Can This Be Fifth Wave?

gandharvashu · #1 11th June 2007, 10:40 PM

Hi!

I am not an expert in elliot waves, but can anybody shed light that as nifty climbed previous high of 4245 but failed to sustain there and now trading below 4245, can this be fifth wave failure pattern, which will take us down.

Elliot experts please shed light on this

uasish · #2 12th June 2007, 01:59 AM

However why is it faliure 5th ? As it didnt blow out or any other reason.

http://www.************/file/11931269...Nifty_Fut.html

This 4th broke from a contracting triangle ?

http://www.************/file/14137677..._Triangle.html

Time calculation
http://www.************/file/17380883...lculation.html

amitt29 · #3 12th June 2007, 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajak1981

It could indeed be a failiure swing.. The problem is, of what degree?
Degree is the most subjective/twisted part of elliot wave and there are no clear cut objective answers at all times.

I suggest reading about elliot oscillator and how to count waves.
There is a manual on this by Joseph of Aget fame using
the 5/35 elliot osc...
I could parrot what Joseph/williams have said, but it would be more enlightening for you to read the full file.
Bill williams has also done a rehash of elliot osc and wave counting for determining end of w5.

Anyway look at w5 of WI ultimate as a move which marks a bull market top for 2-3 years..
This kind of top will not be formed at a p.e of 10-20. Such a top is likely at a p.e of 30-50
Study any major world index to convince yourself.
IF we do go sideways now its just that..
Sideways..
for 5-6 months.
But you won't top out so easily.
We are currently at 20x trailing earnings roughly
Reason is there are value buyers waiting at 15-16x(trailing and 13-14x forward) earnings which is not too far away from here..
Go to www.************/google
search for any books by joseph , anything on aget, elliot osc, w5
then bill williams, trading chaos.
These will show you how to use the oscillators/divergence to figure out end of w5.
Just keep in mind a w5 extension gives no divergence, its , straight up, straight down..

People try to study all theories in isolation..
Avoid the temptation to do so.
Everything is connected, Its just a question of seeing the connections.

Remember always,that EW are a forecasting tool,which discount such fundamentals as such because they chart the future course of the market,being a leading indicator.

Coming to your PE thing,i think it shud be read in conjunction with inflation,interest rates(short term and long term) and GDP.Whilst trying to predict or ascertain a top(and looking at the fundamentals)you cant look at an isolated factor.

Agree with your last line in seeing the connections and judging the picture in totality.

Warm Regards
Amit.

uasish · #4 12th June 2007, 02:23 AM

EW is subjective ,becoz there is always a possibility that different analysts mark same Wave differently.
EW is based on hind sight,becoz we mark a wave after it's completion.
Still EW is benifical to some extent.
All these are personal views.

uasish · #5 12th June 2007, 02:28 AM

I can now even mark the last Top to be 3rd Wave completion,& post it if required instead of 5th (which i personally believe) & marking it as 3rd end,& i will follow all the rules of RN Elliot & Tom Joseph to mark it as 3rd, with marking all the smaller waves accurately as in book,so i the same person posted a chart on 28th Feb in this forum ,when every body was crying for Dooms day,can now unmark all those & remark the present scenario as only 3rd Wave completion.
EW is so subjective & can be done with the same set of Rules.All said & done still EW is benefical in actual trading ,in some aspect.May sound illogical if an example not cited.We all know Peak followed by Trough & so on but can we say this last Peak / Trough has ended its fall/rise temporarilly, no until the next ,or a certain % from last Pivot.Knowledge of EW can guide us may be this is the last significant bottom / top.

loosingstreak · #6 12th June 2007, 07:09 AM

So what uasish has said makes sense. All said and done EW is a post mortem of the market moves. You can label the moves after they are done and also conveniently relabel them in the future as per market movements.

For example if the market breaks out on the upside after being labelled a 5 th , it could be conveniently relabelled as a continuation of the 3rd. Is it not how it works ?

uasish · #7 12th June 2007, 07:25 AM

Long term investors are now assured by your detail analysis that we are not done with W 5.Within the limitation of Metastock we have small tools to guide us in everyday trading,2 such tools.Whether EW 5 or not ,this helps in earning/loosing.

uasish · #8 12th June 2007, 08:48 AM

Why would we try to "pique your curiosity" ,anyway your posts are informative.We all trade with our money & system,any exchange of notes or sharing if have possibility to improve my performances i am going to persue it doggedly,otherwise no point.
However did heard about you from 'Satyajit' ,when you were at Chennai,so had curisioty to interact.

uasish · #9 12th June 2007, 10:39 AM

Good Soul.

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