a June year ending as the annual results for the past 5 years published on moneycontrol are year ending June.

Over the past 3 years, the sales and profit have grown in excess of 35% per annum.
The results for the quarter ending june 2007 have not been published yet.

I have the results for the previous 3 quarters. The total income comes to 386.58. Annualizing this, we get 515.44. Compared to total income of the previous year which was 410. 84, this comes to 25.46%
The net profit for the previous 3 quarters comes to 15.53. Annualizing this, we get 20.71 crores. Compared to net profit of previous year which was 10.67, this comes to a growth of 94.06%.

A look at the quarterly figures shows us that there has been consistent growth even quarter on quarter.
Hence the above annualizing of the total income and net profit can be considered a conservative estimate.

This means that we are potentially looking at an increase of 100% year on year.

I believe this stock XL Telecom also has the capacity to return more than double your investment.

Technically, the stock is in a short term down trend and should find support at 118. If it falls further, then it is a golden opportunity to buy low.

At this point, I would only recommend an investment with a long term point of view. Buy not more than half of the quantity you wish to hold.

On the upside, crucial levels are 132 and 144. A close above 132 is positive and you can add to the stock then. On a close above 132, the short term target would be 144. A close above 144 gives us targets of 156 and 216.

Fundamentally also, as discussed above, the stock has the potential to more than double from current levels. A target in excess of its all time high of 216 is achievable in the long term

Success,
Yasir

Re: Trigyn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by yasirsait
Buy for targets of 35 / 42.

After making a high of 40.70, the stock has closed at 35.20 today.

The stock is again on an upmove, investors can continue to hold.

The first resistance from here is 40.70 above which 42 can be quite easily reached.

Wait for a closing above 42.5. If this happens, continue to hold for 49 else, exit part position at 42 to reenter at lower levels.

Success,
Yasir

N.B. I do not hold a position in this stock but intend to go long above 42.

Asian Oilfield Services

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To start off with, this stock is in the drilling sector which is one of the current flavors of the market.

Asian Oilfield Services:
Year ending March '05 saw Total Income of 7.96 crores which translated into net profit of 0.32 crores.
March '06 - total income 10.40 crores and Net profit 0.62 crores.
This is a growth in income of 30.65% and in net profit of 93.75 crores.
Year end March '07:
Total Income - 27.69 crores - growth of 166.25% over last year.
Net profit - 4.58 crores - growth of 638%.

Since the past 3 months, the stock has gone from a low of around Rs. 40 to a high of 116. This is a movement of about close to 200%. However, I believe the stocks is nowhere near its true value and the best is yet to be seen.

Technically the stock made an all time high 119.25 but failed to close above the previous high of 116.25 which could act as resistance. The stock however, has moved up on 20/07/2007 on good volumes and hence the resistance of 116.25 should be surpassed easily and move on to a target of 140.

On a close above 116.25, buy for a target of 140.
On a fundamental basis, the longer term target would be in excess of 200.

Regards,
Yasir.

N.B. I do not hold any position in this stock at present but intend to buy on 23/07/2007.

Lightbulb Lml
The sales of LML has been falling in excess of 40% for the past 4 years.
This has translated into net loss which has been mounting steadily.

It is quite alarming to note that from a net loss of around 40 crores in 2001, the company has declared a net loss of almost 250 crores in 2006.

The book value is a negative 21.54 per share.
This means that even after the company sells off all its assets including plant, building, machinery and called in all their loans, even then they would not have enough money to pay off their creditors let alone have anything left for the equity share holders.

I have not been able to find the results for the latest quarter ended June 2007. I don't think they have been declared yet.

The 18 month period ending 2007 are thus:
Total Income - 24 crores.
Net loss - 203.32 crores.

This appears to be somewhat positive as the loss has reduced by about 50 crores between 2006 and 2007 but if you look at the income, it also has reduced from 40 crores to 24 crores. They are selling even less bikes than they had the previous year.

Basically I think this is a lost cause at least for the time being.
Unless the company can re-invent itself or pull off some stunning turnaround, it doenst make sense holding the shares of LML.

Technically,
After a fall from 16.25 to 11, the stock could bounce back to 12 - 12.5 but this seems short lived.
The current support level of 11 is a precarious one and once broken, the stock could fall to below 9.

I would recommend that if you are holding, cut your losses and get out.

On the other hand, if you are looking at entering this stock, I wouldn't recommend it in the light of the facts as we currently know them.

Peace,
Yasir

Lightbulb Re: Trigyn
Quote:
Originally Posted by yasirsait View Post
Buy for targets of 35 / 42.
After making a high of 40.70, the stock has closed at 35.20 today.

The stock is again on an upmove, investors can continue to hold.

The first resistance from here is 40.70 above which 42 can be quite easily reached.

Wait for a closing above 42.5. If this happens, continue to hold for 49 else, exit part position at 42 to reenter at lower levels.

Success,
Yasir