Swing trade for coming days: RELCAP

winstonn · #11 6th April 2007, 10:23 AM

Hi Karthik,

thanxs for your chart

Ohhh!!!! made sell signal when daily charts were showing lower trendline support

Regards,
winston

uasish · #12 6th April 2007, 11:35 AM

Winstonn,
Attached chart ,traditional idicators W%R (14) & RSI (14) ,(which is my old time favourite ) and a trendline .For your study.

The 2nd chart in next post with our latest "Insider ......." thing.

Asish

uasish · #13 6th April 2007, 11:37 AM

2nd chart in fact gave a Buy

winstonn · #14 6th April 2007, 02:03 PM

Hi Asish,

thanks for your help, can u tell me what is 'My God' in ur chart?

Regards,
Winston

uasish · #15 6th April 2007, 03:58 PM

Winstonn,
I name my codes in my son / daughter/wife/self names ,so as to remember them .Oflate started naming them as My Own / My Son's / My Daughter's .
Like wise My God's Gift are heavily volume skewed codes.These are one type
of crude indexing.

Asish

RSI · #16 6th April 2007, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstonn

hi RSI,

if we do proper money and position management , alomg with following cardinally stop loss, u will get minor loss in a bad trade.
Follow 2% rule.

Thanxs RSI, please let me know according to u if there were any wrong points.

Regards,
Winston

Hi winston,
Sorry for the late reply. There is nothing to loose a trade. Even the best trader in this world also had loosing trades and surely will have loosing trades in future also. As you rightly pointed out, position sizing with stop loss and money management will come to rescue in case of a loosing trade. Only thing is that we must do a proper postmortem of loosing trades so that we shall not repeat the same mistakes in future.

As rightly pointed out by other senior members, your sell call was without considering longer time frame charts, i.e. daily charts. There was clear bullishness in daily charts. But there is one interesting point to be noted here. I do not know how far this situation is going to materialise. Please observe the daily chart of reliance capital carefully. There is a gap left open between the low of 30/03/2007 and high of 02/04/2007. If my guess is correct, it will make an attempt to close this gap and if all goes as per your sell call, it will come down. Note, if this happens, we have a clear 1-2-3 low and we can give a safe sell call. Strictly speaking, we already have 1-2-3 sell set up. But it would be safer to watch the result of this attempt to close this gap. I feel, your call was right, but was at inappropriate time/moment. Just watch out for next few days. RSI has given divergence. 26-12 MACD moved to zero line from the top. Momentum showing negative. Let wait keeping out fingers crossed.
This is just my view. Definitely not an expert view. As alerady stated, I am trying to get a foothold in this vast ocean of knowledge, wisdom and extremely sharp thinking and fast moving minds. This is truly fascinating and challenging. Only thing is that we must not perish before learning a few tricks.
Thanks and regards
R. S. Iyer

oxusmorouz · #17 6th April 2007, 08:17 PM

Please don't mistake me but indicators like RSI,MACD etc are derived from price and show "what was" rather than "what will be" .
If we breakdown an indicator like MACD, it is only a difference between 2 moving averages. Moving averages as you know are only averages of past "n" days of close and as such have no predictive capacity...so how can an indicator derived from a MA have predictive capacity?
Similar is the case with RSI represented as {100 - 100/[1 + (Avg Gains/Average losses)]} .Average wins and losses are again historical with no predictive capacity....just like an indicator derived from it.
So stating that a stock should go up because the RSI shows a divergence or macd comes down near to the zero line is actually not the best of reasons as to why a stock should move in a particular direction.

karthikmarar · #18 6th April 2007, 09:22 PM

Hi Iyer

You are right that Winston putting his trade in the open has given us a “lesson learnt”.

Just for the learning purpose I am putting down a few more points for analysis. The gap mentioned by you may be too insignificant to have any effect.

The OBV is showing marked increase. The OBV is higher than its 5 day EMA, which is higher than the 12-day EMA showing money flowing into the stock.
The volume on the last trading session (10 point rise) was greater than that of Monday’s big fall (47 point drop).
Momentum as shown by MACD can rebound quickly. Yes, the MACD line dropped below the zero line but can recover just as quickly.. a zero line reject.
The stock has still not violated the current intermediate up trend. So the trend line assumes more importance now. The area around 605 – 614 is important. Below 605 means a trend line break and pivot break. Then definitely you will see 580 easily

.

Enclosing the chart again showing the support and resistance line. I consider the support and resistance lines as elastic bands and not as as rigid lines. The operators are known to push the price to levels just below the resistance line to get out the weak ones. So the price just dips below the resistance lines and then recovers fast.

Regards

Karthik

uasish · #19 6th April 2007, 11:01 PM

Want to participate in this healthy discussion on Rel Cap chart ,by attaching a chart.
Observations for extreme short term:
March 9th High to 16th Low = 68.95 & 26th March High to 2nd April Low = 69.50 Both was of almost same magnitude price wise correction ,& time wise 6 & 5 days hence it is reasonable to infer the price & time wise correction is least possibility for to-morrow ,why i am highlighting this ,becoz to me the weekly trend is negative until last data input.
My upside calculation is 664.00 to 662.00.I will never short until my "Laxman Rekha " @ 610.15 is breached .My another method says 609.15,is last support.

Asish

karthikmarar · #20 6th April 2007, 11:12 PM

Oxy

Agree with you that the charts and the Indicators show “What was” rather than “What will be” and also that the indicators are derivatives of the price action.

But the belief that the Indicators provide the probability factors is the basic foundation of TA.( I mean the conventional one. Nowadays it has become necessary to differentiate as the TA guys subscribe to different school of thought, conventional, EW, Gann blah blah).

It is all the probability factor rather than predictive factor. The MACD falling below zero indicates that there is high probability that the stock will go down further. This probability is derived from the past price action and definitely the future is not guaranteed. So we try to put the money where the probability is high and protect ourselves with proper stop loss is case the probability does not become reality.

Warm regards

Similar Threads for: Swing trade for coming days: RELCAP
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Martin pring is coming to India	rahulg77	Technical Analysis	10	5th October 2006 10:02 PM
swing trade for tomorrow	Rounak	Stocks & Shares	5	24th May 2006 08:46 AM
Stock ideas for the coming budget	sandeep.poddar	Introductions	1	21st February 2006 04:06 PM
What you think about sensex in the coming quaters	mvlokesh	Introductions	1	1st September 2005 02:34 PM