Market Forecast

koshyssj · #1 15th March 2007, 07:24 AM

dear members
From today i will be posting market forecasts every day in this thread. please watch this thread and comment on the forecasts made by me.
koshy

koshyssj · #2 15th March 2007, 07:26 AM

The market made a range about yesterday. The impact of the reversal was huge due to weak global markets. Technically speaking, market is hitting all support levels and a relief rally starts when it hits another lower support. This is just because that the profit takers and short sellers take that opportunity to buy at lower levels and book profit at higher levels. Now, we have a major support at 3575 and short recovery can be expected today. If the nifty closes below 3705, the bears will be the winner.

Today opening will be flat or gap up and if it remains above 3670 keep long with a stop loss of 3645+ for 3705-3740.Break below 3660-& sustain below this level , go short with SL 3675 for target of 3585-then 3530. I expect the market to show some smart recovery today particularly in the afternoon session. all traders, reap good returns today from the smart recovery expected.

mah_kulkarni · #3 15th March 2007, 08:25 AM

hi all
i am a intraday trader
hopeing o get some tips here

koshyssj · #4 16th March 2007, 06:10 AM

Stocks lost the ground in the last hour due to strong hammering by the short sellers. Since it was expected, most of the traders exited their positions when the fall begun. despite strong international markets, the indian markets are making investors lose their money and this situation shows that the market is still uncertain where to go.. if the market closes below 3690 and if it is broken during intraday, i presume that another blood bath is on the way. The market seems to have a major support at 3585+ and it will remain in the range of 3585-3695. If it starts climbing (relief rally), short sellers will hammer it down again.

Today, opening will be falt or gap down and if it remains above 3660 keep long with a SL of 3645+ for 3695-3720 and a break below 3650 & sustain below this level, go short with SL 3680 for a target of 3615 and 3585.

koshyssj · #5 18th March 2007, 07:41 PM

The ordinary investor is currently staying away from the market, just because he doesn't know the behavior of the market.. negative openings.. huge volatility.. uncertain closing are all the mantra of the market now.. We were boasting of globalisation and the impact of globalisation came in a big way int he indian market now.. global markets are weak and the indian market follow suit.. rising inflation all over the world, untimely price increase of the cement by the companies and the government action.., rising interest rates are all playing their part in the bear market.. The market was again hammered well by the short sellers and it is going to be blood bath again... Technically speaking, market is in a highly oversold condition and a short recovery can prop up market any time from 3525+,so going short in panic or below 3550 can be harmful. on the higher side if market holds on above 3650+ on closing basis then it can favor bulls for short term. It looks like that after a consolidation, market may take u turn,but this is bull trap market and every high may face hammer.

Regarding Monday opening, it may open flat and if it remains above 3620+, keep long with a stop loss of 3605 for 3675-3700. A break below 3615- & sustain below this level , go short with SL 3630 for target of 3560-then 3510. Since the market is still uncertain, i Advise all to better avoid the market and wait for a clear market direction....

RAMDAS · #6 18th March 2007, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koshyssj

Technically speaking, market is in a highly oversold condition and a short recovery can prop up market any time from 3525+,so going short in panic or below 3550 can be harmful. on the higher side if market holds on above 3650+ on closing basis then it can favor bulls for short term. It looks like that after a consolidation, market may take u turn,but this is bull trap market and every high may face hammer.

Regarding Monday opening, it may open flat and if it remains above 3620+, keep long with a stop loss of 3605 for 3675-3700. A break below 3615- & sustain below this level , go short with SL 3630 for target of 3560-then 3510. Since the market is still uncertain, i Advise all to better avoid the market and wait for a clear market direction....

Hi koshyssj,

What you are saying is correct above 3650. UP movement will start.
If market close below 3570 it is very BAD Sign since breaking of DMA200.
Currently, market is holding above DMA200. which is saying current UP trend is intact , and correction is healthy.
BUT if market breakes DMA200 (which is currently 3575) then.. investor will run away from market... it is RED flag for big institute and mutual funds which fail to hold market above DMA200. and investor may loose confidance in market. which will directly affect investment related money flow to Mutual fund. and money is likely to flow out of mutual funds and other institutions.
Growth story will collaps. till now Bears have enjoy, they have done good work to brought many stock to good attractive levels now Bulls have to be active or they will be dead.

swagat86 · #7 19th March 2007, 01:15 AM

Did uc the February candle on Monthly of Nifty???

its bearish Engulfing. And this months closing will confirm whether its a Three outside Down pattern.

Implication- 2-3 months in RED.

Thanks

koshyssj · #8 19th March 2007, 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAMDAS

Hi koshyssj,
BUT if market breakes DMA200 (which is currently 3575) then.. investor will run away from market... it is RED flag for big institute and mutual funds which fail to hold market above DMA200. and investor may loose confidance in market. which will directly affect investment related money flow to Mutual fund. and money is likely to flow out of mutual funds and other institutions.
Growth story will collaps. till now Bears have enjoy, they have done good work to brought many stock to good attractive levels now Bulls have to be active or they will be dead.

thanks sir for the reply. i also expect the same story.. if the bulls are not going to be active, then the growth story of india will be a sad one and fin.min will have to take some measures to continue the growth rate.....

koshyssj · #9 19th March 2007, 06:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAMDAS

Hi koshyssj,
BUT if market breakes DMA200 (which is currently 3575) then.. investor will run away from market... it is RED flag for big institute and mutual funds which fail to hold market above DMA200. and investor may loose confidance in market. which will directly affect investment related money flow to Mutual fund. and money is likely to flow out of mutual funds and other institutions.
Growth story will collaps. till now Bears have enjoy, they have done good work to brought many stock to good attractive levels now Bulls have to be active or they will be dead.

thanks sir for the reply. i also expect the same story.. if the bulls are not going to be active, then the growth story of india will be a sad one and fin.min will have to take some measures to continue the growth rate.....

aca_trader · #10 19th March 2007, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koshyssj

thanks sir for the reply. i also expect the same story.. if the bulls are not going to be active, then the growth story of india will be a sad one and fin.min will have to take some measures to continue the growth rate.....

A bull market does not cause slump in growth rate. It's always the other way round, actual or perceived.

Best Regards,
--Ashish

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