Technical Indicators Do they Assist ?

uasish · #1 17th June 2007, 08:49 PM

This forum members ,including self ,seems to face a subtle change ; a new conceptual change ;in a Neo / Ultrarian 'Thought Wave'
1) As price outcome is Random ,hence TA has no effective role to guide future price direction.
2) Hence let us transgress to a 'Statistical Module' than technical indicator based module.
Let us participate in a healthy discussion on this to clear my & our mind from this confused state.I am just kick starting this in this thread.Ppl who are really honest to thy plz participate to clear our confusion,honestly we are here to develop ourselves ,so that our Equity curve is healthy than to 'Show Off' how knowledgeable one is,it will not help to pay our monthly bills.You/i/we may be a Gr8 knowledgebable guy ,USELESS,if not translated in MONEY.
There is also another growing feeling/understanding that we will have to Uplift ourselves to 'System based Trading',which majority of us agree more or less.
Hence to make an effective System we have to address the above Dialectical contradiction.
Just to bring to your notice that even a system can be devised ;not on TA or Statistics but on 'Lunar Cycle" ,the chart attached for your perusal.

NB: There is a typo(error) in the name of this thread it should be Do instead of Due.

Dev Mookerji · #2 17th June 2007, 09:00 PM

Asishda,

I never used the indicators, shown in the attached image. But I have heard about the effect of lunar cycle.

Idea of 14 days indicator (RSI/ADX as such), has came from there only....

dev mookerji

oxusmorouz · #3 17th June 2007, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

This forum members ,including self ,seems to face a subtle change ; a new conceptual change ;in a Neo / Ultrarian 'Thought Wave'
1) As price outcome is Random ,hence TA has no effective role to guide future price direction.
2) Hence let us transgress to a 'Statistical Module' than technical indicator based module.
Let us participate in a healthy discussion on this to clear my & our mind from this confused state.I am just kick starting this in this thread.Ppl who are really honest to thy plz participate to clear our confusion,honestly we are here to develop ourselves ,so that our Equity curve is healthy than to 'Show Off' how knowledgeable one is,it will not help to pay our monthly bills.You/i/we may be a Gr8 knowledgebable guy ,USELESS,if not translated in MONEY.
There is also another growing feeling/understanding that we will have to Uplift ourselves to 'System based Trading',which majority of us agree more or less.
Hence to make an effective System we have to address the above Dialectical contradiction.
Just to bring to your notice that even a system can be devised ;not on TA or Statistics but on 'Lunar Cycle" ,the chart attached for your perusal.

I don't know much about the effect of lunar cycle but can you please post more evidence to support the same? Considering that the nifty was in a unidirectional run in more than 75% of the chart, I do believe there is a chance of the study being biased.

uasish · #4 17th June 2007, 09:56 PM

Ajay,
Yet to test ,based on Full Moon / New Moon ,an indicator was made were say x= full moon & up days= C > ref(c,-1) & Stat:= if (stat=1,up,0) ; & stas % := cum(xand stat)/
max(cum (x),1)*100
And it was named Lunar Cycle (Defense Stas) .
This was made just to drive home a point is TA or Statistics or any thing ,even Lunar cycle.
Asish

uasish · #5 17th June 2007, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEV MUKHERJEE

Asishda,

I never used the indicators, shown in the attached image. But I have heard about the effect of lunar cycle.

Idea of 14 days indicator (RSI/ADX as such), has came from there only....

dev mookerji

Full moon or New moon ,Hizri calendar of Muslims, are or where never 14 days STATIC.

Ajax · #6 17th June 2007, 10:10 PM

Dear uashish

All indicators are derivatives of price & volume. Once u are experienced enough to evaluate price action only , the indicators will loose their relevance.

Another thing, we keep talking of risk/ rewards ratio..
Give a thought to " reward/ effort ratio"...
By using/analysing indicators etc we may be putting in that extra effort that may not add incremental valve to decision making.

I will shortly post a review of my postion in a scrip based on price action alone. Presently back testing it with various indicators to see if it could have
yielded better results.

And yes, lunar cycles do have a effect. I am forgetting the name of a person who made a fortune by trading only following lunar cycles..
ANy way just observe Nifty movement around new moon & full moon day

Regards Ajax

PS> My posts in KISS like McGrath are purely based on price action only

uasish · #7 17th June 2007, 11:13 PM

This is a Back test done Only in Metastock with just Indicators,just to test the System (by saving as template) on a Portfolio of say := all Future Near Months.
Once again let me highlight ,this is just to point out , whether TA ? Statistical Module ? or any thing lunatic ? like a Full Moon Buy & New Moon Liquidation.
However in this period a simple Buy & Roll over continuously would have given 37 % Profit.
Though the Docile Annualized Profit & further deducting the Max Drawdown may look insignificant but
1) No Stop Loss used;
2) A Lot of say 100 In Nifty = 4 .00 Lack avg & Profit % of say 10% on that= 40000.00

Capital reqd = 40000.00 & provision for Drawback say another 20000.00 ,so Total trading capital of 60k brings 40k ,now think of the profit %.

oilman5 · #8 17th June 2007, 11:13 PM

when uasish speaks its nothing but facts...
as a trader we r always in dilemma...
random price behavior is fact of market.
fortunately market sometimes shows trendliness
its then u have to take advantage..
news come in market as oppurtunity and or shock...we must handle it carefully
so being a budding trader balance of 3 element is essence...so is original build up of psychology
to trade in random characteristic of market u must require some random entry system...basically oversold condition is useful here....with small amount experiment may be tried...best is watch.
in trend case..ur gun powder is dry...so shoot accurately ..money will come autometically
its third factor...unknown news event skew distribution statistically make or brake one a successful trader.
for metastock user...regression slope with confidence limit a good system..
however we r greedy enough to create own catastrophy..normal failure to book small loss ..takes as system failure

system based trading is nothing but what suits u...a clear demarkation for what and what not...
aim is +equity curve...
knowledge is useless , unless converted to money...
i personally believe pattern helps...
a set of stock[micro view ..a detail idea why each of them shall click]
and some set of condition where u can judge quicker and accurately is must.
present theme world market...buy on strength...higher rel strength is a good indicator

another concept is probabilistic model....actually toughest to implement in real market.[i treat myself lucky when market behave as i thought...when wrong how to minimise loss...]
cyclicity and volatily r imp element about which i have not solved yet.

uasish · #9 17th June 2007, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ajax

Dear uashish

All indicators are derivatives of price & volume. Once u are experienced enough to evaluate price action only , the indicators will loose their relevance.

Another thing, we keep talking of risk/ rewards ratio..
Give a thought to " reward/ effort ratio"...
By using/analysing indicators etc we may be putting in that extra effort that may not add incremental valve to decision making.

I will shortly post a review of my postion in a scrip based on price action alone. Presently back testing it with various indicators to see if it could have
yielded better results.

And yes, lunar cycles do have a effect. I am forgetting the name of a person who made a fortune by trading only following lunar cycles..
ANy way just observe Nifty movement around new moon & full moon day

Regards Ajax

PS> My posts in KISS like McGrath are purely based on price action only

Very nice of you to draw our attention to a utterly new concept.Ajax my personal problem is Unlearning.

uasish · #10 17th June 2007, 11:29 PM

Oilman,
Very relevant point := 'Cyclicity' , 'Volatility' ,traders all over the globe are trying to devise 'tools' to combat it.

Asish

Similar Threads for: Technical Indicators Do they Assist ?
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Free Technical Indicators & Plugins for Metastock & Amibroker	softtouch	Software	7	9th July 2008 10:15 AM
"Technical Indicators" For Traderji & seniors	tech.know	Technical Analysis	4	26th June 2006 10:02 PM
Query-Technical Indicators-Which is best?	manavadi	Technical Analysis	5	13th May 2006 12:35 AM
How-to articles on technical indicators and charts	Debraj	Trading Resources	2	25th February 2006 07:49 PM
Fact Finding on Indian Derivatives. Pls someone assist me here.	rishi	Introductions	3	21st February 2006 07:52 PM